Analysis: Dow Jones projected to crash to 5500 level in 2017

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  • mce
    Confirmed User
    • Jun 2012
    • 3915
    #1

    Analysis: Dow Jones projected to crash to 5500 level in 2017

    Don't say you weren't warned.

    http://etfdailynews.com/2016/01/13/w...-5500-by-2017/

    Personally, I think the 2017 timeline is a bit aggressive. I'm thinking more around the 2018 timeframe.

    Regardless, it's time to give hard assets a second and third look...

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    • HeadPimp
      Bad Mo-Fo
      • Jul 2001
      • 2772
      #2
      For a non-institutional investor, playing the stock market is about as good as playing slots.

      You will never win against computers that execute trades of thousands of shares in millisecond intervals.

        Comment

        • rowan
          Too lazy to set a custom title
          • Mar 2002
          • 17393
          #3
          Originally posted by HeadPimp
          For a non-institutional investor, playing the stock market is about as good as playing slots.

          You will never win against computers that execute trades of thousands of shares in millisecond intervals.
          The large majority of humans are also totally shitty at predictions, even if they're an 'expert' in their field. It's an unfortunate part of human nature that we marvel when an expert gets something right, but quickly forget when they (more often) get it wrong.

            Comment

            • Rochard
              Jägermeister Test Pilot
              • Dec 2001
              • 75733
              #4
              So someone I've never met is pointing me to a website I've never heard of trying to convince me something I refuse to believe.

              Sure.
              Herschel Savage
              Brooklyn, NY

                Comment

                • muthisdev
                  Confirmed User
                  • Jan 2016
                  • 300
                  #5
                  Originally posted by HeadPimp
                  For a non-institutional investor, playing the stock market is about as good as playing slots.

                  You will never win against computers that execute trades of thousands of shares in millisecond intervals.
                  If you are in for the long game, it is okay. Stock Market has better rate of return than leaving money in a bank.

                  Just don't withdraw from stock market during a bust.
                  <?= base64_decode("aHR0cDovL211dGhpc2Rldi5jb20v") ?>

                    Comment

                    • mce
                      Confirmed User
                      • Jun 2012
                      • 3915
                      #6
                      Originally posted by Rochard
                      So someone I've never met is pointing me to a website I've never heard of trying to convince me something I refuse to believe.

                      Sure.
                      Just remember to bump this thread when the DJIA crosses the 7500 mark on its way to the 5K-ish range.

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                        • Paul Markham
                          Too old to care
                          • Jun 2001
                          • 52942
                          #7
                          Originally posted by muthisdev
                          If you are in for the long game, it is okay. Stock Market has better rate of return than leaving money in a bank.

                          Just don't withdraw from stock market during a bust.
                          True words.

                          Just invest in long term stocks and leave the gamblers alone.

                          The problem is the lack of control we have over these gamblers.



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                            • pornguy
                              Too lazy to set a custom title
                              • Mar 2003
                              • 62912
                              #8
                              My parents did some investing when I was a kid. actually starting before I was born. They would invest about 12 dollars a month in bluechips. My moms portfolio is now worth more than 500k. Considering that she has been retired for 17 years thats not bad.
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                                • djroof
                                  JuicyDevils.gr Owner
                                  • Jan 2004
                                  • 25504
                                  #9
                                  thanks for the infos...

                                    Comment

                                    • ITraffic
                                      Confirmed User
                                      • Jul 2013
                                      • 2725
                                      #10
                                      Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economists | Business | The Guardian

                                        Comment

                                        • tammix
                                          Confirmed User
                                          • Apr 2006
                                          • 2164
                                          #11
                                          Originally posted by Paul Markham
                                          True words.

                                          Just invest in long term stocks and leave the gamblers alone.

                                          The problem is the lack of control we have over these gamblers.
                                          playing PowerBall is ok?

