Some Political News to Brighten Your Morning.......if US election held today........

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  • Bansheelinks
    Confirmed User
    • Apr 2003
    • 6023

    #1

    Some Political News to Brighten Your Morning.......if US election held today........

    http://www.electoral-vote.com/

    Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 327 Bush 211

    This guy is the most intensive study of the electoral vote process......he's a poll junkie and breaks it right the fuck down with each most recent state-by-state polls, and he pays very close attention to the battleground states, where this'll be won and lost.

  • pxxx
    First African GFY Member
    • Mar 2004
    • 12114

    #2
    I think Kerry will be ahead by more then that.

    Comment

    • NiteRain
      Confirmed User
      • Jul 2002
      • 600

      #3
      LOL, this election stuff is almost like a football game. Everyone is tuning in.
      AIM: PerlScriptor

      Comment

      • genomega
        Confirmed User
        • Feb 2002
        • 1190

        #4
        I wouldn't wager a whole lot of money on this.


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        • NoCarrier
          We need more free porn
          • Mar 2002
          • 16356

          #5
          Bush will win, get used to it. Now.

          Comment

          • strats
            Too lazy to set a custom title
            • Feb 2004
            • 1805

            #6
            yeah? what about nader? o yeah, they dont include him because america runs the media, and we cant have a real person win

            Comment

            • contentjunky
              Confirmed User
              • May 2004
              • 377

              #7
              Im hoping for Kerry. He has my vote so far.
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              Comment

              • pussyluver
                Clueless OleMan
                • Mar 2003
                • 11009

                #8
                Originally posted by NoCarrier
                Bush will win, get used to it. Now.
                Hope all you want, but I think No Carrier is right.

                Powell and others will leave though. John Assht, will stay

                If you think Kerry is a quick study on the electroal count, the Bush team is on top of it for sure..

                Comment

                • MickeyG
                  Confirmed User
                  • May 2004
                  • 4134

                  #9
                  both of them make me sick

                  Comment

                  • Furious_Male
                    Doing the grind since 99
                    • Oct 2003
                    • 16884

                    #10
                    Good to see but I am sure there are other analyists that have it the other way around. A lot of flip flopping going around.

                    Bush hasn't pulled his rabbit out of the hat yet.
                    Living in Virtual Reality
                    Contact: Email (preferred): furiousmale .at. gmail - Skype: live:shanedws

                    Comment

                    • TheMob?
                      Confirmed User
                      • Jan 2003
                      • 8584

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Furious_Male
                      Good to see but I am sure there are other analyists that have it the other way around. A lot of flip flopping going around.

                      Bush hasn't pulled his rabbit out of the hat yet.
                      Osama? Or WMD in iraq?

                      Comment

                      • CDSmith
                        Too lazy to set a custom title
                        • May 2001
                        • 51460

                        #12
                        Polititions: If everyone stopped voting, would they all just go away?
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                        • detroitiron
                          So Fucking Banned
                          • Apr 2004
                          • 157

                          #13
                          People that actually vote seem to be in favor of bush, people that don't normally vote seem to be in favor of anyone else. Those that vote usually get thier man in. If you hit up the mercedes forums and such, they seem to all be for Bush...

                          Comment

                          • SuckOnThis
                            So Fucking Banned
                            • Oct 2003
                            • 6844

                            #14
                            Originally posted by detroitiron
                            People that actually vote seem to be in favor of bush, people that don't normally vote seem to be in favor of anyone else. Those that vote usually get thier man in. If you hit up the mercedes forums and such, they seem to all be for Bush...

                            Thats not true. Half the people that normally vote favor Kerry and half that normally vote favor Bush (look at the 2000 election). Polls are taken from registered voters.

                            The difference is people that don't usually vote or have never voted before (i.e. younger people) heavily favor Kerry and I think there will be a high turnout of these type of people and hopefully that will make the difference. Of course Bush will pull some shit so its not going to matter anyway.

                            Comment

                            • Bansheelinks
                              Confirmed User
                              • Apr 2003
                              • 6023

                              #15
                              Some of you are failing to realize the signifigance of these numbers and breakdowns state-by-state..........important points to consider:

                              1) the economic numbers in the industrial midwestern states are very poor and the Bush team is very disappointed and scared by them............if Bush cannot capture at least some of these states, like Michigan etc, he will lose EVEN if he wins Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.........it would be tight but he'd lose anyways......

