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Goethe

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#1

Real Estate Prices?

03-20-2020, 09:23 PM

What’s going to happen to real estate prices in the current corona climate? I’ve been reading drops of 10-20% in Australia. Considering it was riding one hell of a bubble, I think that’s hugely optimistic.

I realise it’s all an unknown at the moment, but when unemployment rises, credit is tightened and demand falls... 40-50-60% falls?

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#2

03-20-2020, 09:52 PM

I have been watching the carribean market closely, mostly listings in the dominican republic...distressed properties are starting to pop up, it is mostly in the cheaper areas and there have been substantial discounts appearing in the 20-30% range and we are still early in to this...most of the discounted properties are cheaper/smaller ones and this makes sense, it will be the smaller investors who go under first...

the real discounts will come in 3-4 months IMO...

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#3

03-20-2020, 10:17 PM

Once the elderly have dropped off the Chinese will buy up.

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Goethe

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#4

03-20-2020, 10:40 PM

Yeah it’s early in the game. 3-4 months in may still be too soon is this is going to be carrying on for 18 months or so, even longer maybe, then demand has to fall through the door.

I understand the idea that bricks and mortar is “safe as houses” but after a big bubble such as just about to deflate, I don’t think it is.

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Goethe

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#5

03-20-2020, 10:42 PM

Fucking auto correct trashed that last post - or the Saturday vino

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pimpmaster9000

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#6

03-21-2020, 12:22 AM

Originally posted by Goethe

Yeah it’s early in the game. 3-4 months in may still be too soon is this is going to be carrying on for 18 months or so, even longer maybe, then demand has to fall through the door.
s.

this is possible as well...I am leaning towards a fast "flash crash" but your scenario is possible as well...

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#7

03-21-2020, 05:27 AM

Your going to see a wave of for sale homes. But no one to buy. The banks will be forced to stop foreclosing.

But there are marktes you can buy in.

@Pimpmaster9000. If Cancun is part of the area you are viewing there will be a TON for sale very soon. Not the fire sale of some places but beach front and at a great price.

The 1 million and 600K condos will come down to 200k to 500K easy.

But to live there you need to have the income for it. ( dont know you dont mean any offense.) and income means something different than being able to buy that.

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Goethe

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#8

03-21-2020, 04:37 PM

Originally posted by pornguy

Your going to see a wave of for sale homes. But no one to buy. The banks will be forced to stop foreclosing.

Or nationalised? I haven't heard much talk of the N word as yet, but... Do you see this as a recession or a depression?

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#9

03-21-2020, 05:04 PM

I don’t think prices will drop a lot depends on the area tho tourist areas will drop 50% easy.

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#10

03-21-2020, 05:11 PM

Already dropping for sure.

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#11

03-21-2020, 06:15 PM

Not sure anyone is looking. Real estate tends to turn slowly. Now we have been screaming up for years. Time to buy is coming.
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#12

03-21-2020, 08:08 PM

Real estate prices will drop. We are about to be slammed with a massive recession.

During the great recession we had a 10% unemployment rate here in the US. Mnuchin, the United States secretary of the treasury, said he expects unemployment to hit 20%.

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Goethe

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#13

03-22-2020, 03:25 AM

Originally posted by Rochard

Real estate prices will drop. We are about to be slammed with a massive recession.

During the great recession we had a 10% unemployment rate here in the US. Mnuchin, the United States secretary of the treasury, said he expects unemployment to hit 20%.

Have to agree. I own a property but I’m not sure how long that will continue or how much money (on paper) I’m about to lose

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PornDiscounts-V

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#14

03-22-2020, 05:32 AM

Here in the USA we are months out as of yet. For a few months nobody is going to foreclose on you, evict you, etc. But eventually banks will win out and begin foreclosures. And people will begin to lose their jobs in due time. Housing starts will trickle.

But in four years things will be thriving again.

Already seeing a lot of people getting screwed who work at menial jobs. I'm telling them to apply at Amazon, Walmart distribution centers, grocery stores, essential places. They are hoping for unemployment. Hmm.. nice, but you don't get paid enough to survive with a mortgage payment.

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#15

03-22-2020, 09:43 AM

So now buy realestate? We're buying btc, realestate. Lots of people with lots of liquid cash i see. Savy investors everyone sitting on cash.