                                            Comment

                                            • HowlingWulf
                                              Confirmed User
                                              • Nov 2001
                                              • 1662
                                              #12
                                              Don't we see these doom predictions every year?
                                              Then when they're finally right they tout that for years and years...
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                                                • PR_Glen
                                                  Confirmed User
                                                  • Oct 2006
                                                  • 9058
                                                  #13
                                                  Originally posted by mce
                                                  Just remember to bump this thread when the DJIA crosses the 7500 mark on its way to the 5K-ish range.
                                                  how about we bump the other 500 threads about doom and gloom in the markets over the past 15 years instead? Nobody here predicted the mortgage crisis thing in 2008 either..
                                                  webmaster at pimproll dot com

                                                    Comment

                                                    • GFED
                                                      Confirmed User
                                                      • May 2002
                                                      • 8121
                                                      #14


                                                      Protect yourself.
                                                      Covered calls, protective puts, short indexes.
                                                      https://www.flow.page/savethechildren

                                                        Comment

                                                        • MaDalton
                                                          I am Amazing Content!
                                                          • Feb 2004
                                                          • 39861
                                                          #15
                                                          i always base my investments on the GFY experts opinions...
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                                                            • VRPdommy
                                                              Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                              • Oct 2014
                                                              • 13000
                                                              #16
                                                              I predict that the false prophets will die from the lack of attention by the end of 2017.

                                                                Comment

                                                                • ruff
                                                                  I have a plan B
                                                                  • Aug 2004
                                                                  • 5507
                                                                  #17
                                                                  Buy Bitcoin today, don't say I didn't warn you.
                                                                  CryptoFeeds

                                                                    Comment

                                                                    • GFED
                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                      • May 2002
                                                                      • 8121
                                                                      #18
                                                                      Originally posted by ruff
                                                                      Buy Bitcoin today, don't say I didn't warn you.
                                                                      Yes, not a bad idea to turtle into something our fed has less control of. I've got a recurring deposit at coinbase. I think bitcoin is a valid investment.
                                                                      https://www.flow.page/savethechildren

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                                                                        • OneHungLo
                                                                          So Fucking Banned
                                                                          • May 2001
                                                                          • 40906
                                                                          #19
                                                                          Originally posted by PR_Glen
                                                                          how about we bump the other 500 threads about doom and gloom in the markets over the past 15 years instead? Nobody here predicted the mortgage crisis thing in 2008 either..
                                                                          Exactly. The same guys were telling us to build bunkers in our back yards and melt our gold down for bullets in 2001, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2015 and now, in 1 year the Dow will lose 75% of its value.

                                                                          If you're a trader, I would be shorting but if you're not retiring in the next 5-10 years and you're a long-term investor, you'll be fine.

                                                                            Comment

                                                                            • Barry-xlovecam
                                                                              It's 42
                                                                              • Jun 2010
                                                                              • 18083
                                                                              #20
                                                                              How low will she go?



                                                                              I remember the DJI was less than 1000 for some time during the Regan recession in 1982 or so. The bottom may be 9000 this time IDK really .... That is a lot of paper wealth destroyed.

                                                                                Comment

                                                                                • mce
                                                                                  Confirmed User
                                                                                  • Jun 2012
                                                                                  • 3915
                                                                                  #21
                                                                                  Originally posted by Barry-xlovecam


                                                                                  I remember the DJI was less than 1000 for some time during the Regan recession in 1982 or so. The bottom may be 9000 this time IDK really .... That is a lot of paper wealth destroyed.
                                                                                  I feel bad for people who have a lot of MARGIN EXPOSURE.

                                                                                  Ouch........

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                                                                                    • ilnjscb
                                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                                      • Jun 2009
                                                                                      • 8972
                                                                                      #22
                                                                                      Originally posted by GFED


                                                                                      Protect yourself.
                                                                                      Covered calls, protective puts, short indexes.
                                                                                      short naked, write naked calls, really risk it all! woooooo!!

