US economy set to explode?

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  • ADL Colin
    Too lazy to set a custom title
    • Feb 2001
    • 11929
    #1

    US economy set to explode?

    This years ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) weekly index showed its fastest growth in 20 years.

    "It is unambiguous the economy is going to recover" said ECRI director Lakshman Achuthan.

    US economy set to roar?


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    • MrPopup
      Confirmed User
      • Aug 2002
      • 3783
      #2
      Find out who runs that Think Tank/special interest group and you'll have all the answers you need.
      <table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="3" border="1" bgcolor="#008000"><tr><td><font size=3>Gone</font></td></tr></table>

        Comment

        • Danny_C
          Confirmed User
          • Feb 2002
          • 2160
          #3
          I'm no expert on economics, but I can't help but be skeptical at the moment.

            Comment

            • directfiesta
              Too lazy to set a custom title
              • Oct 2002
              • 30200
              #4
              Heard there will be a "boom" in luxury units....




              I know that Asspimple is stoopid ... As he says, it is a FACT !

              But I can't figure out how he can breathe or type , at the same time ....

                Comment

                • loverboy
                  When it rains, it pours
                  • May 2003
                  • 20609
                  #5
                  Originally posted by directfiesta
                  Heard there will be a "boom" in luxury units....

                    Comment

                    • Gutterboy
                      So Fucking Banned
                      • Jul 2002
                      • 4751
                      #6
                      The US economy is gonna explode alright..

                        Comment

                        • ADL Colin
                          Too lazy to set a custom title
                          • Feb 2001
                          • 11929
                          #7
                          Originally posted by MrPopup
                          Find out who runs that Think Tank/special interest group and you'll have all the answers you need.
                          The ECRI WLI is an index designed in the mid 1960's. It has an excellent record of forecasting economic turnarounds both locally and abroad. There areother leading economic indicator indexes showing strong signs too. The Conference Board's "Index of Leading Economic Indicators" is another.

                          Other than your personal hopes and wishes, why would you expect anything different? The last US recession ended almost two years ago now (November, 2001). I believe it was the weakest recession on record. 2002 was about an average year both for GDP growth (>3%) and unemployment (long term average is 6%).

                          A very weak recession followed by an average year and then a surge in the leading economic indicators as the economy gets rolling again. Pretty normal stuff.


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                            • Buff
                              GFY Assassin
                              • May 2003
                              • 2993
                              #8
                              Originally posted by Colin


                              The ECRI WLI is an index designed in the mid 1960's. It has an excellent record of forecasting economic turnarounds both locally and abroad. There areother leading economic indicator indexes showing strong signs too. The Conference Board's "Index of Leading Economic Indicators" is another.

                              Other than your personal hopes and wishes, why would you expect anything different? The last US recession ended almost two years ago now (November, 2001). I believe it was the weakest recession on record. 2002 was about an average year both for GDP growth (>3%) and unemployment (long term average is 6%).

                              A very weak recession followed by an average year and then a surge in the leading economic indicators as the economy gets rolling again. Pretty normal stuff.
                              Those numbers don't mean dick, Colin. Any economic expansion we have right now is nothing more than another false boom provided to us courtesy of the Fed's monetary expansion. You can't create wealth by creating money out of thin air and pumping it into the economy.

                              In the short run, you'll get a false boom. Right after that, you'll get a nice bust. We haven't even bled all the bad money out of the economy from the 95-99 expansion we had.

                              To give you an idea of what I'm talking about, go to: this link, and look at the money stock since 1995.

                              Here's the graph:



                              That's a recipe for disaster.

                                Comment

                                • Theo
                                  HAL 9000
                                  • May 2001
                                  • 34515
                                  #9
                                  almost got an erection

                                  i read USA to explode

                                    Comment

                                    • chowda
                                      Confirmed User
                                      • Jun 2003
                                      • 9527
                                      #10
                                      even if it does, any terrorist activities will send ur markets down.
                                      Someone finds you...
                                      2007

                                      PS: Nationalnet is the best host I've ever had. And i tried alot of them.

