How long will the EU last?

[Paul Markham]

As we know it today.

My bet is no longer than 5 years. Simply because the countries making a real profit from the EU can't afford to pay for it. This is assuming the voters will vote to keep paying for the bankrupt nations.

Spain has now asked for a loan. No surprise there, everyone knew they would and the only question was when they would ask. It's not a bailout as Spain which has a lame economy, debts already it can't pay is insisting this loan, which is going to keep their bankrupt banks afloat is being used to repay the loans they already had.

There is no austerity package, no plan to generate growth in Spain or any sort of plan to get Spain able to survive in the Euro.

Similar situation to Greece. Yes they have the plans which won't work, so they will need more money soon.

Eire is struggling hard to get it's economy back on a level keel. After a false boom fed by borrowed money. Portugal is next to go down or will it be Italy? No problem the politicians who dumped us in this shit hole are flying around Europe on full expenses talking to each other and promising to meet again. Can't figure out why, because nothing solid ever emerges from these meetings. Except to have more meetings in a different place. And spend more money.

With hindsight the reasons for this fuck up are clear. The original idea of a trading zone was good. Once the EU started to expand to small less profitable countries, went to a single Parliament and currency it started to go wrong. The boom Germany and others had was based on trade within the EU supported by borrowed money. The money that was being borrowed was being spent on German, French, British, etc goods. Eire, Spain, Italy, Greece, etc were producing what? Besides debts.

The large expansion into Eastern Europe was good for the countries where production was cheaper the Britain, Germany, France, etc. The jobs created here were not new jobs in the EU. Simply jobs moved. Jobs here in construction were to build new office blocks, to house jobs that were in more expensive places. Plus funded by huge EU grants, which aren't coming like they used to.

So when anyone says the EU brought a lot of wealth, ask them how. Because it was built on debt and selling to each other. And now the debt mountain is as big as the wheat mountain or deep as the milk or wine lake.

It won't effect me too much, Eva and especially our daughter it will effect.

[baddog]

While I could dig the no borders deal; I always thought the one currency idea was a joke. I could not believe Germany agreed to use the Euro.

[BIGTYMER]

It'll be a slow painful death.

[DamianJ]

I remember when I used to get paid 3k to post nonsense about Europe.

[just a punk]

Who cares.

[xinyonghu]

the fucking China will save you

[Paul Markham]

Originally Posted by baddog

While I could dig the no borders deal; I always thought the one currency idea was a joke. I could not believe Germany agreed to use the Euro.

The politicians and civil servants loved the whole idea. you only had to listen to them to hear the dream they were selling to voters. The single currency was just the next step towards their dream of a single United States of Europe run by politicians and un elected civil servants. The flaw in the plans is so obvious it's funny. Italians don't want to be Dutch and visa versa. All the citizens in Europe see their country and sometimes their region as being different.

The Scottish want to break away, same goes for Wales, Slovakia, the Irish fought a war to break from Britain, so are the Basque and I'm sure there's other places where people want to be self governing.

Yet Strasbourg churns out laws every day to suit the whole of Europe.

Now the Spanish, Greek and other voters are rioting. Because the politicians can't get the money they used to get to bribe them into voting for them.

So the next time a politician promises you a health service, tax cuts or anything. Ask him how will it be paid. Because odds are it's just a bribe to get your vote for him to keep or get a job.

[Emil]

I talked to EU today and she said she will only last 2 more years.

[EddyTheDog]

I thought Portugal already crapped out - I think they had their bailout last year.

Will it be around in its current form? - No way, but it will be around - Nobody can afford for it to go down the shitter.

The south/east euro countries would be so fucked that the economic migrants heading north would destroy the host countries as well.

When the EU formed the wealthier countries basically said we will keep the poorer countries heads above water until they are self sufficient. Then they can look after us. We can not back out of that deal now.

[DTK]

I'm not sure whether you are talking about the European Union itself dissolving or just the common currency (the Euro). Regardless, i think it's a 'too big to fail' situation. So there will be bailouts, negotiations, meetings, more meetings, more bailouts, maybe a 'summit' conference or three etc.

If or when the EU/Euro goes, it'll be like bigtymer said: a long painful death.

