100 million people worldwide could die. WHO warns of deadly avian flu pandemic

I have it.

lemme guess, it comes from one of these shitholes in Asia (like SARS)

It's kinda funny (and sad) that that isn't the main story on the news sites. It's just a small link on a few of them.

" Gays Can Marry...and also in the news: New princess Diana tapes. Oh yeah and a 100 million people may die"

Wasn't SARS supposed to kill us all?

Airborne is the secret to eternal life.

Yes, I have been following this for quite some time now. Avian Flu is certainyl a VERY REAL threat. Anyone with any foresight what so ever would be well advised to pay attention. They are currently racing to make new drugs to combat the H5N1 strain, but so far it has been resistant to everything they throw at it. My feeling is that it is only a matter of time before it breaks out, and causes a world wide pandemic akin to the Spanish Flu of 1918. Very scary stuff..

Most of us are American.

We don't give a fuck.. CSI is on

I had sex with a duck last night, am I going to die?

The fact that you had sex with a duck sounds more disturbing than the fact you are going to die

Must you judge me?

Dude, it doesn't matter if you are SantaClause, ..it will be in your country, (and knocking on your door) in a matter of days. Guaranteed!

Fuck....

Those at risk are kids and elderly!

Stop spamming my ICQ...
You're not SantaClause!

..also, hate to break it to you kid.. but Santa Claus isn't real.

why does it seem like every disease comes from asia?

Actually no, just like the Spanish flu, everyone will be at risk, even young people.

SARS was not easily transmitted (Thank God0. You had to be in contact with the sick person for a long period of time. That's why the hospital staff got infected in the first place.

With flu, you can be in a room with someone sneezing and you are fucked.

http://www.technewsworld.com/story/h...who-38474.html

International health officials meeting in Bangkok expressed grave fears Friday that the evolving avian flu virus could result in a pandemic.

A senior World Health Organization (WHO) official said the conditions are ripe for a new pandemic, and that the resiliency of the H5N1 virus makes it a likely candidate for an international outbreak.

"We are closer now to an influenza pandemic than at any time in recent years," said Dr. Shiferu Omi, WHO's Western Pacific regional director.

Cyclical Pandemics

He and public health ministers from 13 Asian nations noted that influenza pandemics occur cyclically, every 20 to 30 years, and that another one is overdue.

The unprecedented geographic spread and impact of the H5N1 virus in poultry, and evidence that it is becoming more versatile, would make its eradication impossible, they warned. In addition to killing humans, the virus has also affected other animal populations, most recently tigers in a Thailand zoo.

The two-day public health crisis meeting ended with pledges to coordinate regional efforts of detection and containment in fowl populations.

Officials also called on the international community to become involved in developing vaccines, and safer methods of animal husbandry to limit human and other animal's exposure to the virus.
No One Safe

"It is possible that this pandemic could start in Asia, but once it starts, no country will be safe from it," Dr. Omi said.

The greatest danger would be the eventual morphing of the virus, which could occur if it entered a human or animal already infected by a different kind of influenza, explained Dr. Suchai Charoenratanakul, Thailand's deputy public health minister.

If that occurred, the DNA could mix and create a new virus strain transmittable among humans, or even pigs and humans, he said.

"If we are very aggressive from the beginning, the chances of reducing the effects on humans will be greater," said WHO Assistant Director General Asamon Baah.

"Prevention is about getting resources and systems in place before it happens, so that when it does we won't be surprised."

I watched this documentary that followed this organization called Doctors Without Borders, and they were in some small village in China, and everyone who gets sick thinks the reason they got sick is because of "spirits" made them sick.

If you have a cold - spirits made it happen

If you break your leg - spirits made it happen

If you get an eye infection - spirits made it happen

The family then gathers up money so that they can get some kind of voodoo spirit healer dude to come and cure them of the evil spirits.

True, but risk of death is more prominant in the child and elderly population, in otherwords 90% of the 100 million that will die, will be in those two groups!

i have a friend who was born and raised in the Phillipines and he said they belived in elves and everything,

one time as a child when he was really sick they thought elves had infected him, he went to a witch doctor and all, makes you wonder.

LOL, it's amazing there aren't more Asian flu's going around.

lol, this is LAST WEEKS NEWS

and logically it made HEADLINES LAST FUCKIN WEEK

im not scared

geeze whats you said got me thinking, and my buddy wasnt joking either, they actually took him to a witch doctor,

i sometimes forget that half the world is still backwards,

keep your shit over there we need to put landmines around northamerica.

perfect.

