Is the dot com bubble building again?

[Rochard]

Google and Facebook are talking about buying Twitter, and news reports are saying Twitter is worth $8 billion to $10 billion. Get the fuck out of here. How much does Twitter make in a year?

I mean, give me a billion bucks and I'll build you a kick ass website and market it until it's a household name....

[Roald]

Did twitter start with a billion dollar?

Most people would probably fail building a house hold name, even with a billion dollar available.

[~Ray]

I have 316,317 Tweets


(Your Tweets 316,317)

[Agent 488]

yeah easy to build a site with 200,000 users.

[KillerK]

Twitter is huge!

[MikeFold]

if my memory serves me right, they made 45 MIL in 2010 and estimated around 100 MIL in 2011.....i have no clue how they value it at 10 B

[Roald]

Originally Posted by MikeFold

if my memory serves me right, they made 45 MIL in 2010 and estimated around 100 MIL in 2011.....i have no clue how they value it at 10 B

who came up with the number?

In case of FB it was obvious how (or better why) they came up with that number lol

[bronco67]

Originally Posted by MikeFold

if my memory serves me right, they made 45 MIL in 2010 and estimated around 100 MIL in 2011.....i have no clue how they value it at 10 B

It's all about the promise of it's future worth -- which is what got the dotcomers into trouble the last time.

[jaYMan]

feels like it....

Watching everything merge.

[MikeFold]

Originally Posted by Roald

who came up with the number?

In case of FB it was obvious how (or better why) they came up with that number lol

I believe I read it in the WSJ just recently....
let me see if I can find a link

http://www.cleveland.com/business/in...der_buyin.html

[BlackCrayon]

tick tick tick tick POP!

[DamianJ]

Originally Posted by Rochard

Google and Facebook are talking about buying Twitter, and news reports are saying Twitter is worth $8 billion to $10 billion. Get the fuck out of here. How much does Twitter make in a year?

It's got nothing to do with the revenue Twitter currently makes. It is to do with the ridiculously fast and huge growth rate it has had.

Originally Posted by Rochard

I mean, give me a billion bucks and I'll build you a kick ass website and market it until it's a household name....

The thing you're missing, is that no one gave Biz Stone a billion and said go build a site.

He started it with not much and built it.

No one is stopping you doing what he did. Go for it. Post links when you're up and running.

[cooldude7]

no idea, but twitter isnt worth that much.

[TheDoc]

It's not a bubble at all... but that doesn't mean it will last forever either.

Any of us here with a half decent idea/product (that isn't porn) can easily go get investors, vc, etc. Heck you have entire websites dedicated to people investing in Companies/ideas. If you have the next best idea, put together a business plan and start talking to investors just like the others did.

Data on people is worth a ton of money. It's worth far more as time goes on and you learn more about the people. And just like all of us, the more we learn about our traffic - the higher the value of that traffic increases. Another words, as time passes by, Twitter and FB will be worth more money - simply because they learned more about the current users they have.

And that's how they are worth so much...

[camperjohn64]

I hope the dot come is building - I have www.googlefacebooktwittergeoamazonebay.com and host midget porn on it - I am going to be the richest person in the world!

[ArsewithClass]

Originally Posted by cooldude7

no idea, but twitter isnt worth that much.

Everything is only worth what a buyer wants to pay....

If google & FB want to pay that kind of money, then its worth it

[Rochard]

Originally Posted by MikeFold

if my memory serves me right, they made 45 MIL in 2010 and estimated around 100 MIL in 2011.....i have no clue how they value it at 10 B

This is my point. Why is a company that is "estimated to make $100 million next year" valued in billions of dollars? A company isn't worth twenty times what it's estimated potential earning might be.

[jono]

I believe it is. End 2011 into 2012 could be very interesting.

[TheDoc]

Originally Posted by Rochard

This is my point. Why is a company that is "estimated to make $100 million next year" valued in billions of dollars? A company isn't worth twenty times what it's estimated potential earning might be.

They made over a billion dollars in 2010, and cleared $100m net in the last quarter.

