Hillary will secure the nomination, easily, but likely won't win. Not because she's a woman, but because she's simply too polarizing. She'd be strong where Kerry was, in the cities, but rural women wouldn't cross over for her...not when she's ridiculed them via off handed remarks for being stay-at-home Moms.
It comes down to McCain/Giuliani, which will be interesting because Giuliani doesn't pander to the Southern Religious nuts the way the rest of the party does, which while noble, might not get him enough votes to actually win. And his NY pull is no advantage, all of NY's electoral votes will go to the left as they always do, so he can't win his critical "home state".
The Right is now so firmly intertwined with all these biblethumpers that they have no choice but to appease them, otherwise they lose. Not sure Giuliani can repaint himself as some sort of latter-day Christian to get all the god fanatics lined up for him...
Bush/Kerry vote counts in 04 by county:
