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slapass

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#1

Apple stock

12-15-2015, 03:47 AM

I think now is the time to start thinking they are over. Beats? Watch thing? And is anyone excited to get the iphone 7 if there is one? I think they will do a Nokia/Blackberry type of thing from here on out.

I am only doing this as I have been watching them for a short for a while and they seem to have stalled. It would be nice to see a new device that kills them off on the horizon.
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Shap

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#2

12-15-2015, 03:53 AM

Originally posted by slapass

I think now is the time to start thinking they are over. Beats? Watch thing? And is anyone excited to get the iphone 7 if there is one? I think they will do a Nokia/Blackberry type of thing from here on out.

I am only doing this as I have been watching them for a short for a while and they seem to have stalled. It would be nice to see a new device that kills them off on the horizon.

Apple still have a very loyal following. I believe one of the most loyal followings ever created. It would take repeated abuses of that trust they've earned to kill them off.

That said they are not the apple of old. Everything used to work just "perfectly". It was easy. It was simple. It was beautiful. Now that's been complicated. The software, the hardware, it just isn't running as smooth. They have problems. There is no doubt about that.

Will be interesting to see where they go from here.
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#3

12-15-2015, 04:00 AM

i'm still 75% up (but it was more than 100% earlier this year)

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BIGTYMER

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#4

12-15-2015, 04:06 AM

They've built an ecosystem and that ecosystem isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

There's still time to turn a nice profit. China.
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#5

12-15-2015, 04:22 AM

yeah it was one thing in the 80s/90s when they were primarily a PC company. Today they have a lot of income streams & an ecosystem, like another pointed out. they also have like a hundred billion in cash, some absurd number. That cash alone provides a floor to valuation. i would say however that there is still upside left but one must pay close attention to their performance overseas as this is their primary future growth.
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slapass

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#6

12-15-2015, 04:23 AM

I understand what you are saying. I have an iphone right next to me and the ipad is on the charger. I use them everyday. I just bought the iphone 6s and it sat in the box for a week before I set it up. There was no excitement. I knew some stuff would be f'ed up and need to be redone for it to work the same and there was nothing new that I was looking forward to.
Same with the ipad. I use it to surf the web or read. I have pretty done all the games that I thought were cool and the news ones are not really that different. I think the whole app thing has slowed down.
I don't see where anyone is going to go stand inline to get the latest and greatest at this point.
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#7

12-15-2015, 04:28 AM

Originally posted by slapass

I understand what you are saying. I have an iphone right next to me and the ipad is on the charger. I use them everyday. I just bought the iphone 6s and it sat in the box for a week before I set it up. There was no excitement. I knew some stuff would be f'ed up and need to be redone for it to work the same and there was nothing new that I was looking forward to.
Same with the ipad. I use it to surf the web or read. I have pretty done all the games that I thought were cool and the news ones are not really that different. I think the whole app thing has slowed down.
I don't see where anyone is going to go stand inline to get the latest and greatest at this point.

People don't need to stand in line for Apple to profit.

You owning multiple Apple devices proves my point.
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slapass

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#8

12-15-2015, 04:38 AM

Originally posted by BIGTYMER

People don't need to stand in line for Apple to profit.

You owning multiple Apple devices proves my point.

I used to buy almost every change. I pass on my old one and get the latest. I have no idea how old my ipad is but it is a few back. My phone was a 5s so skipped one there. My family has moved to android with more on their way.
I am not saying they are out of business, I am pointing out that the sizzle is gone. Margins will start to shrink. They might continue to waste money on dumb ideas. Then we will see the company start to turn over.
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BIGTYMER

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#9

12-15-2015, 04:51 AM

Originally posted by slapass

I used to buy almost every change. I pass on my old one and get the latest. I have no idea how old my ipad is but it is a few back. My phone was a 5s so skipped one there. My family has moved to android with more on their way.
I am not saying they are out of business, I am pointing out that the sizzle is gone. Margins will start to shrink. They might continue to waste money on dumb ideas. Then we will see the company start to turn over.

I feel you. I started with an iPhone and now use a Galaxy. But I also know a few people who switched to Android and went back to iPhones. For simplicity or status? Maybe both. It's still the Mercedes.