What are they at, 7 years? Largest site in the world, more world wide visitors than Google, and FB hasn't monetized even 1% of what they could?

While Google makes what FB does in two weeks, they are equal in traffic. This shows how much they can grow once they start to monetize everything - that's how damn big they are.

If Google is worth it, then FB is damn sure worth it.

[PornoMonster]

Originally Posted by Rochard

This is my point. Why is a company that is "estimated to make $100 million next year" valued in billions of dollars? A company isn't worth twenty times what it's estimated potential earning might be.

Assets and potential earnings.

Remember when Donald Trump was worth X amount, but if you took everything he owned and the loans on the stuff, he was in the hole at one point???

Next year they are going to add pop unders to profiles, LOL

[Rochard]

Originally Posted by TheDoc

They made over a billion dollars in 2010, and cleared $100m net in the last quarter.

What are they at, 7 years? Largest site in the world, more world wide visitors than Google, and FB hasn't monetized even 1% of what they could?

While Google makes what FB does in two weeks, they are equal in traffic. This shows how much they can grow once they start to monetize everything - that's how damn big they are.

If Google is worth it, then FB is damn sure worth it.

They didn't make a billion dollars or even $100m last quarter:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110210/...uisition_talks

The sources said the company had 2010 revenue of $45 million but lost money as it hired and invested in data centers, according to the Journal.

2010 revenue was $45 million for the year - and they lost money.

A company that only makes $45 mil in a year and in fact loses money is worth ten billion? Put down the fucking crack pipe.

[MikeFold]

Originally Posted by TheDoc

They made over a billion dollars in 2010, and cleared $100m net in the last quarter.

What are they at, 7 years? Largest site in the world, more world wide visitors than Google, and FB hasn't monetized even 1% of what they could?

While Google makes what FB does in two weeks, they are equal in traffic. This shows how much they can grow once they start to monetize everything - that's how damn big they are.

If Google is worth it, then FB is damn sure worth it.

Doc....I 'think' Rochard is referring to Twitter (Not FB)...those are the numbers i was looking at

[TheDoc]

Originally Posted by Rochard

They didn't make a billion dollars or even $100m last quarter:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110210/...uisition_talks



2010 revenue was $45 million for the year - and they lost money.

A company that only makes $45 mil in a year and in fact loses money is worth ten billion? Put down the fucking crack pipe.

When I say the largest site in the world, who do you think I'm talking about?

And Twitter, is worth that, the price is based on the amount of active users. A user that is active has a value - and Twitter's user value has increased per user year over year. Thus - it's worth money - even more so when they've hardly done any type of monetization.

Again, the value of twitter is in the user account data. It has nothing to do with revenue, some people are good at building services - others are good at making it turn a profit. Either way, it still has extreme value.

[Rochard]

Originally Posted by MikeFold

Doc....I 'think' Rochard is referring to Twitter (Not FB)...those are the numbers i was looking at

Yeah, I think your right. He said....

Largest site in the world, more world wide visitors than Google, and FB hasn't monetized even 1% of what they could?

I'm talking about Twitter.

But still - FB is the largest, but if they are only pulling in $100 mil a quarter, that's less than half a billion dollars a year. It shouldn't be valued at tens of billions of dollars - It's not making that much, and chances are it will be knocked down in the future. Myspace used to be the standard and we never imagined that it would be replaced, but it was.

[TheDoc]

Originally Posted by MikeFold

Doc....I 'think' Rochard is referring to Twitter (Not FB)...those are the numbers i was looking at

I went off the $100 million last year aspect of the comment.. Never even thought of Twitter. I consider Twitter to be a very new service, I expect it will take them another 2-3 years before, they either go belly up or end up being a real contender - either way, even if someone buys them - it will still take several years before it's really ready.

[TheDoc]

Originally Posted by Rochard

Yeah, I think your right. He said....



I'm talking about Twitter.

