well, your hypothesis is correct except for this:
dramatically higher surfer speeds for the western world are just around the corner, fiber optic, high speed wireless, it is coming, and very fast.
18-24 months. and the guys that will have it will have the ability to buy quality content, and they will eschew the lower quality stuff.
so i won't knock the guys shooting with HD cameras, they will have footage in the can ready to encode for these higher speeds.
the truth is, the highest cost in producing content is the model fees---so it is prudent to get that original data captured with state of the art hardware anytime you can---this gives your content a much longer shelf life.
there will ALWAYS be a use for high technical QUALITY, because shortly the world WILL be ready to accept that.
