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-   -   Is the dot com bubble building again? (https://gfy.com/showthread.php?t=1009806)

TheDoc 02-10-2011 03:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeFold (Post 17906745)
just a reminder about valuation....

MySpace Purchase

lot of us thought 1/2 a billion was insane at the time
excluding the lovely tax losses for news corp, i think we were right

Please... Myspace was going to shit years before it was purchased and even after they purchased it they didn't do anything with it, but get blasted with automated built spam pages that redirect people.

Kids and young adults loved myspace too, and that same group hates Twitter. Then FB normally has your parents attached to it, ie: value is returned.

Myspace started taking on water the minute people started auto building spam pages. It's future was doomed from that day forward.

TheDoc 02-10-2011 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SykkBoy (Post 17906842)
Yup, sites like this are valued on a per user value...the same as when a cable company gets bought...they aren't based on revenues, rather the number of users and a per user value.

There is more to it than just revenues generated. For example, if Google bought out Twitter...they would only generate a certain amount of revenues from Twitter itself, BUT, would make more on all of that user data. The more people tweet and expose their likes, dislikes, buying trends, etc. Google could use that data to enhance their own advertising. The more data they have access to, the better they know how to serve up extremely tailored ads.

I actually had a cable company example written up and deleted it... you'll see why... :upsidedow

Many moons back we put in a bid on a small Cable Company. We ended up not getting the bid, but if I remember correctly it was $15 net profit per user - and roughly 10 years to make our return, if we got it. I don't remember what it's overall value was - but I damn sure remember arguing over a 10 year return when porn was returning for us in days, not years.

GTS Mark 02-10-2011 03:28 PM

Twitter is worth a ton, it's reach in the mainstream is absolutely incredible. Look at the protests in Egypt for christ's sake! Half of the protests are arranged by twitter and facebook postings...

Though the multiples might seem insane from a porn webmaster's point of view the valuations for "people in the know" it might not seem so out of control. These are relatively new verticals with a ton of monetization that still needs to be realized.

AmeliaG 02-10-2011 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DamianJ (Post 17906438)
It's got nothing to do with the revenue Twitter currently makes. It is to do with the ridiculously fast and huge growth rate it has had.




The thing you're missing, is that no one gave Biz Stone a billion and said go build a site.

He started it with not much and built it.

No one is stopping you doing what he did. Go for it. Post links when you're up and running.


I don't really consider $119 million not much, but it looks like Twitter's investors are certainly going to get a good return.

This kind of dot com business is really different, in how it is monetized, from the make-a-good-site-with-revenue model.

webair 02-10-2011 03:40 PM

Regarding twitter IPO : http://www.secondmarket.com/press-ar...itter-ipo.html

BestXXXPorn 02-10-2011 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDoc (Post 17907162)
Smartphones out sold PC's the 4th quarter of last year, overall in 2010 PC's just outsold smartphones, by a hair. This is what has helped make the smartphone a LARGER buying power than the PC Web - from mainstream to porn. Thinking it's going away, is pure silly.

What are you talking about? What do I think is going away?

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDoc (Post 17907162)
I assume you're joking with the SaaS as well.... Some will fail, that's normal - but some have 10,000's (and more) of members, that pay monthly, from a few bucks a month, to $100's of dollars each month... they aren't going anywhere anytime soon.

No I'm not joking about SaaS the margins are very high for most models and that is very attractive to investors...

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDoc (Post 17907162)
Tell ya now... you can get all the funding in the world, if you don't go mobile - you will 100% fail, that is without question.

Ok, at this point I think you misread my post... hahahah I'm saying these are the hot topics right now in the tech world, specifically for investors...

I will say though that mobile does not suit all products. There are plenty of markets and products out there where mobile is not a good fit. However, for the vast majority of products out there... without a mobile presence, you're not going to approach any sort of best in class product and if you're talking about the tech industry, you're dead in the water.

TheDoc 02-10-2011 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BestXXXPorn (Post 17907296)
What are you talking about? What do I think is going away?

What do you mean what am I talking about? You said mobile was a bubble - I posted information to show you that it's not just a bubble, that it is as big as the PC market in current sales volume. Give it a few years, and it will easily be ahead of PC's.