But still - FB is the largest, but if they are only pulling in $100 mil a quarter, that's less than half a billion dollars a year. It shouldn't be valued at tens of billions of dollars - It's not making that much, and chances are it will be knocked down in the future. Myspace used to be the standard and we never imagined that it would be replaced, but it was.

They have reports on what the average active user earns the system based on current ad methods-projections for ads, what is spent on ads, what is earned on the products of those ads, and so on...

FB has like a $1000 per user value, doubled in the last two years, 500 million active users - do the math.

[tranza]

Originally Posted by Agent 488

yeah easy to build a site with 200,000 users.

Twitter has over 175M users.... Not 200k.....

[Roald]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why...ion-2011-01-04

Regarding fb.

[TheDoc]

Originally Posted by Roald

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why...ion-2011-01-04

Regarding fb.

Exactly... They already have a per user value and they haven't even remotely monetized the system yet. The real user value estimates are much higher than what marketwatch is stating too, you have to account for the products sold, as FB is going to release similar services and take that money - like music.

[pornguy]

Originally Posted by bronco67

It's all about the promise of it's future worth -- which is what got the dotcomers into trouble the last time.

Yep and this time it could be worse.

[MikeFold]

just a reminder about valuation....

MySpace Purchase

lot of us thought 1/2 a billion was insane at the time
excluding the lovely tax losses for news corp, i think we were right

[Roald]

Originally Posted by MikeFold

just a reminder about valuation....

MySpace Purchase

lot of us thought 1/2 a billion was insane at the time
excluding the lovely tax losses for news corp, i think we were right

Haha first thing that came to mind when i read about THE 50b fb valuation. Perhaps à bit different situation now but still ;)))

[HomerSimpson]

what goes up must go down...

[SomeCreep]

Current valuations for social media are too high. So in that sense, yes social media is a bubble.

[SykkBoy]

Originally Posted by TheDoc

They have reports on what the average active user earns the system based on current ad methods-projections for ads, what is spent on ads, what is earned on the products of those ads, and so on...

FB has like a $1000 per user value, doubled in the last two years, 500 million active users - do the math.

Yup, sites like this are valued on a per user value...the same as when a cable company gets bought...they aren't based on revenues, rather the number of users and a per user value.

There is more to it than just revenues generated. For example, if Google bought out Twitter...they would only generate a certain amount of revenues from Twitter itself, BUT, would make more on all of that user data. The more people tweet and expose their likes, dislikes, buying trends, etc. Google could use that data to enhance their own advertising. The more data they have access to, the better they know how to serve up extremely tailored ads.

[BestXXXPorn]

Beyond any doubt it is certainly bubbling again... specifically for SaaS, social media, and mobile. I could have funding secured in mainstream in 30 -60 days easy; if I wanted to go that direction :P

Unlike the adult space, the dollars aren't scared and they understand where the future of the online space is headed... Meanwhile 95%+ in the adult space is still trying to figure out why the same product offering they had in 1997 isn't selling as well today...

[CyberHustler]

Originally Posted by BestXXXPorn

Beyond any doubt it is certainly bubbling again... specifically for SaaS, social media, and mobile. I could have funding secured in mainstream in 30 -60 days easy; if I wanted to go that direction :P

Unlike the adult space, the dollars aren't scared and they understand where the future of the online space is headed... Meanwhile 95%+ in the adult space is still trying to figure out why the same product offering they had in 1997 isn't selling as well today...

[wehateporn]

My prediction is that we'll soon start to see a major comeback from Geocities; it will be right up there with Facebook and Twitter
-----------------
http://www.eweek.com/c/a/Web-Service...-Later-785579/
Yahoo has pulled the plug on GeoCities, which it acquired in 1999 for $3.6 billion in the hopes that millions of users would use the service to create their own Web pages. The shutdown will come later in 2009, although Yahoo declined to specify an exact timeframe.
-----------------

[TheDoc]

Originally Posted by BestXXXPorn

Beyond any doubt it is certainly bubbling again... specifically for SaaS, social media, and mobile. I could have funding secured in mainstream in 30 -60 days easy; if I wanted to go that direction :P

Unlike the adult space, the dollars aren't scared and they understand where the future of the online space is headed... Meanwhile 95%+ in the adult space is still trying to figure out why the same product offering they had in 1997 isn't selling as well today...

