Tonights odds of winning $120 million are 1 in 47 million.

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  • raymor
    Confirmed User
    • Oct 2002
    • 3745
    #1

    Tonights odds of winning $120 million are 1 in 47 million.

    I buy a lottery ticket about once a year
    because the odds against hitting the jackpot
    are 1 in 47 million. Tonight's Lotto Texas
    jackpot is the highest ever, at $120 million.
    I was thinking, if 10 of my friends each pitched in $10
    to get 100 tickets they would have a one in in
    470 thousand chance of getting a $12,000,000 share.
    That's not too bad for $10. Yeah, that's not too bad at all.
    let me know if you want me to pick 10 tickets for you.

    Ray
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    • iownthefrench
      Confirmed User
      • May 2004
      • 211
      #2
      hey DUDE, an even COOLER idea, just buy 47 million tickets, and you'll have a 100% chance of winning! COOL!

      whenever this happens, and they actually win, expect a long drawn out legal battle over what % of the ticket was yours.

        Comment

        • SlickRick
          Confirmed User
          • Jan 2003
          • 2849
          #3
          I read something some time back when the CA lottery started
          your odds of getting struck by lightining while sitting on the tolet are better then winning the lotto...

            Comment

            • SpaceAce
              Confirmed User
              • Jul 2002
              • 6493
              #4
              I don't know exactly what taxes you have in Texas but if you take the cash option, you're probably looking at $60,000,000 so you've got a 1:47,000,000 chance of winning $60,000,000 except that so many people will be buying tickets for this huge jackpot that you'll probably end up splitting it with other winners.

              SpaceAce

                Comment

                • Meta Ridley
                  Confirmed User
                  • Sep 2003
                  • 3433
                  #5
                  Buying 100 tickets does NOT change your odds to 1 in 470,000.
                  [email protected]

                    Comment

                    • DrewKole
                      Confirmed User
                      • Jul 2001
                      • 5193
                      #6
                      My office all pitched in quite a bit each. =)

                        Comment

                        • Alltopnotch
                          Confirmed User
                          • May 2004
                          • 2845
                          #7
                          you live in texas? i'm sorry...
                          WANT A FREE LAPTOP?

                            Comment

                            • buddyjuf
                              #8
                              Originally posted by Meta Ridley
                              Buying 100 tickets does NOT change your odds to 1 in 470,000.
                              of course it does

                              what is your reasoning?

                                Comment

                                • stocktrader23
                                  Let's do some business.
                                  • Jan 2003
                                  • 18781
                                  #9
                                  Originally posted by bdjuf
                                  of course it does

                                  what is your reasoning?
                                  He's looking at mathematics for that "special" child.


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                                    Comment

                                    • Meta Ridley
                                      Confirmed User
                                      • Sep 2003
                                      • 3433
                                      #10
                                      100 chances at 1 in 47 million is a different thing than 1 in 470,000

                                      Maybe you need special school
                                      [email protected]

                                        Comment

                                        • bringer
                                          i have man boobies
                                          • Jul 2003
                                          • 13082
                                          #11
                                          if you win are drinks on you?
                                          333-765-551

                                            Comment

                                            • TMM_John
                                              Confirmed User
                                              • May 2004
                                              • 6665
                                              #12
                                              Originally posted by Meta Ridley
                                              100 chances at 1 in 47 million is a different thing than 1 in 470,000

                                              Maybe you need special school
                                              Actually no, they're the same thing.

                                              Maybe you skipped basic algebra?


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                                                Comment

                                                • rhizome
                                                  Confirmed User
                                                  • Jan 2001
                                                  • 788
                                                  #13
                                                  Originally posted by Meta Ridley
                                                  100 chances at 1 in 47 million is a different thing than 1 in 470,000

                                                  Maybe you need special school
                                                  So I suppose if a sponsor converts at 1:470 and you send 470 hits, the chances of you getting a sale is still 1 in 470?

                                                    Comment

                                                    • emthree
                                                      Dialer Kingpin
                                                      • Jun 2003
                                                      • 10816
                                                      #14
                                                      You still buying tickets? I'll add $10 to the pool

                                                      • Sell Patches & Pills •

                                                        Comment

                                                        • Hunter_ST
                                                          Confirmed User
                                                          • Feb 2003
                                                          • 763
                                                          #15
                                                          Jesus... your ODDS of winning hardly change.

