Greece Looks Like It Will Default - What Happens Next?..

Eutopeans are to diverse to ever accept that.

It would lead to some countries voting out. Mass migrations is a major issue here.

In America this can be done as the culture's are similar. In Europe it's impossible to make a Greek, be like a German. Except in rare cases.

Lesson No. 1.

You cannot run a single currency unless you have a unified fiscal policy which governs levels of taxation and government spending.

Markets fallen today... but EURO is STRONGER that DOLLAR... WoW!!!

My country blocked all money transfers to greece

Actually, he's quite correct. Currency exchanges allow the productivity levels of a country/culture to be reflected in the value of their currency, thus when that level drops, the cheaper currency encourages exports, as well as investment, and helps to stabilize an economy. However, when a low productivity situation, like Greece's, is tied to the same high currency value as a high productivity situation, like Germany's , then there is no safety valve available through the devaluation of the currency.




.

add to that Spain and Portugal.
and for Germans ? weak euro is also blessing as they may export everything @ great prices and make good money

Greece will go for the Drachme, print a lot of new money and soon the tourist will come back cause it gets affordable again. Most tourist went to Turkey now (i think a lot of people must love those shitty all in one hotels with bad food and annoying fellow travellers).

There won't be any big problems for Europe, Greece cost more than it could give to Europe. It will be good for Europe and for Greece if they leave the EU. People allready kept their money hidden under their bed, no need for ATM machines. The rich will profit from it in Greek and buy everything they can from he poor Greeks who need money. The poor people will be poorer, the rich richer and in the end there will be new governments that promise a lot, fill their pockets and print new money.

The markets are not falling down, at least not in Holland. The stockmarket index dropped just 3%, while it rised last week with 6%. Still higher than the bottom we had 2 weeks ago, what was still 20% higher than the beginning of the year. In the end people predict this year a 25% rise of the stock market. Greece has only 2% econmoic influence in Europe.

I visited Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania in 2012 all EU countries but using their own currencies -- their consumer prices seemed lower than consumer prices in France(2014), Greece(2013) and The Netherlands(2012, 13) where I also visited. Greece was overpriced in Euros with the exception of state subsidized transport (subways and buses) when compared with wages.

My week's vacation in Paris(2014) was actually cheaper than my week's vacation in Athens(2013)

Here is a pretty good summation....


"The Greeks Have a Loan Payment Due Tomorrow They Are Not Going to Make

Last week, the Greek government walked away from the negotiating table with its creditors and enablers?the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund, called the "Troika." The group wanted Greece to commit to more spending cuts and not just more tax hikes as a condition of receiving more bailout money with which they could keep paying off their debts. The Greek prime minister, 40-year-old Alexis Tsipras, who was elected in a snap election in January promising less austerity but also that Greece would remain in the euro, said he would leave the decision to accept the bailout terms to Greek voters, scheduling a referendum for July 5. But Greece's next payment, $1.8 billion to the IMF, is due tomorrow?the country says it will not be making that payment, which have pushed global markets into a downward slide today. Greek citizens have been queuing up at ATMs for weeks, and this weekend the government finally announced banks would be closed all week. But public transportation in the city will be free.

Tsipras, as well as proponents of a "NO" vote on the bailout insist it's possible for Greece to remain in the European Union?they're betting that Greece's creditors will come back with a better deal if this one is rejected at the ballot box. Europe's political leaders have insisted that's not the case?that the deal on the table, requiring pension and labor market reforms, was the best Greece was going to get. Those reforms are likely necessary for any kind of substantive economic recovery that could bring Greece back to a level where it's a healthy member of the European Union. That's important because?

The EU is a Political and Monetary Union, Not a Fiscal One

For nearly the first decade of the 21st century, the European Union tried without success to get its member states to accept a Constitutional treaty that would further integrate the EU's political system and settle important issues like the supranational organization's official anthem and flag. The euro currency, the apex achievement of the European project, created a monetary union, eventually bringing 19 out of the 28 EU countries under a single currency and a single central bank. But each country retained its own fiscal policymaking power?crucially without the ability to print money that can help government spend a lot of money without necessarily having to raise taxes at that very moment. In Greece, where tax evasion is a social norm, this tool was particularly important. Greek tax evaders were not tax resisters seeking a more limited government?they supported, and even demanded, more government spending and a larger welfare state even while refusing to pay all their taxes. Now they want other countries in the EU to plug the hole they won't. One study suggested 31 percent of Greece's budget deficit could be covered by taxes on the estimated 28 billion euros in annual unreported income. The same kind of schizophrenic Greek attitude contributed to the current problem in the short term...

