Please tell us again how she is perfectly sane :1orglaugh

I like the site and concept and think it would sell quite well from what i see

Many thanks and believe me I take all input and shared thoughts seriously.

I have to answer to affiliates, and my partners, and if we can not identify the source of the form submission disconnect then all we can do is come here and share and see if others have similiar disconnects

When I come in and put my reputation and sincerity on the line it is for my team...as far as I can tell their efforts have been commendable and even the ones counting our form clicks have said they can see something is a miss.

7 years in a row of double digit form submission percentages for april and now april 2012 is sitting at 8%

There should be 1 person at least somewhere who also had a record month of march for 2012 then followed by a record low for april 2012

Show me that person and I disappear quietly into the night...until I see that account or person I have no choice but to ask questions on how to improve my form submissions.

Time outs, slow page loads, glitches,bugs, are some of the things that can cause join form submission percentages to vary from site to site

The fact that I have such high form hits even after the price is shown tells me all I need to know about the general interest of my site, and satisfaction of our tour.

Thanks Sleazy very kind of you to make a comment like that in this climate:) Much appreciated:)

Hey Thanks for the graph LiveXXX that is very helpful and give us another perspective to consider:)
many thanks:)

I guess this means no pics

What are you doing again?

SwirlsGirl, I did some number crunching for you and with the limited data I see it does seem as if April 2012 is a bit abnormal and cause for some concern based on the form submissions (but approval % seems fine and please keep reading!).

What I suggest is to take the last 3-5 years of monthly data and do something like I did below except use all the data you have. Enter it on a site like this http://easycalculation.com/statistic...-deviation.php. That will give you the mean (simple average) as well as the Standard Deviation among other things. With the standard deviation you then add and subtract it from the mean (see example below). That will show you the limits for data to be within one Standard Deviation. Typically in about 70% of cases on average in a normal distribution data should be within one deviation. To see what is REALLY abnormal (usually less than a 5% chance of it happening) go out two deviations.

Your April 2012 form submission % is outside of one Standard Deviation so it is a little abnormal. But it's also only a low sample size I have and April isn't finished yet.

Keep in mind that it would be better if somehow you could eliminate traffic from tier 3 (and maybe tier 2) traffic from all these stats as well as other bad traffic like the google bot. Ideally these stats would track uniques and not raws too. If a spider or a bunch or surfers from a Korean forum hit your join page 1000 times in the month then that can mess up your stats unless you eliminate it to prevent that.

Here's some calculations I did using only the last five years values for April that you gave :

Mean is simple average. Very easily skewed. Don't rely much on it.

Standard deviation is a measure of how much the data varies. It's still subject to skew but much less so than the Mean. The more data points you have the more reliable it tends to become.

"Normal" is just what I call the range of one Standard Deviation from the Mean. To get it take the Standard Deviation and add it to the mean. That's your top range. Now take the Standard Deviation again and subtract it from the original Mean. That is your bottom range. On average about 70% of all data should be between this normal range. But that can vary depending on the data and the sample size. It suggests something is off when outside this range but it's still probable that it can happen. Bad luck.

"Somewhat normal" I didn't do but it's just like what I call "Normal" but with a range of two Standard Deviations from the mean. Typically 95% of data points would be within this range. Being outside it suggests something is wrong but it doesn't mean impossible. I would be looking to see what is wrong pretty hard if I saw a month outside this.

Form Hits

2008 - 184
2009 - 899
2010 - 462
2011 - 275
2012 - 589

Avg Form hits: 482
Standard Deviation: 282

"Normal" (approx. 70% of time on average with large sample size and normal distribution) : 200 - 764