[DTK]

Originally Posted by xinyonghu

the fucking China will save you

you ain't fucking kidding comrade.

[bbobby86]

it is difficult situation...

[halfpint]

The sooner the better then we can stop wasting money on these eu countries who think we can just keep pouring money into them while getting fuck all back

[Paul Markham]

Originally Posted by CyberSEO

Who cares.

You will when less people are spending money on porn. That's what happens when there are huge cuts in pay. The effect spreads.

[halfpint]

Originally Posted by Paul Markham

You will when less people are spending money on porn. That's what happens when there are huge cuts in pay. The effect spreads.

The pay cuts are allready happening over here in the UK and we are having demonstrations by public sector workers. Even the Police went on on a march. I work in the private sector and talk to a lot of people and a lot of companys are having real cash flow problems which causes wages to be paid late and bills not being paid on time which then causes the workers more bills for late payments. Its a spiraling bubble which is going to burst sooner or later.

We are seeing a huge downgrade and loss in memberships in the company who i work for, We send out letters asking why they have left or downgraded and 99% of the replies is loss of work or pay cuts.

[romancexcore]

The US is in far worse shape than the EU as said. And basically paying same taxes in the end as any EU country and getting nothing from the government in return. It may be all about confidence but the confidence that the US is doing things right nearly brought Britain down thanks to Tony Blair and David Cameron going along with our bad policies. The only thing that will stabilize the EU imho is if the UK finally decides to jump in, maybe since they have money. But it's only Germany that seem to be capable of balancing a checkbook.

[Black All Through]

Originally Posted by romancexcore

The US is in far worse shape than the EU as said. And basically paying same taxes in the end as any EU country and getting nothing from the government in return. It may be all about confidence but the confidence that the US is doing things right nearly brought Britain down thanks to Tony Blair and David Cameron going along with our bad policies. The only thing that will stabilize the EU imho is if the UK finally decides to jump in, maybe since they have money. But it's only Germany that seem to be capable of balancing a checkbook.

What people don't understand is that the EU is not holding back on its current situation, while the US is like China and will tell you what they want you to. Just like when Bush left the white house and all the shit came to float.

You are right when you say that everyone pays taxes, but in the US you pay to simply breath the fucking air, because you get fuck all back! At least in Europe when you're sick you don't have to worry how the fuck you're going to pay your hospital bills, because there is no bill, and don't anyone start saying thet US hospitals are the best, been there and done that and I prefer without doubt the British health system. Just to tell you one, a friend of mine in Ohio, his house caught on fire and the county fire department sent him a bill of $2,300. Where in the fucking world besides the united fucking states of fucking america do you pay the fire department to put the flames out in your home??

You're all slaves of corporate america that own your life and you look over at the EU like its a system that isn't working.

[romancexcore]

Originally Posted by Black All Through

What people don't understand is that the EU is not holding back on its current situation, while the US is like China and will tell you what they want you to. Just like when Bush left the white house and all the shit came to float.

You are right when you say that everyone pays taxes, but in the US you pay to simply breath the fucking air, because you get fuck all back! At least in Europe when you're sick you don't have to worry how the fuck you're going to pay your hospital bills, because there is no bill, and don't anyone start saying thet US hospitals are the best, been there and done that and I prefer without doubt the British health system. Just to tell you one, a friend of mine in Ohio, his house caught on fire and the county fire department sent him a bill of $2,300. Where in the fucking world besides the united fucking states of fucking america do you pay the fire department to put the flames out in your home??

You're all slaves of corporate america that own your life and you look over at the EU like its a system that isn't working.

Maybe you misread my comment, I agree with you 100%. I'm only lucky that despite being stuck in the US I live in a state which basically has socialized medicine so my healthcare is taken care of. It's not even a rich state yet they can manage it. And whenever I go for a checkup I get seen by three doctors. The US is a joke and not even a very funny one.

[madko]

History says : "empires come and go". Eu is an economical empire .. build on economics .. it will FALL ..as will USA .. it's just a mater of time. On the short term .. i don't think UE will fall soon ... not in a 50 years range. Why? countries like Germany, France, UK ...ALONE ..won't mater in the future economics .. they only have a chance together.. and with a big market around them (small ue countries).. THEY KNOW IT . and will act accordingly. Euro or without euro .. they will stick together.

[Black All Through]

Originally Posted by romancexcore

Maybe you misread my comment, I agree with you 100%. I'm only lucky that despite being stuck in the US I live in a state which basically has socialized medicine so my healthcare is taken care of. It's not even a rich state yet they can manage it. And whenever I go for a checkup I get seen by three doctors. The US is a joke and not even a very funny one.

I quoted what you said, because I agree with you

[v4 media]

Originally Posted by baddog

While I could dig the no borders deal; I always thought the one currency idea was a joke. I could not believe Germany agreed to use the Euro.

Of course they'd agree to the Euro they're an exporting nation, their goods were expensive because of the mark.

Manufacturing in most other eurozone countries has become much more expensive whilst in Germany it's cheaper.

[Black All Through]

Originally Posted by v4 media

Of course they'd agree to the Euro they're an exporting nation, their goods were expensive because of the mark.

Manufacturing in most other eurozone countries has become much more expensive whilst in Germany it's cheaper.

[xinyonghu]

Originally Posted by DTK

you ain't fucking kidding comrade.

not funny ,China will save all of you by starve to death or killing his people

[haig]

germany is still very strong probably new eu will be new german commonwealth or 4th reich and lame ducks like greece will be dismissed.

us is not in good shape they are just buying time before big collapse

[haig]

us health insurance is total bullshit they are selling bullshit and conshit or pay 1000 a month even then you are not safe

[pornmasta]

Originally Posted by haig

germany is still very strong probably new eu will be new german commonwealth or 4th reich and lame ducks like greece will be dismissed.

beware of lame ducks

remember the 30's

[pimpmaster9000]

hyperinflation happened in my country...prices changed 2x/day...paper money became worthless...

they changed to a new currency in 2-3 days...they took away all the zeroes LOL...

[pornmasta]

Originally Posted by crucifissio

hyperinflation happened in my country...prices changed 2x/day...paper money became worthless...

they changed to a new currency in 2-3 days...they took away all the zeroes LOL...

[Barry-xlovecam]

If the sky falls we will all go down together probably.

Looks like there will be some reconstruction of the house of cards in Europe.

But to play the devils advocate; if the western economies collapsed who would buy the rest of the world export products?

[HomerSimpson]

the main problem is US and UK media spreading the fear of EU collapse...
other than that EU have issues that needs to be solved and that should be done ASAP...
EU and UK want the EU down so they could put their crappy values back on the top...

[baddog]

Originally Posted by Paul Markham

.

So the next time a politician promises you a health service, tax cuts or anything. Ask him how will it be paid. Because odds are it's just a bribe to get your vote for him to keep or get a job.

No shit?

[GregE]

Originally Posted by haig

germany is still very strong probably new eu will be new german commonwealth or 4th reich and lame ducks like greece will be dismissed.

us is not in good shape they are just buying time before big collapse

Modern Germany is as different from the Reich as hot is from cold.

I do see the EU shrinking to include only Europe's most prosperous countries however.

A good yardstick to see who they'll be long term is pre WWII europe. The Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania and Finland were all reasonably prosperous in the East.

In the West you have your usual suspects plus Italy (maybe).

As for the USA, we'll muddle along somehow but things are apt to get a tad ugly.

[mavruda]

Originally Posted by xinyonghu

the fucking China will save you

That is the sad true. I've heard on news a time ago, that there are chinese investors, who are negotiating with EU leaders of opening the doors for business. Cutting aside the crap you posted below about starving - you are right - Investment streams from Asia would be welcome to the EU at this current moment and probably will open many work spots for unemployed specialists.

It's a matter of time and way of negotiations to make eventual agreement.

[SnakeX]

Originally Posted by CyberSEO

Who cares.

wtf man?

you dont respect the money some EU webmasters give to you?

You sell a product...you should be more careful with your opinion

[DTK]

Originally Posted by Jesus H Christ

... I personally believe this is when you'll start to see state succession.

If you're talking about secession, it's infinitely easier said than done.