                                                                                        Comment

                                                                                        • mce
                                                                                          Confirmed User
                                                                                          • Jun 2012
                                                                                          • 3915
                                                                                          #23
                                                                                          Originally posted by ilnjscb
                                                                                          short naked, write naked calls, really risk it all! woooooo!!
                                                                                          Hey.. high risks, high reward, right?

                                                                                          Right

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                                                                                            • Joshua G
                                                                                              dumb libs love censorship
                                                                                              • Jul 2008
                                                                                              • 8198
                                                                                              #24
                                                                                              i agree its a beginning of a period of sideways to down movement over the next several years. The oil crash & its bankruptcies will not resolve itself in only months. Chinas true picture is sketchy, wont resolve in only months.

                                                                                              The fed has no choice but to raise rates. they been at zero over a decade & its killing the savings rate, generating fresh bubbles in stocks & real estate. whats the Fed gonna do if the economy slows while rates are at zero? they will be helpless. gonna need a new government bailout! so the Fed cannot keep the bull going forever, & raising rates is not bullish for stocks.

                                                                                              great time to be in cash, relax, wait for the time to get great dividend paying stocks at great prices. my eye is on Exxon & duke energy. Their charts are seriously outperforming the market at the start of this year!

                                                                                                Comment

                                                                                                • ContentPimp
                                                                                                  Confirmed User
                                                                                                  • Nov 2008
                                                                                                  • 3184
                                                                                                  #25
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                                                                                                    • RummyBoy
                                                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                                                      • Dec 2009
                                                                                                      • 2157
                                                                                                      #26
                                                                                                      Interesting to see what happens this year. If you search youtube youll see Kiyosaki has been predicting a massive meltdown in 2016 for many years.

                                                                                                        Comment

                                                                                                        • mce
                                                                                                          Confirmed User
                                                                                                          • Jun 2012
                                                                                                          • 3915
                                                                                                          #27
                                                                                                          Originally posted by OneHungLo
                                                                                                          Exactly. The same guys were telling us to build bunkers in our back yards and melt our gold down for bullets in 2001, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2015 and now, in 1 year the Dow will lose 75% of its value.

                                                                                                          If you're a trader, I would be shorting but if you're not retiring in the next 5-10 years and you're a long-term investor, you'll be fine.
                                                                                                          The problem with forecasts is precise timing. Still, it pays to see the larger picture since the implications can be DEVASTATING.

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                                                                                                            • woj
                                                                                                              <&(©¿©)&>
                                                                                                              • Jul 2002
                                                                                                              • 47882
                                                                                                              #28
                                                                                                              Originally posted by RummyBoy
                                                                                                              Interesting to see what happens this year. If you search youtube youll see Kiyosaki has been predicting a massive meltdown in 2016 for many years.
                                                                                                              Kiyosaki? really? that guy is a nobody, he wrote a somewhat popular fiction book 20 years ago, and then milked it for all he could... he has zero qualifications to be considered an expert on any topic, let alone the US stock market...
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                                                                                                                • ilnjscb
                                                                                                                  Confirmed User
                                                                                                                  • Jun 2009
                                                                                                                  • 8972
                                                                                                                  #29
                                                                                                                  Originally posted by woj
                                                                                                                  Kiyosaki? really? that guy is a nobody, he wrote a somewhat popular fiction book 20 years ago, and then milked it for all he could... he has zero qualifications to be considered an expert on any topic, let alone the US stock market...
                                                                                                                  Ummmm maybe. I thought exactly what you say above, literally thought the guy was a fraud, then he went on a show and said, buy silver. Over the next 3 year, silver went up like 400% and took a while to come down. He could have been lucky, but it is really hard to call the metals markets like that. If he makes another good call, I'll suspend my skepticism.

                                                                                                                    Comment

                                                                                                                    • Barry-xlovecam
                                                                                                                      It's 42
                                                                                                                      • Jun 2010
                                                                                                                      • 18083
                                                                                                                      #30
                                                                                                                      2981.03 or about 16% loss in the DJI in 52 weeks ...