                              2) Bush is fading badly in Pennsylvania........sometimes trailing by as much as 10%.......Kerry would now have to fuck up badly to lose PA, and thats 21 electoral votes

                              3) Once again, the electorate has polarized.........thats why Kerry didn't get hardly any bump at all from the Democratic convention, and neither will Bush from his. In other words, most have decided as your either for Bush, or against him........its called polarization.

                              4) The reason Bush is close in the over-all poll is his overwhelming southern support.........but again, he has a problem......most of his support is focused strongly there........he will win several southern states by 10-15-20%, but that doesn't help him in the close states. Kerry's support is stronger over-all and less concentrated, meaning its more likely that he will pull out some close victories in the swing states.

                              5) Kerry presently leads in Florida and Ohio even, although those two swing back in forth. If he gets EITHER of them, it'll be a blowout because he will get Pennsylvania. Like I said before, Bush is trailing in almost every midwestern industrial state; without that, its game over as the other states have already decided.

                              6) Don't forget, the debates haven't happened yet. Bush is bumbling moron in front of the mic but a shrewd manipulator of election campaigns. Ask Ann Richards of Texas who was supposedly unbeatable. But in a close election, the debates are very important and he sucks and will have a poor record to defend..........WMD's, Iraq, and MOST IMPORTANTLY, a net job loss for his term.

                              Kerry will destroy him in the debates and don't be surprised if there is an "a-ha" moment in them. Kerry is very smart and will get in some memorable one-liners.


                              Comment

                              • Clicky_Bucks
                                Confirmed User
                                • Jul 2004
                                • 746

                                #16
                                Pretty meaningless poll since Bush hasn't had his convention yet and Kerry did.....
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                                • Clicky_Bucks
                                  Confirmed User
                                  • Jul 2004
                                  • 746

                                  #17
                                  Ah, so Kerry will destroy him in the debates yet Al Gore didn't? Oh ok, thanks for clearing that up.
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                                  • Melody
                                    Confirmed User
                                    • Dec 2002
                                    • 130

                                    #18
                                    The convention is meaningless. The two "sides" are so polarized, there will be no bounce - there wasn't after the Dem convention. Bansheelinks analysis is correct, imho and whomever said that voter virgins will sway the vote is exactly right. Go look at the voter registration at the local college.

                                    It's (according to statistics) impossible for Bush to pull out a win now, barring his raising Pat Tillman from the dead...and I mean personally via laying-on-of-hands.
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                                    • maxsweet
                                      Confirmed User
                                      • May 2002
                                      • 310

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by CDSmith
                                      Polititions: If everyone stopped voting, would they all just go away?
                                      If voting actually changed anything it would be illegal.

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                                      • Clicky_Bucks
                                        Confirmed User
                                        • Jul 2004
                                        • 746

                                        #20
                                        So, is this the dummycrats rallying cry now? "Both sides are polarized!"

                                        I mean, do you have any stats to back that up? Do you know that Bush's approval rating is 51 percent and no president with an approval rating over 50 percent this late ever lost an election?

                                        It looks like the Dems just wish they could freeze time until November and have the election, hence, the continual polarized line they keep trumping out.

                                        Whatever, we'll see after Bush's convention. If you honestly don't think he will get a bump after that, then you are more stupid then I previously thought.
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                                        • alexg
                                          IL4L.com
                                          • Aug 2003
                                          • 11287

                                          #21
                                          bush will win the elections.
                                          you'll see

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                                          Comment

                                          • DarkBob
                                            Confirmed User
                                            • Jun 2001
                                            • 2300

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by Clicky_Bucks
                                            I mean, do you have any stats to back that up? Do you know that Bush's approval rating is 51 percent and no president with an approval rating over 50 percent this late ever lost an election?
                                            I found these stats from last month:

                                            President George W. Bush?s job approval rating in this poll is 45 percent; 48 percent disapprove. This is about where his rating has hovered over the past few months, though an improvement from the low of 41 percent recorded in May. Other evaluations are also little changed from a month ago.