"...it is settled law that the Constitution does not permit unilateral secession: A state or group of states cannot simply leave the Union over the objections of the national government. However, the arguments that led to this settled understanding are hardly unassailable, and the Constitution is probably best read as permitting the mutually agreed upon departure of one or more states...."

http://writ.news.findlaw.com/dorf/20041124.html

[theking]

Originally Posted by Jesus H Christ

Finally, if you're not buying at least $200 a month in tangibles like food, water, medicine, vehicle, etc. Or upgrading your personal protection, you live in denial and probably part of the entitlement problem.

I have a place in the wilderness that I discovered about seven years ago...that has year around spring water...a creek within walking distance with trout in it. arable land. abundant wild life, including Deer...Elk...and to the best of my knowledge has not been found by any human other than myself for the past seven years. I have built a well camouflaged lean to...and have stocked it with virtually everything I could think of...and there is also a cave nearby that is extremely well hidden that I have well stocked...as a secondary shelter. I update what needs to be updated every year. My dog and I can survive quite well for an indefinite period of time every event other than radiation or something biological...or possibly a major natural event.

[Overload]

Originally Posted by Paul Markham

As we know it today.

My bet is no longer than 5 years. Simply because the countries making a real profit from the EU can't afford to pay for it. This is assuming the voters will vote to keep paying for the bankrupt nations.

Spain has now asked for a loan. No surprise there, everyone knew they would and the only question was when they would ask. It's not a bailout as Spain which has a lame economy, debts already it can't pay is insisting this loan, which is going to keep their bankrupt banks afloat is being used to repay the loans they already had.

There is no austerity package, no plan to generate growth in Spain or any sort of plan to get Spain able to survive in the Euro.

Similar situation to Greece. Yes they have the plans which won't work, so they will need more money soon.

Eire is struggling hard to get it's economy back on a level keel. After a false boom fed by borrowed money. Portugal is next to go down or will it be Italy? No problem the politicians who dumped us in this shit hole are flying around Europe on full expenses talking to each other and promising to meet again. Can't figure out why, because nothing solid ever emerges from these meetings. Except to have more meetings in a different place. And spend more money.

With hindsight the reasons for this fuck up are clear. The original idea of a trading zone was good. Once the EU started to expand to small less profitable countries, went to a single Parliament and currency it started to go wrong. The boom Germany and others had was based on trade within the EU supported by borrowed money. The money that was being borrowed was being spent on German, French, British, etc goods. Eire, Spain, Italy, Greece, etc were producing what? Besides debts.

The large expansion into Eastern Europe was good for the countries where production was cheaper the Britain, Germany, France, etc. The jobs created here were not new jobs in the EU. Simply jobs moved. Jobs here in construction were to build new office blocks, to house jobs that were in more expensive places. Plus funded by huge EU grants, which aren't coming like they used to.

So when anyone says the EU brought a lot of wealth, ask them how. Because it was built on debt and selling to each other. And now the debt mountain is as big as the wheat mountain or deep as the milk or wine lake.

It won't effect me too much, Eva and especially our daughter it will effect.

after all that blablabla its just like the USA ... and that bullshit of united crap is still there, nagging and bragging ... not? my bet = EU = at least 5 years longer than you live

[JFK]

Originally Posted by DTK

I'm not sure whether you are talking about the European Union itself dissolving or just the common currency (the Euro). Regardless, i think it's a 'too big to fail' situation. So there will be bailouts, negotiations, meetings, more meetings, more bailouts, maybe a 'summit' conference or three etc.

If or when the EU/Euro goes, it'll be like bigtymer said: a long painful death.

it will be dragged ad infinitum, if the politicians have their way.

It should of been ended the last bailout. It will just go till the indebted countries owe so much, that there is absolutely no way in hell to repay,then there will be a war.

They wont stand their countries being repoed, gobbled up by the people who lent them the money in the 1st place to keep on their losing ways

[DTK]

Originally Posted by JFK

it will be dragged ad infinitum, if the politicians have their way.

It should of been ended the last bailout. It will just go till the indebted countries owe so much, that there is absolutely no way in hell to repay,then there will be a war.

They wont stand their countries being repoed, gobbled up by the people who lent them the money in the 1st place to keep on their losing ways

hard to agree with the war part. what, like greece is going to stand up to germany and france militarily? not trying to be a smartass (much), but i don't understand where you're coming from with the war part.

[GregE]

Originally Posted by JFK

it will be dragged ad infinitum, if the politicians have their way.