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                                        • DTK
                                          Confirmed User
                                          • Feb 2002
                                          • 4546
                                          #11
                                          Originally posted by Colin
                                          This years ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) weekly index showed its fastest growth in 20 years.

                                          "It is unambiguous the economy is going to recover" said ECRI director Lakshman Achuthan.

                                          US economy set to roar?
                                          ECRI Website

                                          I actually spoke with Lakshman about the time they were 'calling' the 2001 recession. Everyone else was calling for continued growth or 'recession lite'.

                                          Things are definitely looking good for 6 months or so down the road.
                                          Arguing whether the Democratic or Republican party is better is like debating which steaming pile of shit is slightly less stinky.

                                            Comment

                                            • ADL Colin
                                              Too lazy to set a custom title
                                              • Feb 2001
                                              • 11929
                                              #12
                                              Originally posted by Buff


                                              Those numbers don't mean dick, Colin. Any economic expansion we have right now is nothing more than another false boom provided to us courtesy of the Fed's monetary expansion. You can't create wealth by creating money out of thin air and pumping it into the economy.

                                              In the short run, you'll get a false boom. Right after that, you'll get a nice bust. We haven't even bled all the bad money out of the economy from the 95-99 expansion we had.

                                              To give you an idea of what I'm talking about, go to: this link, and look at the money stock since 1995.

                                              Here's the graph:



                                              That's a recipe for disaster.
                                              What you're saying is not born out by the numbers you showed me. In fact, just the opposite.

                                              Consider the July 1990-March 1991 contraction. The annual change in MZM was ACCELERATING throughout the entire recession and continued to increase until 1994 as the economy was gaining steam.

                                              Year MZM
                                              1990 +3.7%
                                              1991 +6%
                                              1992 +10.5%
                                              1993 +11.2%

                                              For that matter, the MZM increased 15% during the 1981/1982 recession, a recession that lasted 16 months. In the 16 months after the recession the MZM exploded another 25% as the recovery was under way.


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                                                • eatapeach
                                                  Confirmed User
                                                  • Dec 2001
                                                  • 493
                                                  #13
                                                  A very weak recession followed by an average year and then a surge in the leading economic indicators as the economy gets rolling again. Pretty normal stuff.
                                                  i hope you're right. that would be great.

                                                  however, i have seen plenty of other analysis that seems to indicate that we're just at the beginning of some nasty economic shit coming down the road.

                                                  i'm hoping for the best and planning for the worst.

                                                  take it easy,
                                                  eatapeach

                                                    Comment

                                                    • ADL Colin
                                                      Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                      • Feb 2001
                                                      • 11929
                                                      #14
                                                      Originally posted by eatapeach


                                                      i hope you're right. that would be great.

                                                      however, i have seen plenty of other analysis that seems to indicate that we're just at the beginning of some nasty economic shit coming down the road.

                                                      i'm hoping for the best and planning for the worst.

                                                      take it easy,
                                                      eatapeach
                                                      Check out the supermarket tabloids. The next depression is always right around the corner. Every decade has it's share of sensationalistic books with titles like"How to Survive the Coming Bad Times" and "The Coming Economic Earthquake".

                                                      Recessions were much more frequent and much deeper in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. The late 20th century has been rather smooth.


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                                                        • skrowyenom
                                                          Registered User
                                                          • Feb 2003
                                                          • 489
                                                          #15

                                                            Comment

                                                            • chowda
                                                              Confirmed User
                                                              • Jun 2003
                                                              • 9527
                                                              #16
                                                              more informed ppl will mean more informed decisions


                                                              hahahahahahahah
                                                              Someone finds you...
                                                              2007

                                                              PS: Nationalnet is the best host I've ever had. And i tried alot of them.

