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Go with Flash.
We just conducted this research of online stats for 2004, and the results were the following:
Flash: 96% of surfers can view Flash with a growing number every new browser version.
hahahahahahahahahaha: 90-95% of surfers support it or haven't disabled it. Of this number, about 85% of those who disable it are webmasters, techies. Not your average surfer.
The best solution is to detect and then redirect to the appropriate version, however in the case of just choosing one we say go with Flash.
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