It should of been ended the last bailout. It will just go till the indebted countries owe so much, that there is absolutely no way in hell to repay,then there will be a war.

They wont stand their countries being repoed, gobbled up by the people who lent them the money in the 1st place to keep on their losing ways

Nobody is going to invade anybody

The countries that welch on their loans will have their credit ratings cut effectively to zero and get kicked out of the EU. That is if they haven't already left on their own.

At worst, sanctions might be applied on them as well, but I rather doubt it. You can't squeeze blood out of a rock after all.

[Paul Markham]

Originally Posted by halfpint

The pay cuts are allready happening over here in the UK and we are having demonstrations by public sector workers. Even the Police went on on a march. I work in the private sector and talk to a lot of people and a lot of companys are having real cash flow problems which causes wages to be paid late and bills not being paid on time which then causes the workers more bills for late payments. Its a spiraling bubble which is going to burst sooner or later.

We are seeing a huge downgrade and loss in memberships in the company who i work for, We send out letters asking why they have left or downgraded and 99% of the replies is loss of work or pay cuts.

The Public Sector was supported by loans. That money flowed into the private sector via public sector spending their wages and the money spent in the public sector from building an Olympic Stadium to buying a worker a hard hat. Cut taxes or/and borrowing, the tap is turned off and we all suffer.

The myth that cutting taxes generates growth is put out by the rich to keep their money. They won't build an Olympic Stadium or motorway and employ 1,000s to do it. They will buy more shares, a yacht, an expensive imported car. Those who get an extra $10 a week won't do anything but buy something made in China.

The myth that people work harder when paid more is also stupid. Who here is working harder now than they did in 2002 when it was easier? If you can earn a great income in 10 hours a week, few will work 60. Few would spend less time with their family, leisure and pleasure, because they're earning more.

But "I will cut taxes, so you can spend your money and it will generate growth." Get's people elected. Proof of this is happening in the UK today.

One job lost in the Public Sector, is one less person spending his wages in the local area.

We can't over inflate the public sector like some countries have done, but once inflated. Deflating it a dangerous route.

[Alex69]

sadly in this world if one crashes so do all others... too interrelated

[Paul Markham]

Originally Posted by romancexcore

The US is in far worse shape than the EU as said. And basically paying same taxes in the end as any EU country and getting nothing from the government in return. It may be all about confidence but the confidence that the US is doing things right nearly brought Britain down thanks to Tony Blair and David Cameron going along with our bad policies. The only thing that will stabilize the EU imho is if the UK finally decides to jump in, maybe since they have money. But it's only Germany that seem to be capable of balancing a checkbook.

The whole situation is dire. Basically because the rich nations of the world have lived beyond the income for a long time. This is a simplified version of why it happened.

If a person spends $50,000 on local good it employs someone locally. If they spend $50,000 on imported third world goods it employs third world people. Yes you get 3 times more for your money. But someone looses a job.

So the alternative is for the rich advanced nations of the world to produce the super hi tech and advanced goods, the third world can't. A balance of trade is achieved and those producing the advanced goods pay taxes to support the people who can't get a job locally.

Works great, UNTIL. The third world starts to produce the advanced goods, the richer are bribed into not paying taxes, to support the local lass well off and borrow to fill the gap, and the rich buy imported third world goods because it's more value. AND invest in people investing in the loans given to the poorer people.

Suddenly the gravy train hits the wall. The advanced nations aren't selling enough to the third world, they have local people struggling to pay their debts, to banks they had money invested in. Yes that includes most of us, if we have any money in a bank or the financial system.

As Alex says, it's all a Global Network. You buy a MacDonalds Hamburger instead of a Texas Steak. You just helped employ a farmer in Brazil and a Texan farmer took a pay cut. Simplified, but true.

Solution is we all live a less affluent life style or ask the third world to go back to being the third world.

[DWB]

George Soros recently said they have about 3 months to fix the Euro. He may be saying that for his own personal gains, or not.

What you can count on is not getting any further warning. This is the warning. It's all going to be there on a Monday, then on Tuesday there will be bank runs and the shit is going to hit the fan.