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                                                                • eatapeach
                                                                  Confirmed User
                                                                  • Dec 2001
                                                                  • 493
                                                                  #17
                                                                  Check out the supermarket tabloids. The next depression is always right around the corner. Every decade has it's share of sensationalistic books with titles like"How to Survive the Coming Bad Times" and "The Coming Economic Earthquake".
                                                                  that's not nice, colin. i'd never presume the depth of your knowledge was from tabloids, why do that to me?

                                                                  anyway, that being said, a good source of financial information that isn't being hyped like cable financial shows or some guy trying to sell you stocks is http://www.financialsense.com/index.htm

                                                                    Comment

                                                                    • ADL Colin
                                                                      Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                      • Feb 2001
                                                                      • 11929
                                                                      #18
                                                                      Originally posted by eatapeach


                                                                      that's not nice, colin. i'd never presume the depth of your knowledge was from tabloids, why do that to me?

                                                                      HaHa. ;-) No, I wasn't saying that at all. I apologize if I gave that impression. I'm just saying that there is a general fear people seem to have about the economy in all times.


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                                                                        • ADL Colin
                                                                          Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                          • Feb 2001
                                                                          • 11929
                                                                          #19
                                                                          Originally posted by Colin


                                                                          HaHa. ;-) No, I wasn't saying that at all. I apologize if I gave that impression. I'm just saying that there is a general fear people seem to have about the economy in all times.
                                                                          Just consider last year. It was a very average sort of year. Average GDP growth, average unemployment. Yet some people made it sound like the end of the world was coming. Even now, some people think there is a US recession and yet there hasn't been since late 2001.


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                                                                            • ADL Colin
                                                                              Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                              • Feb 2001
                                                                              • 11929
                                                                              #20
                                                                              Originally posted by Colin


                                                                              Consider the July 1990-March 1991 contraction. The annual change in MZM was ACCELERATING throughout the entire recession and continued to increase until 1994 as the economy was gaining steam.
                                                                              Be more accurate to say it was accelerating coming out of the recession.


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                                                                                • iroc409
                                                                                  Confirmed User
                                                                                  • Jan 2003
                                                                                  • 4728
                                                                                  #21
                                                                                  i keep waiting for the end of the united states, but it never comes. every year it's the end, everyone says the country will implode and become a 3rd world state, and it never happens. probably has something to do with the stubborn nature of americans to keep on moving. every time i talk to someone supposedly in the financial know that the US is going to crash soon. i've been waiting for this crash for years now.

                                                                                  i've also been waiting for that big earthquake that's going to happen. i think it was supposed to happen a few years back, never did. it was supposed to turn western nebraska into beachfront property. and my grandparents have the earthquake insurance to prevent a loss.
                                                                                  <a href="http://www.iroc409.com/"><img src="http://www.iroc409.com/adv/120x60.gif" border=0></a>


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                                                                                    • Buff
                                                                                      GFY Assassin
                                                                                      • May 2003
                                                                                      • 2993
                                                                                      #22
                                                                                      Colin, it takes time for the effects of monetary policy to take effect.

                                                                                      Wait and see what happens.

                                                                                      The value of our money is gonna plummet, interest rates are gonna skyrocket, regardless of what the fed does. Unemployment is gonna spike up.

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                                                                                        • theking
                                                                                          Nice Kitty
                                                                                          • Sep 2002
                                                                                          • 21053
                                                                                          #23
                                                                                          When was the last time the US economy had zero, or near zero, growth???
                                                                                          When you're running down my country hoss...you're walking on the fighting side of me!