                                                          You get a couple extra CHANCES of winning at the SAME shitty odds... but still someone has to win at some point.

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                                                            • Meta Ridley
                                                              Confirmed User
                                                              • Sep 2003
                                                              • 3433
                                                              #16
                                                              Originally posted by Hunter_ST
                                                              Jesus... your ODDS of winning hardly change.

                                                              You get a couple extra CHANCES of winning at the SAME shitty odds... but still someone has to win at some point.

                                                              Thats what Im saying.

                                                              Its not a raffle of a certian amount of tickes with one gaurenteed winner.


                                                              Apparently people dont understand that.
                                                              [email protected]

                                                                Comment

                                                                • rhizome
                                                                  Confirmed User
                                                                  • Jan 2001
                                                                  • 788
                                                                  #17
                                                                  Originally posted by Meta Ridley
                                                                  Its not a raffle of a certian amount of tickes with one gaurenteed winner.
                                                                  There's a finite number of combinations (47 million) with one combination being guaranteed to win. So if you bought 47 million tickets (all combinations possible), are you saying your chances of winning are still 1 in 47 million?

                                                                    Comment

                                                                    • Meta Ridley
                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                      • Sep 2003
                                                                      • 3433
                                                                      #18
                                                                      Originally posted by rhizome
                                                                      There's a finite number of combinations (47 million) with one combination being guaranteed to win. So if you bought 47 million tickets (all combinations possible), are you saying your chances of winning are still 1 in 47 million?


                                                                      Not at all, you would in fact be gaurenteed to win. And with a jackpot of $121 million , it would be a good investment.

                                                                      But are you saying buying 100 tickets would give you gaurenteed odds of 1 in 470,000 at the same jackpot?

                                                                      Well if nothing else at least the thread got bumped for him.
                                                                      Last edited by Meta Ridley; 06-16-2004, 07:16 PM.
                                                                      [email protected]

                                                                        Comment

                                                                        • arial
                                                                          Confirmed User
                                                                          • Jul 2002
                                                                          • 4012
                                                                          #19
                                                                          I got a few tickets for the hell of it.

                                                                            Comment

                                                                            • rhizome
                                                                              Confirmed User
                                                                              • Jan 2001
                                                                              • 788
                                                                              #20
                                                                              Originally posted by Meta Ridley
                                                                              But are you saying buying 100 tickets would give you gaurenteed odds of 1 in 470,000 at the same jackpot?
                                                                              Yes, it's the same math. Just imagine you had to pick one number from 1 to 10. Your chances of winning are 1 in 10 but if you buy 5 tickets, you cover 5 of the possible 10 numbers so the odds drop to 1 in 2. Pretty basic stuff.

                                                                                Comment

                                                                                • emthree
                                                                                  Dialer Kingpin
                                                                                  • Jun 2003
                                                                                  • 10816
                                                                                  #21
                                                                                  ODDs were made to keep a brotha down
                                                                                  If some other fucker can do it, then anyone can

                                                                                  • Sell Patches & Pills •

                                                                                    Comment

                                                                                    • Lane
                                                                                      Will code for food...
                                                                                      • Apr 2001
                                                                                      • 8496
                                                                                      #22
                                                                                      Originally posted by Meta Ridley
                                                                                      100 chances at 1 in 47 million is a different thing than 1 in 470,000

                                                                                      Maybe you need special school
                                                                                      Wrong.

                                                                                      If odds are 1 in 47 million per ticket,
                                                                                      with 100 different tickets you have 1 in 470,000 chance.

                                                                                      very easy to prove.
                                                                                      you buy a block of 100 tickets. there are 470,000 different 100 combination blocks, totaling 47 million combinations. Each block of 100 has 1 in 470,000 chance to hit.

                                                                                      now another thing to worry about,
                                                                                      it's very likely there will be more than one winner, since more people play when the prize gets big. even if you bought all possible combinations, it's very easy to lose money, especially factoring in the taxes.