                                            http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/...in630312.shtml

                                            where did your stats come from, Fox news?
                                            Bling Cash Kicks Ass

                                            Comment

                                            • stocktrader23
                                              Let's do some business.
                                              • Jan 2003
                                              • 18781

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by DarkBob

                                              where did your stats come from, Fox news?
                                              I'd imagine directly from the Bush camp. I remember hating Bush during the last election and all of my friends arguing with me about how great he was. Now those same friends can't stand him. Being that the last election was neck in neck I can't fathom him getting re-elected after pissing off so many that backed him 4 years ago.


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                                              Comment

                                              • baddog
                                                So Fucking Banned
                                                • Apr 2001
                                                • 107089

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Bansheelinks
                                                http://www.electoral-vote.com/

                                                Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 327 Bush 211

                                                bullshit . . . no matter who wins, it won't be by that much of a margin

                                                Comment

                                                • Michaelious
                                                  Confirmed User
                                                  • Jan 2004
                                                  • 6720

                                                  #25
                                                  Maybe his poll is right, but it'll all change when they have to vote in Florida, remember the last time..

                                                  Comment

                                                  • stocktrader23
                                                    Let's do some business.
                                                    • Jan 2003
                                                    • 18781

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by baddog
                                                    bullshit . . . no matter who wins, it won't be by that much of a margin
                                                    I bet he's pretty damn accurate. The map is all red but the elecoral votes are swayed the other way, that's usually how it goes.


                                                    Hands Free Adult - Join Once, Earn For Life

                                                    "I try to make a habit of bouncing my eyes up to the face of a beautiful woman, and often repeat “not mine” in my head or even verbally. She’s not mine. God has her set aside. She’s not mine. She’s His little girl, and she needs me to fight for her by keeping my eyes where they should be."

                                                    Comment

                                                    • baddog
                                                      So Fucking Banned
                                                      • Apr 2001
                                                      • 107089

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by stocktrader23
                                                      I bet he's pretty damn accurate.
                                                      how much?

                                                      Comment

                                                      • titmowse
                                                        Confirmed User
                                                        • Jan 2001
                                                        • 5320

                                                        #28
                                                        http://www.rasmussenreports.com/election_2004.htm
                                                        I still love everybody

                                                        Comment

                                                        • VeriSexy
                                                          Join The Royal Family
                                                          • Apr 2002
                                                          • 25463

                                                          #29
                                                          Bush will win again 100%
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                                                          • jawanda
                                                            Confirmed User
                                                            • Feb 2003
                                                            • 6040

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by VeriSexy
                                                            Bush will win again 100%
                                                            Anyone with that much confidence, on either side, is completely dillusional.

                                                            You should really get some help ... this could turn into a serious problem for you.

                                                            Checkout this page, it has a list of common mental disorders ... if you see the signs early, it is possible to get treatment and live a relatively 'normal' life. http://my.webmd.com/content/article/60/67134.htm

                                                            Please, it's never too late. Pull your head out of your ass as soon as possible.

                                                            Good luck and God Bless.

                                                            -Phil
                                                            Last edited by jawanda; 08-14-2004, 03:23 PM.

                                                            Comment

                                                            • jawanda
                                                              Confirmed User
                                                              • Feb 2003
                                                              • 6040

                                                              #31
                                                              --

                                                              Comment

                                                              • WarChild
                                                                Let slip the dogs of war.
                                                                • Jan 2003
                                                                • 17263

                                                                #32
                                                                Four more years!

                                                                Either way .. at least the heavily liberal left wing will shut up for 3 years.
                                                                .

                                                                Comment

                                                                • Bansheelinks
                                                                  Confirmed User
                                                                  • Apr 2003
                                                                  • 6023

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by WarChild
                                                                  Four more years!

                                                                  Either way .. at least the heavily liberal left wing will shut up for 3 years.
                                                                  the so-called "liberal left" is whats keeping your ass in business.........i can see adult webmasters being fiscally conservative as i am, but c'mon, socially conservative? do you want these fuckin' nutcases to keep harrassing us until we are out of business? what about the supreme court? one more mealy-mouthed conservative on there and things like COPA would be upheld.......

                                                                  i am speaking to the webmasters out their who are repubs........vote prudently, vote with your pocketbook.......vote bush and his crony, john asshead, out of office

                                                                  Comment

                                                                  • slapass
                                                                    Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                    • Nov 2002
                                                                    • 14625

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by Bansheelinks
                                                                    the so-called "liberal left" is whats keeping your ass in business.........i can see adult webmasters being fiscally conservative as i am, but c'mon, socially conservative? do you want these fuckin' nutcases to keep harrassing us until we are out of business? what about the supreme court? one more mealy-mouthed conservative on there and things like COPA would be upheld.......