Why? Are wiggers immune?

have you ever seen a sick wigger?

The answer depends on if you mean mentally or physically.

I see a lot of tv, and I have never seen this on tv, or yahoo etc, I only see posts on this site ??

Is your TV being censored or what? I have been following H5N1 since it appeared in 1997 in Hong Kong.

Do a search about "H5N1" on google.

Now it's widespread in Asia, just waiting for the next human flu virus to give it's information how to spread from a human being to another one.

touche.

i suppose it is a sacrifice that wiggerkind must endure to assure themselves of the utmost physical prowess.

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/pandemics.htm

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/facts.htm

Background on Pandemics

An influenza pandemic is a global outbreak of influenza and occurs when a new influenza virus emerges, spreads, and causes disease worldwide. Past influenza pandemics have led to high levels of illness, death, social disruption and economic loss.

There were 3 pandemics in the 20th century. All of them spread worldwide within 1 year of being detected. They are:

* 1918-19, "Spanish flu," [A (H1N1)], caused the highest number of known flu deaths: more than 500,000 people died in the United States, and 20 million to 50 million people may have died worldwide. Many people died within the first few days after infection and others died of complications soon after. Nearly half of those who died were young, healthy adults.

* 1957-58, "Asian flu," [A (H2N2)], caused about 70,000 deaths in the United States. First identified in China in late February 1957, the Asian flu spread to the United States by June 1957.

* 1968-69, "Hong Kong flu," [A (H3N2)], caused approximately 34,000 deaths in the United States. This virus was first detected in Hong Kong in early 1968 and spread to the United States later that year. Type A (H3N2) viruses still circulate today.

Once a new pandemic influenza virus emerges and spreads, it typically becomes established among people and circulates for many years. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization conduct extensive surveillance programs to monitor the occurrence of influenza activity worldwide, including the emergence of potential pandemic strains of influenza virus.

I am not doubting anyone, I just think I shouldn't have to search for such specific info on google if it's that big. I guess what I am saying, is 30% of the world population? that's bigger news than the local weather, that should be on the news all the time.

So since '97, does that mean 100million over 10 years
or 100million over 1 year?

The H5N1 bird flu virus hasn't acquired genes from a human yet. Right now, you get infected if you are close to a dead chicken that died of H5N1.

Once it knows how to spread from human to another human, trust me you will know about it.

Another thing, right now, vaccines are made from chicken eggs, the problem with H5N1 is that it kills the egg also, so we have to find another way to create a vaccine.

Another thing :

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ne...nG=Search+News

When are they guessing this will hit humans?
Is this something they have talked about for some years, or is this breaking news?

It's now inevitable. It could be next week or next year. We are overdue for a pandemic flu and the scientists now know it's going to be H5N1.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/29/health/29cnd-flu.html

U.N. Health Official Foresees Tens of Millions Dying in a Global Flu

HONG KONG, Nov. 29 - A pandemic of human influenza could kill up to 100 million people around the world, a World Health Organization official said today, significantly raising the agency's earlier estimates of the number of deaths in such a catastrophe.

W.H.O., a United Nations agency based in Geneva, has been warning about the potential for the A(H5N1) strain of avian influenza virus (known popularly as bird flu), which has spread widely through Southeast Asia to mutate and cause the next pandemic.

Governments should be prepared to close schools, office buildings and factories to slow the rate of new infections if a pandemic strikes, and should work out emergency staffing arrangements to prevent a breakdown in basic public services like electricity and transportation, W.H.O.'s regional director for Asia and the Pacific, Dr. Shigeru Omi, said.

Such arrangements may be needed if the disease infects 25 to 30 percent of the world's population, Dr. Omi said in a speech and news conference. That is the W.H.O.'s current estimate for what could happen if the disease - currently found mainly in chickens, ducks and other birds - develops the ability to spread easily from person to person.

The death toll associated with the rapid spread of a new form of human influenza would be high, Dr. Omi said. While W.H.O. has previously said that the death toll would be 2 million to 7 million people, Dr. Omi said the toll "may be more - 20 million or 50 million, or in the worst case, 100" million.

And Dr. Omi said that in his opinion a global pandemic of influenza was "very, very likely" now.

Reached later, W.H.O. officials in Geneva said they had not received an advance copy of Dr. Omi's remarks and did not know the basis for his estimates and why he believed a pandemic was imminent.