                                                                                          FOR THE LYING LOWLIFE POSTING AS PATHFINDER...http://gfy.com/fucking-around-and-pr...athfinder.html

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                                                                                            • wargames
                                                                                              Kliris
                                                                                              • May 2003
                                                                                              • 10423
                                                                                              #24
                                                                                              Originally posted by Gutterboy
                                                                                              The US economy is gonna explode alright..
                                                                                              ICQ 212-115-582
                                                                                              Email Steve at Vas Media Group .com

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                                                                                                • wimpy
                                                                                                  Confirmed User
                                                                                                  • Jan 2003
                                                                                                  • 607
                                                                                                  #25
                                                                                                  This is not an ordinary recession. I know a welder who has been unemployed for over a year. He is not counted in the stats, like other long term unemployed.

                                                                                                  A programmer I laid off 2 years ago is still unemployed. He does small contract jobs for a fraction of his old pay, I don't consider that "employed."

                                                                                                  A webmaster I laid off 2 years ago just now is making enough money to pay his bills, but he's still 6 months behind on his mortgage. That's employed, but hurting.

                                                                                                  I think we're seeing a Fed induced economic bubble. The Fed is pumping money into the economy so that the economy will appear to be gaining during the elections. Right after that, if not before, I bet it will all collapse again, because the Fed just doesn't have the muscle to keep it going.
                                                                                                  Fyodor Dostoyevsky wrote: "Every man has reminiscences which he would not tell to everyone but only his friends. He has other matters in his mind which he would not reveal even to his friends, but only to himself, and that in secret. But there are other things which a man is afraid to tell even to himself, and every decent man has a number of such things stored away in his mind."

                                                                                                  icq 8243657

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                                                                                                    • theking
                                                                                                      Nice Kitty
                                                                                                      • Sep 2002
                                                                                                      • 21053
                                                                                                      #26
                                                                                                      Originally posted by wimpy
                                                                                                      This is not an ordinary recession. I know a welder who has been unemployed for over a year. He is not counted in the stats, like other long term unemployed.

                                                                                                      A programmer I laid off 2 years ago is still unemployed. He does small contract jobs for a fraction of his old pay, I don't consider that "employed."

                                                                                                      A webmaster I laid off 2 years ago just now is making enough money to pay his bills, but he's still 6 months behind on his mortgage. That's employed, but hurting.

                                                                                                      I think we're seeing a Fed induced economic bubble. The Fed is pumping money into the economy so that the economy will appear to be gaining during the elections. Right after that, if not before, I bet it will all collapse again, because the Fed just doesn't have the muscle to keep it going.
                                                                                                      It is my understanding that the government considers anyone that is working 20 hours per week as being among the employed...and if this is true...it skews the unemployed figures...in my opinion.
                                                                                                      When you're running down my country hoss...you're walking on the fighting side of me!

                                                                                                      FOR THE LYING LOWLIFE POSTING AS PATHFINDER...http://gfy.com/fucking-around-and-pr...athfinder.html

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                                                                                                        • iroc409
                                                                                                          Confirmed User
                                                                                                          • Jan 2003
                                                                                                          • 4728
                                                                                                          #27
                                                                                                          yeah, the jobs are hard to come by right now. i have a friend of mine that's rather disillusioned pretty bad. she's going to college, but she thinks because of her degree she's going to get an awesome job and be rich. she's got about a year left, and hasn't even started looking for work. but, daddy pays for everything, and has agreed to get her an apartment in nyc after she graduates. good luck to her, she has no exp. in the real world, and doesn't understand it takes a lot more than a college degree to be successful in life
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                                                                                                            • theking
                                                                                                              Nice Kitty
                                                                                                              • Sep 2002
                                                                                                              • 21053
                                                                                                              #28
                                                                                                              Originally posted by iroc409
                                                                                                              yeah, the jobs are hard to come by right now. i have a friend of mine that's rather disillusioned pretty bad. she's going to college, but she thinks because of her degree she's going to get an awesome job and be rich. she's got about a year left, and hasn't even started looking for work. but, daddy pays for everything, and has agreed to get her an apartment in nyc after she graduates. good luck to her, she has no exp. in the real world, and doesn't understand it takes a lot more than a college degree to be successful in life
                                                                                                              A friend that I made when I was attending college...had a Political Science major. I bumped into him years later and he was an RN...I asked him why he was working as a nurse...he said that he had to go back to college and get a Degree in something that he could earn a living at. Moral of the story...it all depends upon what one gets a Degree in.
                                                                                                              When you're running down my country hoss...you're walking on the fighting side of me!