                                                                    i am speaking to the webmasters out their who are repubs........vote prudently, vote with your pocketbook.......vote bush and his crony, john asshead, out of office
                                                                    Well said.

                                                                    Comment

                                                                    • Tat2Jr
                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                      • Feb 2001
                                                                      • 4882

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by Bansheelinks
                                                                      what about the supreme court? one more mealy-mouthed conservative on there and things like COPA would be upheld.......
                                                                      Whew! I hear ya. One more and were screwed for 20-30 years +
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                                                                      • WarChild
                                                                        Let slip the dogs of war.
                                                                        • Jan 2003
                                                                        • 17263

                                                                        #36
                                                                        Originally posted by Bansheelinks
                                                                        the so-called "liberal left" is whats keeping your ass in business.........i can see adult webmasters being fiscally conservative as i am, but c'mon, socially conservative? do you want these fuckin' nutcases to keep harrassing us until we are out of business? what about the supreme court? one more mealy-mouthed conservative on there and things like COPA would be upheld.......

                                                                        i am speaking to the webmasters out their who are repubs........vote prudently, vote with your pocketbook.......vote bush and his crony, john asshead, out of office
                                                                        Actually I like Bush regime changing Arab states. Hope he gets them all.

                                                                        I'm also Canadian. Have fun with your new regs.

                                                                        4 more years!
                                                                        Last edited by WarChild; 08-14-2004, 07:51 PM.
                                                                        .

                                                                        Comment

                                                                        • hydro
                                                                          Confirmed User
                                                                          • Dec 2003
                                                                          • 4216

                                                                          #37
                                                                          adult webmasters for bush is all about sig views

                                                                          but either way this business won't die. Take a look at offshore pharmacies, casinos, and even spam friendly sponsors. All offshore and almost all of thier affiliates in the usa. They stay in business because they go offshore

                                                                          Comment

                                                                          • VeriSexy
                                                                            Join The Royal Family
                                                                            • Apr 2002
                                                                            • 25463

                                                                            #38
                                                                            Originally posted by jawanda
                                                                            Anyone with that much confidence, on either side, is completely dillusional.

                                                                            You should really get some help ... this could turn into a serious problem for you.

                                                                            Checkout this page, it has a list of common mental disorders ... if you see the signs early, it is possible to get treatment and live a relatively 'normal' life. http://my.webmd.com/content/article/60/67134.htm

                                                                            Please, it's never too late. Pull your head out of your ass as soon as possible.

                                                                            Good luck and God Bless.

                                                                            -Phil
                                                                            Everything is all planned out, Bush will win again
                                                                            Looking for a KICK ASS TEEN SPONSOR? Check out ROYAL CASH - THE KING OF TEEN!
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                                                                            .
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                                                                            Comment

                                                                            • nofx
                                                                              Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                              • Nov 2002
                                                                              • 16826

                                                                              #39

                                                                              Often times I wonder why
                                                                              There's love and hate, theres live or die.
                                                                              When sickness comes I must decide:
                                                                              When feelings go, theres suicide.

                                                                              Comment

                                                                              • Illicit
                                                                                wtf ?
                                                                                • Dec 2003
                                                                                • 11895

                                                                                #40
                                                                                Originally posted by NoCarrier
                                                                                Bush will win, get used to it. Now.
                                                                                nobody wants to face the truth
                                                                                Insert Sig Here

                                                                                Comment

                                                                                • Bansheelinks
                                                                                  Confirmed User
                                                                                  • Apr 2003
                                                                                  • 6023

                                                                                  #41
                                                                                  Originally posted by WarChild
                                                                                  Actually I like Bush regime changing Arab states. Hope he gets them all.

                                                                                  I'm also Canadian. Have fun with your new regs.

                                                                                  4 more years!
                                                                                  some webmasters never cease to amaze me with their nonsensical views..........so what if you are canadian.......if we in the US keep getting harrassed, that will affect proggies and whatnot, hosting, etc..........

                                                                                  i have cdn friends who tell me BW up their is 4x the cost of ours, and in the adult biz thats a killer............keep to your views......more repub administrations will affect you too, but your too blind to see it

                                                                                  Comment

                                                                                  • extreme
                                                                                    Confirmed User
                                                                                    • Oct 2002
                                                                                    • 2120

                                                                                    #42
                                                                                    on the bright side, IF bush wins it's max 4 more years, then it's definitely over. Hopefully it will be 0 more years.

