Sorry guys Kerry will lose.

50 Bad Presidents

Ohh another great political debate on GFY goes from sensical thinking, to mindnumbing ramblings from foreigners worried about their exchange rate to losers who have never voted or never will........Carry on

Nah .. the foreigners don't worry about the dollar... they're afraid of the new hitler

thats all their worried about. We all know this.

why? did they lose the welcome mat they used last time?

unless either candidate makes a major gaff, the race is close enough that it will be decided in the last 10-14 days prior to the election, and is dependent on these factors:

1. what's happening in iraq
2. US gas prices
3. stock market
4. unemployment figures
5. economic leading indicators
6. terrorist activities

There's one group that is hoping for a Kerry win.


got bombs or planes or trucks

if nothing earth shattering happens, looks to me like Bush will win a close election again. The Democrats had a chance but so far i'm not impressed with Kerry as a candidate, another in a long line of Democratic dullards. Kerry will have to wallop Bush in the debates which is unlikely, the debates are so restrictive that a moron like Bush can survive against a more intelligent foe.

as pornographers a 2nd term of Bush should scare you - these 2257 regs weren't amended for no reason, i believe they will be enforced in Bush's 2nd term. also believe less than 5% of webmasters will be compliant. i know how much content is out there from brokers and out of biz content providers who never provided model ID's - unless people are dumping content they are playing with fire.

I see a lot of hate towards the president, but let me give some actual numbers that will give a little better idea of where we stand, regardless of your candidate.


Polls are weird, hard to trust, but there are a few details and historic numbers that can identify trends.

Job approval rating seems to be the most precise way of detecting in advance the chances of a relection of an incumbent.



President Bush: Right now: around 51%

President Reagan in 1984: around 57%

President Clinton in 1996: around 54%



Also, polls always give about a 10% favor to the democrat candidate. The reason is that polling is done by phone and democratic numbers are often predominatly inner city.

This creates an error because inner city people trend to be more of a "likely" voter on the phone, but a smaller chance to wait in line to pull the lever on election day.

During the last election, a poller weighted this in his poll and skewed the 10% away from the democrats (somehow) and he almost hit the nail on the head with his final predictions.

Most closing polls in 2000 had Gore leading by 10%.


What does this mean? It means that if the vote happened today it would probably be somewhere between 55-57% Bush and somewhere around 40% Kerry.

yep bush will win. I dont like it at all because im a foreigner worried about the euro-dollar ratio.

Umm If you look at the polls Kerry is Ahead. The only way Bush will win is if he Cheats AGAIN. Gore won last time. BUSH cheated, and look what happened to our country. Its always great to have a AWOL crack addict as president