Greece Had a Prime Minister Who May Have Been Fixing Things, and Voted Him Out of Office

Last we heard from Greece was in 2011 or 2012, when they were, like now, on the brink of possibly exiting the eurozone. Greece secured a series of loans, agreed to so-called austerity measures, and crisis, for a while, had been avoided. Greece had a prime minister, Antonis Samaras, who came closer than any other in the last 40 years to achieving a balanced budget. Briefly, Greece had the fastest growing economy in Europe. The tax delinquency rate didn't go down, but Greek citizens grew tired of austerity, blaming the European Union for the consequences of their own reckless fiscal policy and politics. Tsipras won a snap election in January in part on a promise to undo the EU-imposed reforms. This would be simple enough if Greece unilaterally decided to exit the eurozone?but Tsipras also promised Greece could stay in the EU. These two promises are virtually mutually exclusive. The EU's reforms are necessary not just to get Greece out of the current crisis but to bring its economy to a caliber that fits with many of the other economies of the Eurozone. What are those reforms?

Europe's Reforms for Greece Ought to Be Pretty Uncontroversial

The Greeks say they want more money from their creditors now without having to make any changes. But they are not being honest and saying outright that they want a handout. They insist on the fiction that the loans will be repaid. Without the reforms Europe is asking for, that is impossible. Greece, for example, has 133 separate government pension funds. The troika wants Greece to simplify its pension system, to stop running deficits in its pension fund, to stop permitting early retirement, and to cut government contributions to pensions. They also want Greece to reverse a minimum wage hike the Tsipras government instituted?a higher minimum wage, of course, keeps more people out of the job market and, and this is especially relevant to Greece, provides more incentive for off-the-books work, from which the Greek government can't extract taxes creditors need it to so that their loans don't become total handouts.

Europeans May Be Losing Patience

While Greece is the economic crisis getting the most international headlines, the entire Eurozone has remained in a bleak economic condition for the last several years. It still has a double digit unemployment rate. Eurosceptic parties have seen their luck turn for the better at the ballot box. The majority of citizens in only two countries?Germany, with the richest economy, and Poland, with the most emigrants sending remittances from the rest of Europe?believe European integration has strengthened the economies of their countries. Arguments about democracy meaning the Greeks are entitled to money from Europeans elsewhere on the continent notwithstanding, European public opinion may be getting weary of the Greek crisis and the Greeks' insistence Europe needs to pay for its bloated welfare state. But Europeans interested in saving Greece can do something about it, without forcing their less interested fellow Europeans to commit their money. An Indiegogo campaign to raise 1.6 billion euros for Greece to make its next loan payment was launched earlier today. It's raised almost 9,000 euros in less than one day, far from the mark but more than most crowdsourcing campaigns raise on the first day."





.

3 billion euros as of March 2012. What do you think the deposit insurance reserves are in Greece today? Greek banks may be out of cash euros within a week or two of reopening. Why do you think there has been placed a ban on foreign payments? Greeks moving euros to other more stable eurozone banks ... The banks would not be able to honor the drafts to the payment (deposit) receiving banks.

The Greek banks are up shit's creek without a paddle

Interesting how the Germans under Merkel have come to dominate Europe using the Euro where Hilter failed to do the same with tanks.

I am shocked how the rest of Europe follows Germany's commands a mere 70 years after the end of WW2.

If Greece prospers it will be interesting to see if Italy follows them. Greece & Italy are the two largest tourist economies and have seem to taken the brunt of hurt caused by the Euro. When I was in Italy 2 years ago the Italians were still complaining about the Euro and wanted to go back to the Lire to bring the tourist money back.

Being able to retire at an age of 40? What the fuck were the idiots thinking. Only have themselves and incompetent governments to blame. Kick them out of EU if that's their desire.