Nothing lasts forever. But as far as the stock goes I think it still has tons of potential.
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#10

12-15-2015, 05:09 AM

as long as they move away from the huge ipads and pens then they have a chance. if they don't we might be in for a surprise. people are fanatics about apple but that can't go on if they make stupid decisions. fanatic does not mean stupid
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#11

12-15-2015, 05:14 AM

When I worked for Apple, they told me to buy stock when it was low mid-double digits, right before the iPhone came out and right about the time when the new iMacs were getting popular. I didn't buy any and regret it.

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#12

12-15-2015, 05:26 AM

Originally posted by slapass

I used to buy almost every change. I pass on my old one and get the latest. I have no idea how old my ipad is but it is a few back. My phone was a 5s so skipped one there. My family has moved to android with more on their way.
I am not saying they are out of business, I am pointing out that the sizzle is gone. Margins will start to shrink. They might continue to waste money on dumb ideas. Then we will see the company start to turn over.

That's anecdotal. People are not switching their iPhones to android, if anything it's the other way around.
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#13

12-15-2015, 07:13 AM

the iphone 6/6s had pre sale numbers over 10 million alone. Even if apple made only $100 in profit per unit (which sounds low, but just for maths sake) Leaves them with a cool 1 billion in profits. I think your not as much of a visionary as you think you are...
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#14

12-15-2015, 07:27 AM

I've been wanting to buy the new iMac 27's since they came out a year or so ago, but my current iMac 27's work fine so I haven't felt the need to. Same for my iPhone 5. I only upgraded from the iPhone 4 when I broke it. The 6 and 6S look nice and have faster processors etc, but since my current iPhone 5 suits me well still, I put off switching. Maybe when they 7's come out...
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#15

12-15-2015, 07:30 AM

Originally posted by poncabare

the iphone 6/6s had pre sale numbers over 10 million alone. Even if apple made only $100 in profit per unit (which sounds low, but just for maths sake) Leaves them with a cool 1 billion in profits. I think your not as much of a visionary as you think you are...

problem is that growth in the west kinda stalled... most of the growth comes from emerging markets, and that will eventually stall too... there is still probably some $$ to be made short term, but I doubt they will be a major player with high profit margins like they are now in 10 years...

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#16

12-15-2015, 07:42 AM

Originally posted by slapass

I think now is the time to start thinking they are over. Beats? Watch thing? And is anyone excited to get the iphone 7 if there is one? I think they will do a Nokia/Blackberry type of thing from here on out.

I am only doing this as I have been watching them for a short for a while and they seem to have stalled. It would be nice to see a new device that kills them off on the horizon.

have you seen the Samsung Galaxy S6 Edge ?

OMFG i didnt want to let that thing out of my hands in the store
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MiamiBoyz

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#17

12-15-2015, 09:29 AM

Originally posted by slapass

I think now is the time to start thinking they are over. Beats? Watch thing? And is anyone excited to get the iphone 7 if there is one? I think they will do a Nokia/Blackberry type of thing from here on out.

I am only doing this as I have been watching them for a short for a while and they seem to have stalled. It would be nice to see a new device that kills them off on the horizon.

I love seeing the zombies walking around with piece of shit watch on knowing full well that it's already obsolete before they even strapped it on...

Apple has made billions by cannibalizing its own customers and conditioning them to thinking that it is perfectly normal to replace all their electronics yearly.

Wasteful if not downright unethical really.

Their cash cow iPhone now is not the only or best option...that ship has sailed and along with it their monopoly in that area which is slowly but surely declining each quarter.

The aforementioned watch has flopped and only everyone I have talked to say they can do without it and will getting OFF the yearly Apple upgrade treadmill.
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#18

12-15-2015, 09:30 AM

Originally posted by Muad'Dib

have you seen the Samsung Galaxy S6 Edge ?

OMFG i didnt want to let that thing out of my hands in the store

Yes, thin, sexy, and fast.

iPhone looks like a toy next to it.
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#19

12-15-2015, 09:49 AM

Go walk past their store at any time in the mall and its always packed to the gills...look across the way at the windows store and there's like 5 people in it.

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#20

12-15-2015, 10:04 AM

I have $4,000 of Apple devices. Plus a $99/year Apple Developer membership.

I have no Apple stock.

No one went to see the Steve Jobs movie.

Have you ever called 800-MY-APPLE and ever gotten more than MBA Speak, and an argument?

That's about all the math I need to do in support your post that started this thread.

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#21

12-15-2015, 10:07 AM

I also have a Galaxy 5 phone. I use it to test the Apps I've written for Android, and sell on Google Play.

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#22

12-15-2015, 10:10 AM

As an Apple Developer, the next "thing" is tvOS.

