I don't believe it..
because: there are more army/navy/airforce/marines/reserves/etc enlistment commercials on TV than ever before. It seems like every break now. You just don't spend that much money and push that hard if you already have more people than you need.
or perhaps those "annual targets" were set before this Iraq disaster.
(but that doesn't mean there will be a draft... there won't.. it would be political suicide.)