                                                                                        Comment

                                                                                        • robfantasy
                                                                                          Confirmed User
                                                                                          • Jun 2002
                                                                                          • 6445
                                                                                          #23
                                                                                          ya when its over 100 million i play $1..

                                                                                          if you play your chances are 1: 135 million

                                                                                          if you dont your chances are 0: 135 million
                                                                                          Looking to speak w/ high volume nutra CPA affiliates or networks... msg me

                                                                                            Comment

                                                                                            • BadBrad
                                                                                              Confirmed User
                                                                                              • Feb 2004
                                                                                              • 618
                                                                                              #24
                                                                                              Originally posted by Lane
                                                                                              Wrong.

                                                                                              If odds are 1 in 47 million per ticket,
                                                                                              with 100 different tickets you have 1 in 470,000 chance.

                                                                                              very easy to prove.
                                                                                              you buy a block of 100 tickets. there are 470,000 different 100 combination blocks, totaling 47 million combinations. Each block of 100 has 1 in 470,000 chance to hit.

                                                                                              now another thing to worry about,
                                                                                              it's very likely there will be more than one winner, since more people play when the prize gets big. even if you bought all possible combinations, it's very easy to lose money, especially factoring in the taxes.
                                                                                              Umm. Wouldn't this change the odds to 1 in 46,999,900?
                                                                                              Your sig chose me!

                                                                                                Comment

                                                                                                • BigFish
                                                                                                  Confirmed User
                                                                                                  • Jan 2003
                                                                                                  • 1159
                                                                                                  #25
                                                                                                  Originally posted by BadBrad
                                                                                                  Umm. Wouldn't this change the odds to 1 in 46,999,900?
                                                                                                  you're kidding right? did some of you drop out at the 6th grade or something??

                                                                                                    Comment

                                                                                                    • Kevin2
                                                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                                                      • May 2003
                                                                                                      • 1429
                                                                                                      #26
                                                                                                      Count me in Ray Nothing ventured nothing gained

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                                                                                                        • raymor
                                                                                                          Confirmed User
                                                                                                          • Oct 2002
                                                                                                          • 3745
                                                                                                          #27
                                                                                                          Because of the possibility of duplicate tickets,
                                                                                                          in your own 100 or splitting a winning combination
                                                                                                          with someone else, the odds aren't exactly 1:470,000,
                                                                                                          but they are pretty damn close. The algorithm to
                                                                                                          compute the exact odds has puzzled many a
                                                                                                          mathematician and statistician whom I have posed
                                                                                                          the problem to. One time me and a guy with a
                                                                                                          degree in probablity and statistics met to ponder
                                                                                                          that question for about an hour a day for a week.
                                                                                                          Then it hit me - you simply have to compute the
                                                                                                          odds that ALL of your tickets will lose, then take
                                                                                                          the reciprocal. So the actual odds are:
                                                                                                          1 - ( (46,99999 / 47,000,00) * (46,99999 / 47,000,00) * (46,99999 / 47,000,00) * (46,99999 / 47,000,00) * (46,99999 / 47,000,00) ... )
                                                                                                          with 100 repetitions, AKA:
                                                                                                          1 - ( (46,99999 / 47,000,00) exp100)

                                                                                                          Note that other relevant factors include the several thousand
                                                                                                          dollar prize for getting 5 of the 6 numbers and the smaller
                                                                                                          prizes, the taxes (about 50%), and the fact that the $120,000,000
                                                                                                          is actually an annuity that pays $120mil over 30 years, which
                                                                                                          reduces it's value by another 50%.

                                                                                                          Yes, I'm a poker player. The reason I've bought lottery tickets
                                                                                                          on maybe 5 occcasions in my whole life is because these
                                                                                                          are not good odds. Hell, though, with the jackpot at $120mil
                                                                                                          the odds of winning "12 million" in a pool are exciting enough
                                                                                                          to drop 10 bucks on.
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                                                                                                            • SmokeyTheBear
                                                                                                              ►SouthOfHeaven
                                                                                                              • Jun 2004
                                                                                                              • 28609
                                                                                                              #28
                                                                                                              This reminds me of an old man in texas who sold his house and emptied his bank account trying to win the lottery. he had the same sort of plan. He had enough money to make his odds 1:3 , the only problem was he ran every lotto store in town out of lottery printer paper. so he only ended up getting a few hundred thousand tickets printed...