                                                                                                                        Comment

                                                                                                                        • mce
                                                                                                                          Confirmed User
                                                                                                                          • Jun 2012
                                                                                                                          • 3915
                                                                                                                          #31
                                                                                                                          Looks more like a slow motion wreck....

                                                                                                                          I wonder how the looming oil industry-related bankruptcies are going to impact the overall market.

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                                                                                                                            • mce
                                                                                                                              Confirmed User
                                                                                                                              • Jun 2012
                                                                                                                              • 3915
                                                                                                                              #32
                                                                                                                              Anyone notice that when the market hits the skids, there's always talk of Central Bank meddling which shoots the market back up again?

                                                                                                                              I wonder how long this will keep up.......

                                                                                                                              Aren't some euro economies in recession already?

                                                                                                                              Anyway, the FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEMS forcing stock markets down aren't going anywhere anytime soon: Early 2016 Global market correction arrives as expected ? Stock news That Matters

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                                                                                                                                • mce
                                                                                                                                  Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                  • Jun 2012
                                                                                                                                  • 3915
                                                                                                                                  #33
                                                                                                                                  Notice that the 2008 had a run up which also featured small crashes and major pops.... That's a dead giveaway.

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                                                                                                                                    • bushwacker
                                                                                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                      • Jun 2002
                                                                                                                                      • 2817
                                                                                                                                      #34
                                                                                                                                      Yep it's definitely on the way to 5000

                                                                                                                                        Comment

                                                                                                                                        • rabbit
                                                                                                                                          Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                          • Jul 2003
                                                                                                                                          • 2124
                                                                                                                                          #35
                                                                                                                                          even a broken clock is right twice a day... plus you can dig up a shitload of such articles from every year without fail...

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                                                                                                                                            • rabbit
                                                                                                                                              Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                              • Jul 2003
                                                                                                                                              • 2124
                                                                                                                                              #36
                                                                                                                                              not saying market wont correct...or crash... but that most of these charlatans have no skin in the game and nobody calls them out when their 'predictions' fail. market is random, pure n simple. everybody sees patterns, but market is all about chaotic randomness. sure, there's order in chaos, but most of the patterns we see or deduct are not really there.

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                                                                                                                                                • Barry-xlovecam
                                                                                                                                                  It's 42
                                                                                                                                                  • Jun 2010
                                                                                                                                                  • 18083
                                                                                                                                                  #37
                                                                                                                                                  A lot of money was made on the volatility



                                                                                                                                                  You are talking 2/3 of the equity value lost in 2017.



                                                                                                                                                  That is twice the percentage loss of the Great Depression.


                                                                                                                                                  That is like predicting the Messiah. 99% unlikely.

                                                                                                                                                    Comment

                                                                                                                                                    • Goethe
                                                                                                                                                      So Fuckin' Bored
                                                                                                                                                      • Nov 2014
                                                                                                                                                      • 1101
                                                                                                                                                      #38
                                                                                                                                                      I trade. Long and short hedges on individual stocks and indices. Keep it tight and don't allow a position to get away from you. I use this company: IG.com
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                                                                                                                                                        • The Porn Nerd
                                                                                                                                                          Living The Dream
                                                                                                                                                          • Jun 2009
                                                                                                                                                          • 19784
                                                                                                                                                          #39
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                                                                                                                                                            • Paul Markham
                                                                                                                                                              Too old to care
                                                                                                                                                              • Jun 2001
                                                                                                                                                              • 52942
                                                                                                                                                              #40
                                                                                                                                                              Predicting a financial crisis is on its way is easy. There's always one its way. Getting the year spot on isn't that hard.

                                                                                                                                                              It will always be like this with uncontrolled financial markets, overspending, overborrowing and gambling a $100 is really worth $150.