[MaDalton]

everytime i read these threads i get the feeling the world is ending soon, especially with our doomsday expert Jesus H Christ...

sure, i might be fucked if it turns out it's not just a nickname on a message board, but until then i believe what i see when i go out outside and at least over here the world looks like a pretty happy place.

so i probably should just stop reading these threads.

and Paul, not sure if you mean the EU or the EURO but at least the EU will last longer than you (or me). despite of all the british sabotage attempts ;)

[grumpy]

It was a bad idea from the beginning.

[just a punk]

Originally Posted by SnakeX

wtf man?

you dont respect the money some EU webmasters give to you?

You sell a product...you should be more careful with your opinion

You don't understand one thing. I'm not getting paid for my scripts by some abstract EU. My clients are real persons from various countries. If the EU will collapse (personally I think it's just about time), my clients won't die or so.

Look. I was born in another union (USSR) which has collapsed as well. So what? Do I feel bad about it? Do I earn less money than if I'd still live in the USSR? No, I don't think so. Furthermore, even now my country has some forcefully attached republics, and 90% of people here would be happy to get rid of them (give them a real independence).

So I just don't believe that any artificial union like the USSR or the EU is doomed to disappear some day. I'm against all those visa's that hinder the people from traveling the World, but I also against any non-organic unions. There are many different nations with their own culture, economy and mentality. Putting them all into the same copper is a very dumb idea.

[Paul Markham]

Originally Posted by Black All Through

What people don't understand is that the EU is not holding back on its current situation, while the US is like China and will tell you what they want you to. Just like when Bush left the white house and all the shit came to float.

You are right when you say that everyone pays taxes, but in the US you pay to simply breath the fucking air, because you get fuck all back! At least in Europe when you're sick you don't have to worry how the fuck you're going to pay your hospital bills, because there is no bill, and don't anyone start saying thet US hospitals are the best, been there and done that and I prefer without doubt the British health system. Just to tell you one, a friend of mine in Ohio, his house caught on fire and the county fire department sent him a bill of $2,300. Where in the fucking world besides the united fucking states of fucking america do you pay the fire department to put the flames out in your home??

You're all slaves of corporate america that own your life and you look over at the EU like its a system that isn't working.

Americans have had this low tax myth pummeled into them for a very long time. Maybe they would like lower taxes, we all would. But at what costs?

Metering road use, so the moment they drive off in their car an automatic meter deducts money from their bank accounts to pay for the roads and upkeep. Police, Fire Dept., Paramedics, Disaster reliefs, etc. All run on the same system. Maybe make all the above run by private companies as well. Owned by billionaires.

Flying from an airport will carry a $100 to $1,000 airport charge to pay for the building, upkeep, flight safety, security, traffic control, etc to cover the costs.

And everything else all in the hands of people like BP. And when they fuck up, a private company will be in charge of investigating into why. Or more likely covering it up.

Police and crime detection will be a great way to save costs. If you need them, they will give you a quote over the phone before they turn up.

Army, defense, courts all run the same way. And The White House will be renamed as The House of Microsoft.

The poor will get SWEET FA. And if you live, work and play in a walled enclosure, guarded 24//365 pay highly trained guards. You will be fine. As the prisons will close because no one will pay for them.

</sarcasm>

This is the problem politicians have. There are 1,000s of things that have to be paid for. Running a country isn't cheap. You can't run it with guys one $50k a year. Or by outsourcing work to the third world. So they need to have taxes to pay for the costs. The problems are that the politicians won't get elected if they tell people that. Or raise taxes. So instead of running withing the taxes received they borrow money and now the US has a huge mountain of debt. And look like it's doing not so bad.

Well that's the US problem explained. Solution? Not a fucking clue.

[Paul Markham]

Originally Posted by v4 media

Of course they'd agree to the Euro they're an exporting nation, their goods were expensive because of the mark.

Manufacturing in most other eurozone countries has become much more expensive whilst in Germany it's cheaper.

Countries like Germany have benefited well from the EU and the Euro. they now have to pay the bill.

[JFK]

Originally Posted by DTK

hard to agree with the war part. what, like greece is going to stand up to germany and france militarily? not trying to be a smartass (much), but i don't understand where you're coming from with the war part.

Ok ok .... armed uprising , chaos in the streets etc etc give it time, till all the peaceful protests turn violent.