                                                                                                              FOR THE LYING LOWLIFE POSTING AS PATHFINDER...http://gfy.com/fucking-around-and-pr...athfinder.html

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                                                                                                                • Buff
                                                                                                                  GFY Assassin
                                                                                                                  • May 2003
                                                                                                                  • 2993
                                                                                                                  #29
                                                                                                                  Originally posted by wimpy
                                                                                                                  This is not an ordinary recession. I know a welder who has been unemployed for over a year. He is not counted in the stats, like other long term unemployed.

                                                                                                                  A programmer I laid off 2 years ago is still unemployed. He does small contract jobs for a fraction of his old pay, I don't consider that "employed."

                                                                                                                  A webmaster I laid off 2 years ago just now is making enough money to pay his bills, but he's still 6 months behind on his mortgage. That's employed, but hurting.

                                                                                                                  I think we're seeing a Fed induced economic bubble. The Fed is pumping money into the economy so that the economy will appear to be gaining during the elections. Right after that, if not before, I bet it will all collapse again, because the Fed just doesn't have the muscle to keep it going.
                                                                                                                  Well holy shit, someone else gets it!

                                                                                                                    Comment

                                                                                                                    • ADL Colin
                                                                                                                      Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                                                      • Feb 2001
                                                                                                                      • 11929
                                                                                                                      #30
                                                                                                                      Originally posted by wimpy
                                                                                                                      This is not an ordinary recession.
                                                                                                                      There is no recession. What recession? What are you talking about?


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                                                                                                                        • ADL Colin
                                                                                                                          Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                                                          • Feb 2001
                                                                                                                          • 11929
                                                                                                                          #31
                                                                                                                          Originally posted by wimpy
                                                                                                                          The Fed is pumping money into the economy so that the economy will appear to be gaining during the elections.
                                                                                                                          Why would the FED care about elections? The FED is an independent branch of government. By design it makes it's decisions independently of the executive branch of government.


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                                                                                                                            • angelsofporn
                                                                                                                              Confirmed User
                                                                                                                              • Mar 2002
                                                                                                                              • 3218
                                                                                                                              #32
                                                                                                                              Originally posted by theking
                                                                                                                              When was the last time the US economy had zero, or near zero, growth???
                                                                                                                              well..a recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative gdp growth

                                                                                                                                Comment

                                                                                                                                • Drake
                                                                                                                                  Hello world!
                                                                                                                                  • Mar 2003
                                                                                                                                  • 12508
                                                                                                                                  #33
                                                                                                                                  It's difficult to put any faith into the predictions of an economist, but let's hope this one comes to fruition.

                                                                                                                                    Comment

                                                                                                                                    • theking
                                                                                                                                      Nice Kitty
                                                                                                                                      • Sep 2002
                                                                                                                                      • 21053
                                                                                                                                      #34
                                                                                                                                      Originally posted by angelsofporn

                                                                                                                                      well..a recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative gdp growth
                                                                                                                                      "negative" growth? When was the last time there was "negative" growth...if you know...or someone else knows?
                                                                                                                                      When you're running down my country hoss...you're walking on the fighting side of me!

                                                                                                                                      FOR THE LYING LOWLIFE POSTING AS PATHFINDER...http://gfy.com/fucking-around-and-pr...athfinder.html

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                                                                                                                                        • Ironhorse
                                                                                                                                          Pixel Pusher
                                                                                                                                          • Nov 2002
                                                                                                                                          • 7094
                                                                                                                                          #35
                                                                                                                                          Who cares about the definition. My friends are losing jobs left and right and the 'unofficial' unemployment rate is more like 20% than the 6.x% the 'official' rate.