                                                                                    Comment

                                                                                    • DarkBob
                                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                                      • Jun 2001
                                                                                      • 2300

                                                                                      #43
                                                                                      Originally posted by extreme
                                                                                      on the bright side, IF bush wins it's max 4 more years, then it's definitely over. Hopefully it will be 0 more years.
                                                                                      A lot of bad things can happen in 4 years
                                                                                      Bling Cash Kicks Ass

                                                                                      Comment

                                                                                      • ronbotx
                                                                                        Registered User
                                                                                        • Jan 2002
                                                                                        • 1634

                                                                                        #44
                                                                                        Originally posted by DarkBob
                                                                                        I found these stats from last month:

                                                                                        President George W. Bush?s job approval rating in this poll is 45 percent; 48 percent disapprove. This is about where his rating has hovered over the past few months, though an improvement from the low of 41 percent recorded in May. Other evaluations are also little changed from a month ago.

                                                                                        http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/...in630312.shtml

                                                                                        where did your stats come from, Fox news?
                                                                                        No idiot... he got those numbers from the most recent Gallup poll, not the month old one you WISH was correct. His approval is at 51%. Funny how upset the lefties become when its bad news for Kerry-Edwards.
                                                                                        http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news...top_world_news
                                                                                        Last edited by ronbotx; 08-14-2004, 09:37 PM.

                                                                                        Comment

                                                                                        • BradM
                                                                                          Confirmed User
                                                                                          • Dec 2003
                                                                                          • 3397

                                                                                          #45
                                                                                          Originally posted by nofx

                                                                                          Comment

                                                                                          • WarChild
                                                                                            Let slip the dogs of war.
                                                                                            • Jan 2003
                                                                                            • 17263

                                                                                            #46
                                                                                            Originally posted by Bansheelinks
                                                                                            some webmasters never cease to amaze me with their nonsensical views..........so what if you are canadian.......if we in the US keep getting harrassed, that will affect proggies and whatnot, hosting, etc..........

                                                                                            i have cdn friends who tell me BW up their is 4x the cost of ours, and in the adult biz thats a killer............keep to your views......more repub administrations will affect you too, but your too blind to see it

                                                                                            Blah blah blah.

                                                                                            Fact of the matter is ... If it were illegal for you to run websites in the US, that'd be very good for me. We'd have US customers, and no US competition.

                                                                                            Sponsors would move out of the US. Bandwidth is available in Canada, and it's not 4X as much.

                                                                                            Four more years!
                                                                                            .

                                                                                            Comment

                                                                                            • baddog
                                                                                              So Fucking Banned
                                                                                              • Apr 2001
                                                                                              • 107089

                                                                                              #47
                                                                                              Originally posted by slapass
                                                                                              Well said.
                                                                                              with all those spelling errors? not hardly

                                                                                              Comment

                                                                                              • Theo
                                                                                                HAL 9000
                                                                                                • May 2001
                                                                                                • 34515

                                                                                                #48
                                                                                                timowse,what's the Tossup number in the results?

                                                                                                Comment

                                                                                                • DarkBob
                                                                                                  Confirmed User
                                                                                                  • Jun 2001
                                                                                                  • 2300

                                                                                                  #49
                                                                                                  Originally posted by ronbotx
                                                                                                  No idiot... he got those numbers from the most recent Gallup poll, not the month old one you WISH was correct. His approval is at 51%. Funny how upset the lefties become when its bad news for Kerry-Edwards.
                                                                                                  http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news...top_world_news

                                                                                                  sit home and look at your numbers and call people names. I'm out getting people registered to vote. See you at the polls.
                                                                                                  Bling Cash Kicks Ass

                                                                                                  Comment

                                                                                                  • Bansheelinks
                                                                                                    Confirmed User
                                                                                                    • Apr 2003
                                                                                                    • 6023

                                                                                                    #50
                                                                                                    Originally posted by Soul_Rebel
                                                                                                    timowse,what's the Tossup number in the results?
                                                                                                    rassmussen is way off............he has Pennsylvania as a tossup? Kerry has been leading there solidly for months and now he's up almost 10 points.........hardly a tossup

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