Form Submissions

2008 - 71
2009 - 240
2010 - 89
2011 - 101
2012 - 50

Avg Submissions: 110
Standard Deviation: 75

"Normal" : 35 - 185

Approvals

2008 - 55
2009 - 178
2010 - 80
2011 - 53
2012 - 37

Avg Approvals: 81
Standard Deviation: 57

"Normal" : 24 - 138



Form Submission %

2008 - 39%
2009 - 27%
2010 - 20%
2011 - 36.73%
2012 - 8.49%

Avg Form submission %: 26.24%
Standard Deviation: 13%

"Normal" : 13.24% - 39.24%


Approval %

2008 - 77%
2009 - 74%
2010 - 89%
2011 - 52%
2012 - 74%

Avg Approval %: 73.2%
Standard Deviation: 13%

"Normal" : 60.2% - 86.2%

This is of limited use because it's only five data points and because of what I said. So the Standard Deviation is going to be huge and almost useless. It would be better like I said if you did every month for the last three or five years. ;)

You might have someone make a Excel spreadsheet for you so you can plot this stuff and have a nice graph showing all the data and see where the "Normal" ranges are and maybe get stuff like the margin of error. I bet something like this already exists somewhere. I hope this is helpful. Good luck! :)

WOW!!! Hey Signupdamnit....firstly I know that took some precious time to layout and I understand how precious time is...so please accept my sincere and profound thanks to you for that lengthy and detailed response!

I found it to be very insightful and intriguing as what you laid out about standard deviations and how to interpret statistical data.

I really appreciate the fact that you went out of your way to help me understand some things with more clarity as opposed to insulting or flaming me for these types of questions.

I think I will go back and input much more of the data into that website and see what more number crunching can be done to give us more accurate data to analyze.

We can not thank you enough for that contribution and I will keep you updated on our findings.

I feel somewhat relieved that some one of your credibility has gone public and agreed that there does *appear* to be an *issues* with april form submissions based upon the small sample of data provided.

You're welcome I know how it feels to have to worry about all this stuff so I wanted to try to help. The 8% form submit you are seeing is outside one Standard Deviation so it appears a bit abnormal. When you figure in all those other points check to see if it is still outside of one SD or maybe even outside two Standard Deviations which I suspect it will be. It doesn't necessarily mean something has to be wrong but it suggests so. It could be CCBill, a slow loading form, hosting problems, error on the site, influx of abnormally horrible traffic, many things but it suggests something is up somewhere.

Here is a visualization of Standard Deviation which might help. It's not using your exact data but is just from Wikipedia.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...iagram.svg.png

The dark blue areas (labeled 34.1%) are what I call "normal". That is one Standard Deviation from the mean which is the center. 70% on average will fall within this.

The light blue areas (labeled 13.6%) are what I call "somewhat normal". That is two standard deviations. 95% on average will fall within this area statistically.

When you start seeing values outside the dark blue and light blue areas then there is likely a problem somewhere. If you suddenly start seeing a pattern recurring of months outside these areas then that would be very abnormal and suggest something has changed somewhere. This is one way to find abnormalities statistically in a proven way.

If you were to enter all the monthly data in for the last couple years then you'll get a completely different set of standard deviations and ranges than I have here and your data would be much more accurate with 36 - 60 months instead of my mere 5.

50 submitted join forms

sometimes I get so pissed I dont know what I do, LOL. this one beats the biscuit as I have NO recollection of making this graph !!

(update, i just got an email from Sarah Brightman's PA or something as I said I was going to help out with her orbital space trip on thursday after 3 bottles of red wine, LOL, LOL, LOL, LOL !!!! )

cliff notes on this thread plz

Franck rocks

Sarah is a conspiracy theorist who thinks ccbill and the banks are messing with her. Yes really.
She started the same thread about 10 times till her partner told her to stop doing that because he realized how insane she looks.
Fact is she does like 4 sales a day and can't understand that means there can be 2 days without sales or 1 day with 10. This is way beyond her.
In another thread she explained another conspiracy where her processor stopped the sales. Turned out her site was down. She is batshit crazy.

How has that helped you?

What perspective are you now considering?

You don't even understand his post.

And as everyone tells you, there's no where near enough data to draw any conclusions.

+1 for triple anal updates.. that would help ramp up the join form clicks.

Just sayin...