                                                                                                                                          Unless this trend reverses there will be explosions allright.
                                                                                                                                          [email protected]

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                                                                                                                                            • S.L.L.D
                                                                                                                                              Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                              • Mar 2002
                                                                                                                                              • 119
                                                                                                                                              #36
                                                                                                                                              Originally posted by Colin


                                                                                                                                              There is no recession. What recession? What are you talking about?
                                                                                                                                              why don't you explain this to the 8% unemployed here in Miami?

                                                                                                                                              If this is not a recession -don't care what the books say- it must be an expansion where all jobs go to the Philipines/India and China?

                                                                                                                                                Comment

                                                                                                                                                • ADL Colin
                                                                                                                                                  Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                                                                                  • Feb 2001
                                                                                                                                                  • 11929
                                                                                                                                                  #37
                                                                                                                                                  OK. So if the unemployment rate is 4% - about the best it has ever been - and you know 200 people, you will tell me the story of your 8 unemployed friends. If it is 6%, you'll tell me about your 12 unemployed friends. No matter what, you will be able to story about your handfulof friends that are unemployed. That's the problem with personal stories like this. Everyone always knows someone unemployed. That's why statistics are more important than personal stories.

                                                                                                                                                  I don't know a single unemployed person AND July, 2003 was a record month for Pleasure Labs. There's MY story.

                                                                                                                                                  20%?! Are 20% of the people you know unemployed? I don't know a single unemployed person.


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                                                                                                                                                    • Buff
                                                                                                                                                      GFY Assassin
                                                                                                                                                      • May 2003
                                                                                                                                                      • 2993
                                                                                                                                                      #38
                                                                                                                                                      Originally posted by Colin
                                                                                                                                                      OK. So if the unemployment rate is 4% - about the best it has ever been - and you know 200 people, you will tell me the story of your 8 unemployed friends. If it is 6%, you'll tell me about your 12 unemployed friends. No matter what, you will be able to story about your handfulof friends that are unemployed. That's the problem with personal stories like this. Everyone always knows someone unemployed. That's why statistics are more important than personal stories.

                                                                                                                                                      I don't know a single unemployed person AND July, 2003 was a record month for Pleasure Labs. There's MY story.

                                                                                                                                                      20%?! Are 20% of the people you know unemployed? I don't know a single unemployed person.
                                                                                                                                                      I seriously hope you don't count the 10s of millions of people on the Federal and State and local government payrolls as employed, Colin -- they're glorified welfare recipients.

                                                                                                                                                      The underlying economy is nothing close to what you think it is. There is a disaster looming and nothing short of electing Libertarians to every office is going to help at all.

                                                                                                                                                        Comment

                                                                                                                                                        • reynold
                                                                                                                                                          Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                                                                                          • Oct 2002
                                                                                                                                                          • 51271
                                                                                                                                                          #39
                                                                                                                                                          Figures like these are manipulated

                                                                                                                                                            Comment

                                                                                                                                                            • Centurion
                                                                                                                                                              Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                                              • Dec 2002
                                                                                                                                                              • 6033
                                                                                                                                                              #40
                                                                                                                                                              Originally posted by Colin


                                                                                                                                                              Just consider last year. It was a very average sort of year. Average GDP growth, average unemployment. Yet some people made it sound like the end of the world was coming. Even now, some people think there is a US recession and yet there hasn't been since late 2001.
                                                                                                                                                              We lost a half a million jobs last year.
                                                                                                                                                              Unemployment has surged to it's highest point in almost a decade.
                                                                                                                                                              Interest rates are going backup.
                                                                                                                                                              Consumer confidence is still WAY down (latest poll just released).
                                                                                                                                                              We were supposed to MAKE 10,000 new jobs last month, but instead, lost over 20,000.
                                                                                                                                                              The number of people below the "poverty line" continues to increase at a dramatic pace.
                                                                                                                                                              Many economists are saying we could drop into a "double dip" recession this year.
                                                                                                                                                              Many middle income folks have practically been wiped out of their life savings from the slump in the stock market.
                                                                                                                                                              Our deficit has ballooned to the largest ever!

