000
WTNT31 KNHC 021436
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU SEP 02 2004
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES HEADING FOR FLORIDA...HURRICANE
WARNINGS ISSUED...
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER
BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM
SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALL THE BAHAMAS.
AT 11 AM AST...AST THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...90
KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR...AND 450 MILES... 725 KM...EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER FLORIDA EAST COAST.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FRANCES REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM. SAN SALVADOR IN THE BAHAMAS IS CURRENTLY
REPORTING 63 MPH...102 KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE EYE OF FRANCES ON THE WEST SIDE OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND...AND
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 20 INCHES...
ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.
SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...23.4 N... 73.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.
That is one tight eye. I'm extremely thankful we're likely to be spared this one. Then again if it gets in the gulf it could go back and forth like Elena did. Good luck all you guys in the path
Originally posted by mardigras That is one tight eye. I'm extremely thankful we're likely to be spared this one. Then again if it gets in the gulf it could go back and forth like Elena did. Good luck all you guys in the path
I am hoping it doesn't pull an Andrew, and go through Fla, and straight for us! This map was not like this last night. Today, it has 2 predictions of it going straight through.
I am keeping everyone in that area in my thoughts. I used to live in a condo smack dab on the beach in Daytona. Went through Hurricane Irene which was tiny compared to this one but, still caused some damage. I am so glad I now live in the desert.
If anyone wants to board up their homes and fly out to Phoenix, we have some room at our place and we are guaranteed hurricane free :-)
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Originally posted by jennym I am hoping it doesn't pull an Andrew, and go through Fla, and straight for us! This map was not like this last night. Today, it has 2 predictions of it going straight through.
experts predict that Frances threatened to be a much more dangerous storm than Charley, another Category 4 hurricane that slammed Florida's opposite coast August 13 killing 25 people.
"This is a much bigger storm than Charley was, maybe two to three times the size," There'll be a large area of damage when this comes ashore."
I have a couple of really good friends down in the Miami area... I'll be thinking about everyone... I heard it was gonna gain velocity the closer it gets to FL...
Originally posted by oldnewbie Actually, that's not Frances. That's Hurricane Howard. What you are seeing is the Pacific Ocean, Mexico, and the Baha Peninsula.
It may have moved down to a category 3, but that doesn't mean much. When it hits the warm waters in the gulf stream it is very likely it will gain more power.
I must say, i am scare of it and i am in Quebec city, Canada...so i don't envy any floridians right now, and you have all my sympathy towards what you gonna endure this week end.
I think we are in a full El Nino year, so i would predict that's the beginning... I am pretty sure we gonna have a lot of ice this winter in Canada or some extreme, extreme cold.
A question tho: Why the houses in Florida doesn't have a special construction code to take account of high winds ? In our day and age, surely we can build round or underground houses that would have less grip to high winds...Just something i have been asking myself...I know the cost would be higher, but in the long run, maybe not.
"Those who dream by day are cognizant of many things which escape those who only dream by night" -E A. Poe
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