W.H.O. has expressed concern that the avian strain has become a more dangerous threat as it has jumped species. But Dr. Omi's estimates are not based on any new scientific information about the virus's ability to cause human disease or ways to assess the odds that the virus will become readily transmissible among people.

In sounding the alarm about avian influenza, "W.H.O. is trying to raise concern because we're concerned, but W.H.O. is not trying to scare the planet," a spokesman for the agency, Dick Thompson, said in a telephone interview.

"No one knows how many are likely to die in the next human influenza pandemic", even when it will occur, Dr. Klaus Stöhr, W.H.O.'s top influenza expert, said. "The numbers are all over the place."

W.H.O. is using different historical, mathematical and demographic models to better estimate the number of people who might become ill and die in the next pandemic, Dr. Stöhr said. Such reports are expected to be available by next week.

Dr. Malik Peiris, a top influenza researcher at Hong Kong University, said that Dr. Omi's range of possible death tolls was realistic and consistent with current research into the A(H5N1) avian influenza virus. The biggest questions, Dr. Peiris said, are whether the disease will develop the ability to spread easily from person to person and, if it does so, whether it will retain its current deadliness.

"H5N1 in its present form has a pretty lethal effect on humans," he said.

A few analysts have suggested that the death toll could be considerably higher. Henry L. Niman, a medical researcher in Pittsburgh, who tends toward gloomy predictions and is a strong critic of W.H.O. for being too conservative, said that with more than 70 percent of the human victims of the disease dying so far, the death toll could in theory exceed a billion people if the disease were to spread rapidly among people with little if any reduction in current mortality rates.

"That estimate is unscientific unjustified, and an inaccurate extrapolation from the current situation," Dr. Stöhr, the W.H.O. expert, said.

W.H.O. has reported 44 confirmed human cases of A(H5N1), all in Thailand and Vietnam, and 32 of the patients, or 72.7 percent, have died. W.H.O. has identified only one case of probable human-to-human transmission, a Thai mother who cradled her dying daughter all night, while the rest of the cases appear to have been acquired directly from animals.

Dr. Stöhr, Dr. Omi and Dr. Peiris each said that the high death rate recorded for human A(H5N1) infection so far might be overstated, because people with less severe cases of the disease might not be diagnosed as having it at all.

Virologists have been struggling to determine how and whether the disease might develop the ability to spread easily from person to person through the air the same way human influenza viruses do. Dr. Omi said that for several reasons, it was becoming more and more likely that the virus would develop the ability to spread among people.

The virus has proved highly versatile in mixing genetic material with other viruses, he said. The disease has recently evolved the ability to survive in domesticated ducks and be excreted in large quantities without making the ducks sick, making it hard for farmers and veterinarians to know which birds to cull. And the world has gone an unusually long time since the last influenza pandemic, the relatively mild Hong Kong flu pandemic in 1968.

No significant quantities of vaccine for disease caused by A(H5N1) are likely to be available until five or six months after the virus becomes a pandemic, Dr. Omi said. The virus is constantly evolving, and vaccine manufacturers will not want to commit themselves to large-scale production now of a vaccine that may prove worthless if the virus evolves further before starting a pandemic, he said.

Even when a vaccine does go into mass production, pharmaceutical companies have the capacity to make enough vaccine only for a small percentage of the world's population. "Some people say if we develop a vaccine, that can avert a pandemic - that is not the case at all," Dr. Omi said.

"W.H.O. has never said that a vaccine would avert an influenza pandemic," Mr. Thompson said. But, he added, "it would be irresponsible not to try to develop a vaccine against a pandemic strain of human influenza virus" because such a vaccine would reduce the severity of illness and "hopefully save lives and perhaps slow any pandemic."

At W.H.O.'s urging, a small but growing number of governments are starting to make contingency plans for a pandemic. The United States unveiled its plan earlier this autumn, but that plan said that further study would be needed on how to address difficult questions like how to allocate scarce medical supplies during any crisis.

The secretary of health, welfare and food in Hong Kong, Dr. York Chow, said in a radio interview there this morning, before Dr. Omi spoke at lunchtime, that in December the Hong Kong government would announce its plans for preventing the spread of avian influenza in local poultry and to respond to any possible outbreak among people.

I think I'm just getting over it. Now if I can just figure out who the fuck brought it to Santa Monica for Webmaster Access I can have them offed. ;)