Smartphones out sold PC's the 4th quarter of last year, overall in 2010 PC's just outsold smartphones, by a hair. This is what has helped make the smartphone a LARGER buying power than the PC Web - from mainstream to porn. Thinking it's going away, is pure silly.

I assume you're joking with the SaaS as well.... Some will fail, that's normal - but some have 10,000's (and more) of members, that pay monthly, from a few bucks a month, to $100's of dollars each month... they aren't going anywhere anytime soon.

Tell ya now... you can get all the funding in the world, if you don't go mobile - you will 100% fail, that is without question.

[TheDoc]

Originally Posted by SykkBoy

Yup, sites like this are valued on a per user value...the same as when a cable company gets bought...they aren't based on revenues, rather the number of users and a per user value.

There is more to it than just revenues generated. For example, if Google bought out Twitter...they would only generate a certain amount of revenues from Twitter itself, BUT, would make more on all of that user data. The more people tweet and expose their likes, dislikes, buying trends, etc. Google could use that data to enhance their own advertising. The more data they have access to, the better they know how to serve up extremely tailored ads.

I was going to give the cable company example but deleted it... If Google gets a hold of Twitter, I truly think it will end its life, then again I don't see why FB would get it right either.

[TheDoc]

Originally Posted by MikeFold

just a reminder about valuation....

MySpace Purchase

lot of us thought 1/2 a billion was insane at the time
excluding the lovely tax losses for news corp, i think we were right

Please... Myspace was going to shit years before it was purchased and even after they purchased it they didn't do anything with it, but get blasted with automated built spam pages that redirect people.

Kids and young adults loved myspace too, and that same group hates Twitter. Then FB normally has your parents attached to it, ie: value is returned.

Myspace started taking on water the minute people started auto building spam pages. It's future was doomed from that day forward.

[TheDoc]

Originally Posted by SykkBoy

Yup, sites like this are valued on a per user value...the same as when a cable company gets bought...they aren't based on revenues, rather the number of users and a per user value.

There is more to it than just revenues generated. For example, if Google bought out Twitter...they would only generate a certain amount of revenues from Twitter itself, BUT, would make more on all of that user data. The more people tweet and expose their likes, dislikes, buying trends, etc. Google could use that data to enhance their own advertising. The more data they have access to, the better they know how to serve up extremely tailored ads.

I actually had a cable company example written up and deleted it... you'll see why...

Many moons back we put in a bid on a small Cable Company. We ended up not getting the bid, but if I remember correctly it was $15 net profit per user - and roughly 10 years to make our return, if we got it. I don't remember what it's overall value was - but I damn sure remember arguing over a 10 year return when porn was returning for us in days, not years.

[GTS Mark]

Twitter is worth a ton, it's reach in the mainstream is absolutely incredible. Look at the protests in Egypt for christ's sake! Half of the protests are arranged by twitter and facebook postings...

Though the multiples might seem insane from a porn webmaster's point of view the valuations for "people in the know" it might not seem so out of control. These are relatively new verticals with a ton of monetization that still needs to be realized.

[AmeliaG]

Originally Posted by DamianJ

It's got nothing to do with the revenue Twitter currently makes. It is to do with the ridiculously fast and huge growth rate it has had.




The thing you're missing, is that no one gave Biz Stone a billion and said go build a site.

He started it with not much and built it.

No one is stopping you doing what he did. Go for it. Post links when you're up and running.

I don't really consider $119 million not much, but it looks like Twitter's investors are certainly going to get a good return.

This kind of dot com business is really different, in how it is monetized, from the make-a-good-site-with-revenue model.

[webair]

Regarding twitter IPO : http://www.secondmarket.com/press-ar...itter-ipo.html

[BestXXXPorn]

Originally Posted by TheDoc

Smartphones out sold PC's the 4th quarter of last year, overall in 2010 PC's just outsold smartphones, by a hair. This is what has helped make the smartphone a LARGER buying power than the PC Web - from mainstream to porn. Thinking it's going away, is pure silly.