                                                                                                                                                              And you call this an "average" year? Or that last year was even an "average" year?

                                                                                                                                                              The economy is still in the toliet and there are no consistent credible signs of any turn around in fiscal 2003.

                                                                                                                                                                Comment

                                                                                                                                                                • directfiesta
                                                                                                                                                                  Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                                                                                                  • Oct 2002
                                                                                                                                                                  • 30200
                                                                                                                                                                  #41
                                                                                                                                                                  Originally posted by Centurion


                                                                                                                                                                  We lost a half a million jobs last year.
                                                                                                                                                                  Unemployment has surged to it's highest point in almost a decade.
                                                                                                                                                                  Interest rates are going backup.
                                                                                                                                                                  Consumer confidence is still WAY down (latest poll just released).
                                                                                                                                                                  We were supposed to MAKE 10,000 new jobs last month, but instead, lost over 20,000.
                                                                                                                                                                  The number of people below the "poverty line" continues to increase at a dramatic pace.
                                                                                                                                                                  Many economists are saying we could drop into a "double dip" recession this year.
                                                                                                                                                                  Many middle income folks have practically been wiped out of their life savings from the slump in the stock market.
                                                                                                                                                                  Our deficit has ballooned to the largest ever!

                                                                                                                                                                  And you call this an "average" year? Or that last year was even an "average" year?

                                                                                                                                                                  The economy is still in the toliet and there are no consistent credible signs of any turn around in fiscal 2003.

                                                                                                                                                                  Yes, but Halliburton is doing better than ever!
                                                                                                                                                                  I know that Asspimple is stoopid ... As he says, it is a FACT !

                                                                                                                                                                  But I can't figure out how he can breathe or type , at the same time ....

                                                                                                                                                                    Comment

                                                                                                                                                                    • ADL Colin
                                                                                                                                                                      Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                                                                                                      • Feb 2001
                                                                                                                                                                      • 11929
                                                                                                                                                                      #42
                                                                                                                                                                      Originally posted by Centurion


                                                                                                                                                                      We lost a half a million jobs last year.
                                                                                                                                                                      Unemployment has surged to it's highest point in almost a decade.

                                                                                                                                                                      ..

                                                                                                                                                                      The economy is still in the toliet and there are no consistent credible signs of any turn around in fiscal 2003.
                                                                                                                                                                      And GDP is the highest it's ever been too. That's why you have to look at economic numbers like unemployment relative to the full size of the economy and not by themselves. Population grows, you know. ;-)

                                                                                                                                                                      The average unemployment rate since 1970 is 6.0%. It's about that right now.

                                                                                                                                                                      Average GDP growth the past year, average unemployment, very low inflation.


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                                                                                                                                                                        • ADL Colin
                                                                                                                                                                          Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                                                                                                          • Feb 2001
                                                                                                                                                                          • 11929
                                                                                                                                                                          #43
                                                                                                                                                                          Originally posted by reynold
                                                                                                                                                                          Figures like these are manipulated
                                                                                                                                                                          Clinton bashers said the economic figures were manipulated during his administration to make them look better than they were. Bush bashers say the same thing.

                                                                                                                                                                          It's all relative.


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                                                                                                                                                                            • ADL Colin
                                                                                                                                                                              Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                                                                                                              • Feb 2001
                                                                                                                                                                              • 11929
                                                                                                                                                                              #44
                                                                                                                                                                              Originally posted by S.L.L.D

                                                                                                                                                                              why don't you explain this to the 8% unemployed here in Miami?