Problem is, ISPs, from cable to telephone, aren't prepared for the bandwidth.

Last week, I had a 90-minute visit with a suit at the cable ISP for my Apartment Bldgs' WiFi.

Watching TV over Internet for us 400 families here ain't going to happen.

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#23

12-15-2015, 10:17 AM

Originally posted by NickBaer

As an Apple Developer, the next "thing" is tvOS.

Problem is, ISPs, from cable to telephone, aren't prepared for the bandwidth.

Last week, I had a 90-minute visit with a suit at the cable ISP for my Apartment Bldgs' WiFi.

Watching TV over Internet for us 400 families here ain't going to happen.

The AppleTV was horrible when I was still working there, hope it's at least usable now..
They even lied about playing 640x480 from iTunes when it was just scaled 320x240.

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#24

12-15-2015, 10:34 AM

I have lost so much money shorting AAPL and FB. Made back and then some with my TWTR short that I posted on GFY. Called it at the the top and rode it all the way down. Would be so much fun to short AAPL and ride it down (even though I do love the products). This might be the time. There is no better feeling than watching a tech stock implode if you are on the right side of the trade.
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#25

12-15-2015, 05:08 PM

Originally posted by woj

problem is that growth in the west kinda stalled... most of the growth comes from emerging markets, and that will eventually stall too... there is still probably some $$ to be made short term, but I doubt they will be a major player with high profit margins like they are now in 10 years...

some $$ to be made? cmon dude, they make billions on every phone release in straight profit.
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#26

12-15-2015, 06:47 PM

I'm pretty sure Steve Jobs would hate the Apple Watch. It doesn't do anything particularly well. There is no reason for it to exist.

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#27

12-15-2015, 08:44 PM

I have some Apple stock so hopefully they keep doing well!

Sad part is I thought about getting it 7 years ago but I decided to wait, still kicking myself for that!!
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#28

12-15-2015, 09:23 PM

go long on appl
If they are able to pull off a car, battery factory, beat fitbit with wearables and come up with something new for the iphone7 they will be back on the rise. That a lot of "ifs" but one of them may be enough for a good push.

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#29

12-16-2015, 05:37 AM

Originally posted by poncabare

some $$ to be made? cmon dude, they make billions on every phone release in straight profit.

We might be talking about two different things here. Sure they will still make money for a while. But the premium they receive for being the "it" product is drying up. The huge growth as people discover them is gone. They have a 15 PE which means they need to grow at 15% and retain their high margins. This is what I don't think is possible. The smart phone is becoming a commodity. Ford makes tons of cash and has a 5 PE. They also are growing in emerging markets. Want to get excited over Ford stock?
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#30

12-16-2015, 08:11 AM

Originally posted by VikingMan

I have lost so much money shorting AAPL and FB. Made back and then some with my TWTR short that I posted on GFY. Called it at the the top and rode it all the way down. Would be so much fun to short AAPL and ride it down (even though I do love the products). This might be the time. There is no better feeling than watching a tech stock implode if you are on the right side of the trade.

Hard to call a top on AAPL, they have still mayor momentum behind them. Those story stocks are better to short after one, two Q misses when "the big story" is finally broken, like was the case with TWTR or YELP.
I think next broken story is going to be TSLA, one or two Q more and they should be done...but what do I know.
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#31

12-16-2015, 08:34 AM

Add iPad "Pro" to the list. Except for maybe artists it's waste of money. Just a big Air.
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poncabare

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#32

12-16-2015, 02:31 PM

Originally posted by slapass

We might be talking about two different things here. Sure they will still make money for a while. But the premium they receive for being the "it" product is drying up. The huge growth as people discover them is gone. They have a 15 PE which means they need to grow at 15% and retain their high margins. This is what I don't think is possible. The smart phone is becoming a commodity. Ford makes tons of cash and has a 5 PE. They also are growing in emerging markets. Want to get excited over Ford stock?

Couldn't disagree more, but I can appreciate your point. It's apples and oranges if you think about it. Your talkingabout a car that you use part of your daily lives versus apple products which are all throughout your daily lives. iPhone, iPod, iPad, Mac products, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Apple Music (beats by dre) and so on and so forth. They create a lifestyle with their products that is brilliant.

We all know how hush they are about revealing new products as well. I'm sure they have a few more products up their sleeves vs a car company redoing the mustang once again. It's true innovation vs regurgitation.

Just using ford as example obviously...
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