67

Greece Retirement Age - Men | 2009-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar

That might be the "official" retirement age, but ->

?In the public sector, 7.91% of pensioners retire between the ages of 26 and 50, 23.64% between 51 and 55, and 43.53% between 56 and 61. In IKA, 4.44% of pensioners retire between the ages of 26 and 50, 12.83% retire between 51 and 55, and 58.61% retire between 56 and 61. Meanwhile, in the so-called healthy funds, 91.6% of people retire before the national retirement age limit,? Vroutsis said.

75% of Greek Pensioners Enjoy Early Retirement | GreekReporter.com

I wonder what Bert and Ernie would have had to say about this..... I bet they would have handled things better too. I think its time Greece defaulted.... they can start from fresh. Better they collapse while everything else seems to be chugging along, rather than they collapse while everything else is collapsing.

As well as..... Greece will be a great place to holiday for a while (at least it will be before/after the riots).

OK

Well, those lazy Greeks!

And with so many ''retired'' early the unemployment rate is so high ...

Either there is no real work in Greece or many Greeks are working ''under the table.''

We have lots of ''retired'' people 18 to 62-years-old in America too -- their pension is called ''welfare'' and they work under the table. Rush hour is a bitch in Athens -- it's avenues full and stop and go -- they were doing something ...

What I did not see in the Athens area was a lot of industrial activity. There is not much of an industrial infrastructure in Greece. Greece is not heavily industrialized like Germany or France. Greece is not a money or trade center like The Netherlands. Greece probably doesn't belong in the Eurozone -- not on its current terms. The Eurozone is better off without having to support the weight of Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal, but only because they are unwilling to. The Greeks may not accept their ''terms.'' The Eurozone member-states of the EU are sovereign nations with national interests and issues.

June 28th may have been the beginning of the end of the euro but not the political and trade alliances of the EU.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Articles_of_Confederation
An EU like Federation was unworkable in the post revolution US

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federation#European_Union
EU type federation of nations

US Americans cannot understand the national and ethnic differences in Europe. It is not like the racial conflicts in the US. Europeans have been fighting wars between each other for a thousand or more years over nationalism and religion. Wars of Nationalism, Capitalism, Socialism and Communism for the last 100 years -- fighting wars and wars of words.

Greece is a great whipping boy
Really, to a degree the Greeks set themselves up for this.

can we please leave out the politics from 70 years ago?

please see my post from page one of this thread and how greek people agree

many other EU countries got their shit together, the greek not (yet)

seriously, now you only need to post some nazi pictures and we're at the same level as the dumbshits on the street that completely ignore reality and just like to scream and throw stones

Actually, the lesson is... Look what happens when no one pays their taxes...

reasonable theory, but ->

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...centage_of_GDP

Greece 30.0%, which is on par with most other countries... so Robbie is right, over-spending is the problem...

no one pays their fucking taxes in Greece - did you not get the memo?

How do you explain the fact that 30% of GDP is magically collected?

crockett, I think that you aren't willing to accept that socialism in it's extreme forms never works...unless there are some outside factors keeping it afloat.

When so many people in Greece are on the public dole and retiring at early ages (thanks to the govt.), you are going to shrink your tax base.

That's how real life works.

You give people motivation to work and they will. You take that away from them and give them motivation to NOT work...then that's what they will do.

Same thing is slowly happening to our country. And examples like Greece are what you end up with at the end of that tunnel.

i explain it by the fact that no official numbers by the greek government turned out to be true

This page spells out better what the problem is:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Govern...centage_of_GDP


Country Tax burden % GDP Govt. expend. % GDP
Greece 31.2 51.9

They collect 31.2% of GDP, but spend 51.9% (which turns out to be one of the highest in the world)...

and this has nothing to do with socialism, it has something to do with a corrupted society and it happened no matter whether there was a socialist or conservative government for the last decades

it has been a longstanding tradition to award votes with government jobs in return, sometimes up to the point where those people didn't even show up for any work and only collected their monthly income. and then retired on government dime at 55.

look at greek bureaucracy when it comes to creating jobs - once again, no matter which government was in place in the past.


... actually - i can't and i won't write down all the absurdities of that country while being called Nazi while my country covered that shit all these years

I just feel for my greek friends and their families - while about 2000 greek people own 80% of the total wealth of that country and most of them are not even obliged to pay taxes according to their constitution

So you think that a socialist society would function better than a capitalistic one?