                                                                                                                                                              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...banking_crises



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                                                                                                                                                                • mce
                                                                                                                                                                  Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                                                  • Jun 2012
                                                                                                                                                                  • 3915
                                                                                                                                                                  #41
                                                                                                                                                                  There's always a nice little run up before the BLACK SWAN shows up

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                                                                                                                                                                    • DBS.US
                                                                                                                                                                      Geo Cities
                                                                                                                                                                      • Aug 2003
                                                                                                                                                                      • 11843
                                                                                                                                                                      #42
                                                                                                                                                                      Buy when they cry
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                                                                                                                                                                        • ITraffic
                                                                                                                                                                          Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                                                          • Jul 2013
                                                                                                                                                                          • 2725
                                                                                                                                                                          #43
                                                                                                                                                                          Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

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                                                                                                                                                                            • rowan
                                                                                                                                                                              Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                                                                                                              • Mar 2002
                                                                                                                                                                              • 17393
                                                                                                                                                                              #44
                                                                                                                                                                              Originally posted by mce
                                                                                                                                                                              There's always a nice little run up before the BLACK SWAN shows up
                                                                                                                                                                              Think about it, by definition, it would not be a black swan event, if there's signs of it approaching...

                                                                                                                                                                              I was reading about a physicist who did some fancy math and predicted the GFC, before it happened, and regressively, prior crashes such as the late 90s tech crash, and the 1990s housing crash in Japan. Can't remember details but it was some sort of oscillation that is usually related to physics data. Even these "black swans" have clear indicators.

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                                                                                                                                                                                • mce
                                                                                                                                                                                  Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Jun 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • 3915
                                                                                                                                                                                  #45
                                                                                                                                                                                  Originally posted by rowan
                                                                                                                                                                                  Think about it, by definition, it would not be a black swan event, if there's signs of it approaching...

                                                                                                                                                                                  I was reading about a physicist who did some fancy math and predicted the GFC, before it happened, and regressively, prior crashes such as the late 90s tech crash, and the 1990s housing crash in Japan. Can't remember details but it was some sort of oscillation that is usually related to physics data. Even these "black swans" have clear indicators.
                                                                                                                                                                                  All I can say is... After all the tears have dried... Don't tell me I didn't try to warn you all.

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                                                                                                                                                                                    • crockett
                                                                                                                                                                                      in a van by the river
                                                                                                                                                                                      • May 2003
                                                                                                                                                                                      • 76818
                                                                                                                                                                                      #46
                                                                                                                                                                                      Every election year they do the doom and gloom about the stock market crashing..
                                                                                                                                                                                      In November, you can vote for America's next president or its first dictator.

                                                                                                                                                                                        Comment

                                                                                                                                                                                        • mce
                                                                                                                                                                                          Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Jun 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                          • 3915
                                                                                                                                                                                          #47
                                                                                                                                                                                          Originally posted by crockett
                                                                                                                                                                                          Every election year they do the doom and gloom about the stock market crashing..
                                                                                                                                                                                          So you're saying it will never crash?

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                                                                                                                                                                                            • crockett
                                                                                                                                                                                              in a van by the river
                                                                                                                                                                                              • May 2003
                                                                                                                                                                                              • 76818
                                                                                                                                                                                              #48
                                                                                                                                                                                              Originally posted by mce
                                                                                                                                                                                              So you're saying it will never crash?
                                                                                                                                                                                              chicken little was eventually right wasn't he?
                                                                                                                                                                                              In November, you can vote for America's next president or its first dictator.

                                                                                                                                                                                                Comment

                                                                                                                                                                                                • OneHungLo
                                                                                                                                                                                                  So Fucking Banned
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • May 2001
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • 40906
                                                                                                                                                                                                  #49
                                                                                                                                                                                                  As the Dow is about to pass 18,000...

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                                                                                                                                                                                                    • bushwacker
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Jun 2002
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • 2817
                                                                                                                                                                                                      #50

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