What are you talking about? What do I think is going away?

Originally Posted by TheDoc

I assume you're joking with the SaaS as well.... Some will fail, that's normal - but some have 10,000's (and more) of members, that pay monthly, from a few bucks a month, to $100's of dollars each month... they aren't going anywhere anytime soon.

No I'm not joking about SaaS the margins are very high for most models and that is very attractive to investors...

Originally Posted by TheDoc

Tell ya now... you can get all the funding in the world, if you don't go mobile - you will 100% fail, that is without question.

Ok, at this point I think you misread my post... hahahah I'm saying these are the hot topics right now in the tech world, specifically for investors...

I will say though that mobile does not suit all products. There are plenty of markets and products out there where mobile is not a good fit. However, for the vast majority of products out there... without a mobile presence, you're not going to approach any sort of best in class product and if you're talking about the tech industry, you're dead in the water.

[TheDoc]

Originally Posted by BestXXXPorn

What are you talking about? What do I think is going away?

What do you mean what am I talking about? You said mobile was a bubble - I posted information to show you that it's not just a bubble, that it is as big as the PC market in current sales volume. Give it a few years, and it will easily be ahead of PC's.

Nothing is going away until technology shifts more... such as super broadband on portable devices, that is cheap - then PC's will be put into a hurt, but they won't be totally replaced.

Originally Posted by BestXXXPorn

No I'm not joking about SaaS the margins are very high for most models and that is very attractive to investors...

Maybe we're talking about different SaaS systems... Besides the fully dedicated online services, like through Google - every Hospital in the Country uses a Saas, doctor offices, major fast food chains, HR and Account departments, etc...

SaaS is something like 10 years old and has already grown into a mutli billion dollar Industry - I truly don't see it going anywhere, anytime soon.

Originally Posted by BestXXXPorn

I will say though that mobile does not suit all products.

Yet... it didn't work well for advanced games 5 years ago, but now they rock it.

Smartphone technology has been out advancing PC technology by leaps and bounds. PC technology is locked in patents, where smartphone technology isn't.

[SZNY]

Originally Posted by BestXXXPorn

Beyond any doubt it is certainly bubbling again... specifically for SaaS, social media, and mobile. I could have funding secured in mainstream in 30 -60 days easy; if I wanted to go that direction :P

Unlike the adult space, the dollars aren't scared and they understand where the future of the online space is headed... Meanwhile 95%+ in the adult space is still trying to figure out why the same product offering they had in 1997 isn't selling as well today...

You are completely right, if you see what kind of mainstream sites/apps raise investment funds to bring some innovation its totally out of balance comparing it with startups in Adult space.

In mainstream you need to have a working concept before getting seeding funds so you have to do the initial investments yourself.

At this moment I'm pretty involved in a new innovating mainstream platform and we developed all the stuff from A till Z all running as SaaS.

Now when the 1st release is deployed the client is busy with a round 1 investment and they are pretty successful in raising interest and cash. Big numbers are involved.

In Adult there is almost no innovation and that's pretty bad. If there is something new it's mostly duplicated from mainstream.

[woj]

even google ceo thinks there is a bubble:

Asked about the high valuations being put on companies such as social network company Facebook and game developer Zynga, Schmidt said in an interview with Bilanz: "There are clear signs of a bubble ... But valuations are what they are. People believe that these companies will achieve huge sales in the future."

[TheDoc]

Originally Posted by SZNY

In Adult there is almost no innovation and that's pretty bad. If there is something new it's mostly duplicated from mainstream.

Maybe you're not looking in the right places?

"Porn studio could teach Apple, Google about cloud - Home video innovations always seem to lead back to porn. The fingerprints of the adult-film industry can be found on the development of VHS and Blu-ray disc. Soon, the sector may teach us about the cloud."

http://news.cnet.com/8301-31001_3-20031122-261.html