On the serious side, recession won't even hit in next few months. More like 1-2 years when safeguards run out.

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#16

03-22-2020, 10:13 AM

Watch china...they are about to open schools and return to normal life...if a second wave hits them then this will speed up the discounts severely...oh shit a second wave would be bad news for distressed owners...

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#17

03-22-2020, 12:44 PM

House prices will matter a lot on what happens with the economy. They have at least stemmed off forecloses for now so perhaps we wont end up in something like the last housing crisis. At least they are doing that here in the US.. One of the good things they've done.

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#18

03-22-2020, 02:11 PM

I've been in the market for a vacation property for a couple of months, now I'm not sure how long to wait
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#19

03-22-2020, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by fuzebox

I've been in the market for a vacation property for a couple of months, now I'm not sure how long to wait

It will go down and back up
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#20

03-22-2020, 02:58 PM

Originally posted by PornDiscounts-V

Already seeing a lot of people getting screwed who work at menial jobs. I'm telling them to apply at Amazon, Walmart distribution centers, grocery stores, essential places. They are hoping for unemployment. Hmm.. nice, but you don't get paid enough to survive with a mortgage payment.

Minimum wage is going to make it even more difficult for people with few or no skills to get jobs when they have so many other job applicants to compete against at the same time.

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#21

03-22-2020, 03:03 PM

One of the huge trends is the baby boomers retiring. With them downsizing to the sunbelt, the US is no longer growing population wise and now add this. I am not sure I would be a buyer here. What will drive prices?
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#22

03-22-2020, 03:59 PM

Originally posted by Goethe

Have to agree. I own a property but I’m not sure how long that will continue or how much money (on paper) I’m about to lose

My house is STILL not worth what I paid for it in 2006. I paid $580k for my house, and right now Zillow (I know about Zillow) says it's worth $500k.

Thankfully I like my house.

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#23

03-22-2020, 05:42 PM

Originally posted by slapass

One of the huge trends is the baby boomers retiring. With them downsizing to the sunbelt, the US is no longer growing population wise and now add this. I am not sure I would be a buyer here. What will drive prices?

And with a shrinking workforce, where will the money come from to prop up Social Security, which is essentially a government sponsored ponzi scheme?

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#24

03-23-2020, 01:20 AM

sold my rental property last week in 1 day on the market.. My agent told me that other agents were telling him there's no way we would get the selling price.. sold in 1 day. lmao

Originally posted by pimpmaster9000

I have been watching the carribean market closely, mostly listings in the dominican republic....

Dominican republic is a crime filled dump full of Haitians and Dominicans love to steal.. don't invest there

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#25

03-23-2020, 01:31 AM

Originally posted by adultinnovation

Dominican republic is a crime filled dump full of Haitians and Dominicans love to steal.. don't invest there

AVOID INVESTING IN THE D.R. – Dominican Real Estate – Foreigner's Nightmare

I am from the 3rd world myself, I have been to the DR several times and I am fine there...

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#26

03-23-2020, 12:23 PM

Originally posted by Goethe

What’s going to happen to real estate prices in the current corona climate? I’ve been reading drops of 10-20% in Australia. Considering it was riding one hell of a bubble, I think that’s hugely optimistic.

I realise it’s all an unknown at the moment, but when unemployment rises, credit is tightened and demand falls... 40-50-60% falls?

pretty sure real estate sales are halted
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Goethe

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#27

03-24-2020, 02:53 AM

Originally posted by Grapesoda

pretty sure real estate sales are halted

Things are changing by the minute here. PM has just been on to say that open houses are cancelled, as are public auctions. I believe private inspections can go ahead, but I can’t see many people up for that any time soon.

Talking heads on TV are suggesting a 20% drop in the near future and that’s with the 6 month repayment holiday. There have been some good % gains here in the past few years, so there’s a chance to get out with a gain if you’re quick I’d say.

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#28

03-24-2020, 04:19 AM

We own a few properties in Princeton, New Jersey - Three of the houses are a 1/2 block away from the University. They're favorable residential investment rentals among wealthy university students.

Our Real Estate jumped +1.2% because we attract folks with money. They spend their money and go home - <--> That's a plus, plus because it doesn't stress out our school systems and public services - We're not a community that's cash-strapped as other over crowded municipalities.

Location, location, location -
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