                                                                                                                                                                              If this is not a recession -don't care what the books say- it must be an expansion where all jobs go to the Philipines/India and China?
                                                                                                                                                                              Unemployment rate is about 6%. If it's 8% in Miami it is lower than 6% somewhere else or else it couldn't average to 6%. What's your question? Why is the rate higher in some places and lower in others? I think you can figure that out.


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                                                                                                                                                                                • eatapeach
                                                                                                                                                                                  Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Dec 2001
                                                                                                                                                                                  • 493
                                                                                                                                                                                  #45
                                                                                                                                                                                  also, you have to realize that productivity gains lead to unemployment.

                                                                                                                                                                                  in the book "The End Of Work" by Jeremy Rifkin he details how computers and machines that make production more efficient invariably lead to higher unemployment. unless new or growing industries require workers and employs the unemployed these numbers only grow.

                                                                                                                                                                                  also, some statistics to think about:

                                                                                                                                                                                  US Average Unemployment by decade:

                                                                                                                                                                                  1950s - 4.5%
                                                                                                                                                                                  1960s - 4.8%
                                                                                                                                                                                  1970s - 6.2%
                                                                                                                                                                                  1980s - 7.3%
                                                                                                                                                                                  1990 - 1993 - 6.6%

                                                                                                                                                                                  these figures show that the current situation is not an abnormal amount of unemployed.

                                                                                                                                                                                  one thing about the current numbers is how the bush administration is constantly revising the numbers downward through manipulation of the methodology of the count.

                                                                                                                                                                                  if the methodology for counting the unemployed in the past was used today the percentage would be much higher.

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                                                                                                                                                                                    • El Mega
                                                                                                                                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Feb 2003
                                                                                                                                                                                      • 1014
                                                                                                                                                                                      #46
                                                                                                                                                                                      Originally posted by reynold
                                                                                                                                                                                      Figures like these are manipulated
                                                                                                                                                                                      like what....like this?



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                                                                                                                                                                                        • eatapeach
                                                                                                                                                                                          Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Dec 2001
                                                                                                                                                                                          • 493
                                                                                                                                                                                          #47
                                                                                                                                                                                          like what....like this?
                                                                                                                                                                                          how did you get that screenshot of my stats?

                                                                                                                                                                                          that was my best day ever!

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                                                                                                                                                                                            • kris242
                                                                                                                                                                                              Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Dec 2002
                                                                                                                                                                                              • 139
                                                                                                                                                                                              #48
                                                                                                                                                                                              Originally posted by Gutterboy
                                                                                                                                                                                              The US economy is gonna explode alright..
                                                                                                                                                                                              BOOM!

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                                                                                                                                                                                                • ADL Colin
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Feb 2001
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • 11929
                                                                                                                                                                                                  #49
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Originally posted by Buff


                                                                                                                                                                                                  I seriously hope you don't count the 10s of millions of people on the Federal and State and local government payrolls as employed, Colin -- they're glorified welfare recipients.
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Are you asking me if I am counting government employees in my evaluation that 2002 was a basically average year? Seems like a silly question.

                                                                                                                                                                                                  Has there been a surge relative to the entire workforce in government employment or are you just stating your philosophical preference?


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                                                                                                                                                                                                    • ADL Colin
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Feb 2001
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • 11929
                                                                                                                                                                                                      #50
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Originally posted by Buff


                                                                                                                                                                                                      The underlying economy is nothing close to what you think it is. There is a disaster looming and nothing short of electing Libertarians to every office is going to help at all.
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Don't get me wrong. I don't think it's a STRONG economy. I think it's average - even a little below average (but within a standard deviation) with a high probability of being better in the mid-term.

                                                                                                                                                                                                      Take away the government spending (deficit) and we would have been in a recession this year.

                                                                                                                                                                                                      That is the name of the game though. Keynes again ;-)


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