I don't think that socialism is a good way for society to function at all.

Again: it's human nature. If you reward people to NOT work...they won't work.

Unemployment rates in Holland are almost equal to the USA.
Except everybody has health insurance, wellfare if needed,
and we still can buy off all Greece debts if needed.

Not sure what you're getting at.

Does that mean that you think that socialism is a better way for society and that it can be successful and somehow people (not just a few at the top) can "get ahead" in life and work their way up to fulfill their ambitions?

Well, you said " it's human nature. If you reward people to NOT work...they won't work.".
That would imply that there are more people unemployed in a more socialist country.
But if you look at the numbers with some more soacialist countries, that is not the case.

Between a more socialist country and 100% socialism is a huge difference.
I think there isn't a 100% socialist country, most of the time the politics are between right and left.

Yes, i think in a more socialist land people 'get ahead' in life and become what they want. Maybe even more cause everybody is able to go to university and has good Healthcare, better life environment. Europe isn't Korea. You think everybody in the USA is able to visit the best school, get Always good healthcare and Always a minimun you can life from to offer your children also a better future?

Fair enough.

Not the way I see things. But if everyone thought the same it would be a boring world.

I prefer "dog-eat-dog" capitalism. I like to compete and enjoy being forced to raise my game.

Few EU countries would of joined the Euro with those rules. Especially Greece, probably Italy, Spain and Portugal. The EU is the bureaucrats and politicians wet dream. The had a good trade agreement with the Common Market. Since then have taken every step they can to make Europe one Federal State. With populations who see themselves as people of their country first and Europeans a poor second.

Works like that in America with so many Americans caught up in the consumer race, going for the American Dream. Greeks and most of Southern Europe's people are very different. They will only work hard enough to get the essentials. Preferring a quieter life than working "50" hours a week and striving for the next gadget or a bigger car.

There's the problem the EU has to face head on. The Greeks, Spanish, Italians, should never of been given a blank check book.

Pure Socialism doesn't work, because it removes the reward factor for the best. Demoting or losing them.

Having a safety net for those in real need, like Pensions, Healthcare, Unemployment Benefits, Disability Pensions, is just looking after fellow citizens. Those who are fit enough to work, shouldn't be made to work looking after the society that looks after them. In return for their benefits.

As the world becomes more technical, it will need less people in low to medium paid jobs. This is going to present a real problem. With the increasing gap between those who can get a decent job and those who can't.

Greeks headed towards BitCoin as an alternative currency ??

Greeks are rushing to Bitcoin - Jun. 29, 2015

Unfortunately not that many of them I bought some at $250 and it raised only to $260

Right. I envy EU countries with their own currency, such as Hungary or the Czech Republic.

but hey!, we need go back to school.

Socialsts make me fucking sick!

It is all a free ride for you idiots. Then you end up with situations like Greece and pull the entire society down with you.

No true busisness person can be a socialist (unless they are in bed with the government)

Three Cheers!!!

SPX making a LH and LL, following the lead of the majority of our sectors. Only 2/9 of them uptrending.

thinkorswim Sharing

If we can't rally above the prior high, I foresee us making a lower low around the 2030.25 price level. Hopefully we don't fall back below 2000. IMO Greece is just a distraction for what the market has been waiting to do since stopping QE last year.

I know this is a bit callous taking advantage of a country sinking under waves of debt...

But is anybody else eyeing Greece as a discount porn-filming location? I've met some smoking hot Greek chicks and well...one has to pay the bills.

I sincerely hope it won't come to a Greek exit. On the brigher side, a strong euro would be good for me because my earnings are in dollars ;-)

welcome to greece.....be sure you have bills of 5 $

Don't visit Sweden then. It's the most socialistic country on the Earth.

greek porn actress sofia xiouma

19 yo,new generation is the most sluttish one!

Not much movement today. Sitting on top of the 2067.75 price level is positive if we remain there on Monday, although we didn't make it above the blue trend line. Looking for a move to the upside of 2099, or the downside of 2030.25. thinkorswim Sharing

they can't, they smashed the drachma printing presses

And the Greeks vote no. They are gonna need to build new presses. Maybe the EU will help with that.