                                                                                                              And yes he lost
                                                                                                              hatisblack at yahoo.com

                                                                                                                Comment

                                                                                                                • buddyjuf
                                                                                                                  #29
                                                                                                                  Originally posted by SmokeyTheBear
                                                                                                                  This reminds me of an old man in texas who sold his house and emptied his bank account trying to win the lottery. he had the same sort of plan. He had enough money to make his odds 1:3 , the only problem was he ran every lotto store in town out of lottery printer paper. so he only ended up getting a few hundred thousand tickets printed...



                                                                                                                  And yes he lost
                                                                                                                  wow, nice story!

                                                                                                                    Comment

                                                                                                                    • woj
                                                                                                                      <&(©¿©)&>
                                                                                                                      • Jul 2002
                                                                                                                      • 47880
                                                                                                                      #30
                                                                                                                      If you have some money burn, better buy 10k+ shares of some dirt cheap penny stock... (at 1 cent each for example, that's $100)

                                                                                                                      Your chances of cashing in on that are probably 10x greater than by buying lottery tickets....
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                                                                                                                        • CamChicks
                                                                                                                          Confirmed User
                                                                                                                          • Sep 2003
                                                                                                                          • 1552
                                                                                                                          #31
                                                                                                                          "The lottery is a tax on people who are bad at math"

                                                                                                                          camchicks.com

                                                                                                                            Comment

                                                                                                                            • Jakke PNG
                                                                                                                              ex-TeenGodFather
                                                                                                                              • Nov 2001
                                                                                                                              • 20306
                                                                                                                              #32
                                                                                                                              Originally posted by raymor
                                                                                                                              Ilet me know if you want me to pick 10 tickets for you.
                                                                                                                              Yeah.. if you pick some for me..

                                                                                                                              a) I don't know what the winning numbers are
                                                                                                                              b) If *my* ticket wins, you're gonna send me the money, right?
                                                                                                                              c) The odds are kinda crappy
                                                                                                                              ..and I'm off.

                                                                                                                                Comment

                                                                                                                                • strobi
                                                                                                                                  Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                  • Nov 2002
                                                                                                                                  • 7383
                                                                                                                                  #33
                                                                                                                                  Originally posted by Meta Ridley
                                                                                                                                  100 chances at 1 in 47 million is a different thing than 1 in 470,000

                                                                                                                                  Maybe you need special school
                                                                                                                                  correct. The lottery thrives on the fact that people think they can increase their chance to win by 10fold if they buy 10 tickets

                                                                                                                                    Comment

                                                                                                                                    • Ar3s
                                                                                                                                      So Fucking Banned
                                                                                                                                      • Feb 2004
                                                                                                                                      • 4307
                                                                                                                                      #34
                                                                                                                                      Originally posted by Meta Ridley
                                                                                                                                      Buying 100 tickets does NOT change your odds to 1 in 470,000.
                                                                                                                                      agree

                                                                                                                                        Comment

                                                                                                                                        • woj
                                                                                                                                          <&(©¿©)&>
                                                                                                                                          • Jul 2002
                                                                                                                                          • 47880
                                                                                                                                          #35
                                                                                                                                          wtf? Probably 10 people in this thread said that buying 10 tickets doesn't increase your chances by 10... Is it late and you guys are just tired?

                                                                                                                                          How can it not? Lets say we are playing guess a number from 1 to 100...

                                                                                                                                          if you take 1 guess, your chances are 1 in 100...

                                                                                                                                          if you take 100 guesses (assuming you are not a retard and guess each time differently)... than you are guaranteed to guess the right number 100% of the time...

                                                                                                                                          if you guess 50 times, your chances are 50%...

                                                                                                                                          Same with lottery, there are lets say 100 million combinations... if you "guess" 100 times, you chances become in 1 in million. And the fact that 10 other people may have chosen the same numbers are completely irrevelant -> it only effects how much you win, not your chances of wining...
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