Nothing is going away until technology shifts more... such as super broadband on portable devices, that is cheap - then PC's will be put into a hurt, but they won't be totally replaced.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BestXXXPorn (Post 17907296)
No I'm not joking about SaaS the margins are very high for most models and that is very attractive to investors...

Maybe we're talking about different SaaS systems... Besides the fully dedicated online services, like through Google - every Hospital in the Country uses a Saas, doctor offices, major fast food chains, HR and Account departments, etc...

SaaS is something like 10 years old and has already grown into a mutli billion dollar Industry - I truly don't see it going anywhere, anytime soon.


Quote:

Originally Posted by BestXXXPorn (Post 17907296)
I will say though that mobile does not suit all products.

Yet... it didn't work well for advanced games 5 years ago, but now they rock it.

Smartphone technology has been out advancing PC technology by leaps and bounds. PC technology is locked in patents, where smartphone technology isn't.

SZNY 02-10-2011 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BestXXXPorn (Post 17906867)
Beyond any doubt it is certainly bubbling again... specifically for SaaS, social media, and mobile. I could have funding secured in mainstream in 30 -60 days easy; if I wanted to go that direction :P

Unlike the adult space, the dollars aren't scared and they understand where the future of the online space is headed... Meanwhile 95%+ in the adult space is still trying to figure out why the same product offering they had in 1997 isn't selling as well today...

You are completely right, if you see what kind of mainstream sites/apps raise investment funds to bring some innovation its totally out of balance comparing it with startups in Adult space.

In mainstream you need to have a working concept before getting seeding funds so you have to do the initial investments yourself.

At this moment I'm pretty involved in a new innovating mainstream platform and we developed all the stuff from A till Z all running as SaaS.

Now when the 1st release is deployed the client is busy with a round 1 investment and they are pretty successful in raising interest and cash. Big numbers are involved.

In Adult there is almost no innovation and that's pretty bad. If there is something new it's mostly duplicated from mainstream.

woj 02-10-2011 04:45 PM

even google ceo thinks there is a bubble:

Quote:

Asked about the high valuations being put on companies such as social network company Facebook and game developer Zynga, Schmidt said in an interview with Bilanz: "There are clear signs of a bubble ... But valuations are what they are. People believe that these companies will achieve huge sales in the future."

TheDoc 02-10-2011 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SZNY (Post 17907437)
In Adult there is almost no innovation and that's pretty bad. If there is something new it's mostly duplicated from mainstream.

Maybe you're not looking in the right places?

"Porn studio could teach Apple, Google about cloud - Home video innovations always seem to lead back to porn. The fingerprints of the adult-film industry can be found on the development of VHS and Blu-ray disc. Soon, the sector may teach us about the cloud."

http://news.cnet.com/8301-31001_3-20031122-261.html

biskoppen 02-10-2011 04:54 PM

I sale short twitter accounts

~Ray 02-10-2011 04:54 PM

tweet tweet

SZNY 02-10-2011 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDoc (Post 17907452)
Maybe you're not looking in the right places?

"Porn studio could teach Apple, Google about cloud - Home video innovations always seem to lead back to porn. The fingerprints of the adult-film industry can be found on the development of VHS and Blu-ray disc. Soon, the sector may teach us about the cloud."

http://news.cnet.com/8301-31001_3-20031122-261.html

Didn't saw this one yet but I think most of the mainstream VOD/video streaming platforms are already using for some times cloud storage services, especially when its important to distribute content into various areas around the globe.

In terms of innovation I was more aiming on PaaS or SaaS platforms/Apps. If you compare that with Adult vs Mainstream for sure Mainstream has a higher penetration.

To be honest I'm very curious who is busy here with PaaS.

Most of the Adult platforms run on dedicated or managed server platforms where with PaaS solutions you don't have any worries about server management/expanding. You only use/pay for the capacity you use/need. This pretty nice combined with a CDN solution so all is running in a "cloud", no physical server management.

For example Twitter is developed in RoR (Ruby On Rails) and probably they have their own PaaS server farms.

Good PaaS platforms for example for Ruby On Rails Apps are www.engineyard.com or www.heroku.com which was recently purchased by salesforce.com

The majority of the decision makers in Adult space are not focussed on these new technology things but more concentrated in how to maintain/increase their ratios/sales targets.


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