Anyone else watching this crisis?
Now they are reporting more human cases in thailand.
"In a pandemic, 30% to 40% of the population likely would be infected, and as many as one-third could die. That was the fatality rate on the H5N1 strain when it emerged in Hong Kong in 1997, killing six of the 18 people who fell ill."
So this means that around 600 million people could die if the virus mutates..
Bird virus could mutate into pandemic flu, scientists warn
http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/...flu-usat_x.htm
ANN ARBOR, Mich. ? As health officials around the world keep a watchful eye on reports of a handful of SARS cases in China, a potentially more ominous threat could be emerging in Vietnam.
Scientists attending an international symposium on SARS expressed growing concern Tuesday about an avian influenza virus that has killed at least five people in Vietnam. They fear that it could mutate into a form of flu that would be deadly to humans and highly contagious, causing a pandemic.
"Everyone is looking at this avian influenza and worrying it is 'the P word,' " said Stephen Ostroff of the National Center for Infectious Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The CDC sent six scientists this week to Vietnam to help investigate the outbreak, and the World Health Organization announced it is trying to quickly produce a vaccine to protect humans. Wire reports say authorities in Vietnam are killing chickens to halt the disease.
Analysis of samples of the virus, called A(H5N1), shows it has not yet developed the ability to spread from one person to another. That can happen if a bird flu virus and a human flu virus meet in an environment in which they can swap genes, resulting in a virus that is new to humans, as the H5N1 virus is, and is as easily passed from person to person as the flu.
About 18 illnesses and deaths, all but two of them children, are being investigated in Vietnam, Ostroff said. "We could be looking at the tip of the iceberg."
Of special concern is that human flu is circulating in Vietnam now, Ostroff said, so there are opportunities for human and avian flu viruses to commingle. In addition, this is the season of Tet, the Lunar New Year, which has brought thousands of tourists into the country, where they could potentially be exposed.
"One of the lessons from SARS is that the virus can be all over the world in two weeks," said Arnold Monto, director of the University of Michigan Bioterrorism Preparedness Initiative. But he says he is more concerned about a flu pandemic because experience shows that with SARS "you can put the genie back in the bottle."
Flu is far more contagious and hard to contain. In a pandemic, 30% to 40% of the population likely would be infected, and as many as one-third could die. That was the fatality rate on the H5N1 strain when it emerged in Hong Kong in 1997, killing six of the 18 people who fell ill.
That outbreak was contained through a massive public health effort; all the poultry in Hong Kong were slaughtered in three days, an action that many scientists believe averted a pandemic. The same virus struck again in Hong Kong in February 2003, killing one person.
WHO has warned that the H5N1 strain "has properties that make it a potential risk to human health of considerable significance."
It mutates quickly and tends to pick up genes from flu viruses that affect other species. The virus started in geese, moved to chickens and then to ducks and wild birds. Outbreaks have killed millions of birds in Japan, Korea and Vietnam.
This "simultaneous occurrence of large and highly fatal outbreaks of H5N1 in birds is unprecedented," WHO says.
"I believe the avian flu will develop the ability to transmit from human to human," said Zonghan Zhu of Beijing Municipal Central Laboratory of Infections and Immunity. If so, public health systems may not be ready.
Progress has been made since the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome in late 2002, experts say, but no public health system is prepared to manage the flood of sick and frightened people a pandemic could create.
Federal health agencies recognize the potential of pandemic flu as a major threat, Monto said, but they have not moved quickly to try to solve problems inherent in making a vaccine or to stockpile antiviral medications. Public health experts "are further along," he said, "but we need more of a sense of urgency."
Now they are reporting more human cases in thailand.
"In a pandemic, 30% to 40% of the population likely would be infected, and as many as one-third could die. That was the fatality rate on the H5N1 strain when it emerged in Hong Kong in 1997, killing six of the 18 people who fell ill."
So this means that around 600 million people could die if the virus mutates..
Bird virus could mutate into pandemic flu, scientists warn
http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/...flu-usat_x.htm
ANN ARBOR, Mich. ? As health officials around the world keep a watchful eye on reports of a handful of SARS cases in China, a potentially more ominous threat could be emerging in Vietnam.
Scientists attending an international symposium on SARS expressed growing concern Tuesday about an avian influenza virus that has killed at least five people in Vietnam. They fear that it could mutate into a form of flu that would be deadly to humans and highly contagious, causing a pandemic.
"Everyone is looking at this avian influenza and worrying it is 'the P word,' " said Stephen Ostroff of the National Center for Infectious Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The CDC sent six scientists this week to Vietnam to help investigate the outbreak, and the World Health Organization announced it is trying to quickly produce a vaccine to protect humans. Wire reports say authorities in Vietnam are killing chickens to halt the disease.
Analysis of samples of the virus, called A(H5N1), shows it has not yet developed the ability to spread from one person to another. That can happen if a bird flu virus and a human flu virus meet in an environment in which they can swap genes, resulting in a virus that is new to humans, as the H5N1 virus is, and is as easily passed from person to person as the flu.
About 18 illnesses and deaths, all but two of them children, are being investigated in Vietnam, Ostroff said. "We could be looking at the tip of the iceberg."
Of special concern is that human flu is circulating in Vietnam now, Ostroff said, so there are opportunities for human and avian flu viruses to commingle. In addition, this is the season of Tet, the Lunar New Year, which has brought thousands of tourists into the country, where they could potentially be exposed.
"One of the lessons from SARS is that the virus can be all over the world in two weeks," said Arnold Monto, director of the University of Michigan Bioterrorism Preparedness Initiative. But he says he is more concerned about a flu pandemic because experience shows that with SARS "you can put the genie back in the bottle."
Flu is far more contagious and hard to contain. In a pandemic, 30% to 40% of the population likely would be infected, and as many as one-third could die. That was the fatality rate on the H5N1 strain when it emerged in Hong Kong in 1997, killing six of the 18 people who fell ill.
That outbreak was contained through a massive public health effort; all the poultry in Hong Kong were slaughtered in three days, an action that many scientists believe averted a pandemic. The same virus struck again in Hong Kong in February 2003, killing one person.
WHO has warned that the H5N1 strain "has properties that make it a potential risk to human health of considerable significance."
It mutates quickly and tends to pick up genes from flu viruses that affect other species. The virus started in geese, moved to chickens and then to ducks and wild birds. Outbreaks have killed millions of birds in Japan, Korea and Vietnam.
This "simultaneous occurrence of large and highly fatal outbreaks of H5N1 in birds is unprecedented," WHO says.
"I believe the avian flu will develop the ability to transmit from human to human," said Zonghan Zhu of Beijing Municipal Central Laboratory of Infections and Immunity. If so, public health systems may not be ready.
Progress has been made since the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome in late 2002, experts say, but no public health system is prepared to manage the flood of sick and frightened people a pandemic could create.
Federal health agencies recognize the potential of pandemic flu as a major threat, Monto said, but they have not moved quickly to try to solve problems inherent in making a vaccine or to stockpile antiviral medications. Public health experts "are further along," he said, "but we need more of a sense of urgency."
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