Europe's Crisis: Much Bigger Than Subprime, Worse Than U.S.

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  • avalanche
    Confirmed User
    • Feb 2005
    • 1922

    #1

    Europe's Crisis: Much Bigger Than Subprime, Worse Than U.S.

    John Mauldin, president of Millennium Wave Advisors, was among the few analysts whose forecasts for 2008 proved accurate. Mauldin, author of the popular "Thoughts from the Frontline" e-letter, joined us to discuss the economic situation in Eastern Europe.

    Scroll down to read highlights from Mauldin's analysis, and click "more" to embed the video.

    From The Business Insider:

    If you think things are bad here, take a quick peek at what's going on across the pond:

    The Telegraph: Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, said Eastern Europe has borrowed $1.7 trillion abroad, much on short-term maturities. It must repay ? or roll over ? $400bn this year, equal to a third of the region's GDP. Good luck. The credit window has slammed shut.

    Not even Russia can easily cover the $500bn dollar debts of its oligarchs while oil remains near $33 a barrel. The budget is based on Urals crude at $95. Russia has bled 36pc of its foreign reserves since August defending the rouble.


    Full Article: http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker...=ubs,cs,db,hbc
    Avalanche

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  • Michael O
    More Cowbell
    • Jul 2001
    • 10607

    #2
    I think I read it was €2500 billion most of it short term Europe will truly be fucked just a bad. Some analyst also predict Germany pulling out of the Euro because basically the Euro is fucked.
    Interesting times ahead.
    Truth Teller

    Comment

    • PurrrsianPussyKat
      Confirmed User
      • Jan 2004
      • 2088

      #3
      So wait.. americans aren't the only ones that lived beyond their means for years? I thought we were the cause of all the worlds ills.
      Need a reliable, reasonably priced php programmer? Hit me up! 2934409

      Comment

      • avalanche
        Confirmed User
        • Feb 2005
        • 1922

        #4
        The article states in depth that the cause of the problem is not the US and it's fiscal policy. The problem is most of Europe is so far extended into developing countries that it can't recover without something like the Federal Reserve in the US.
        Avalanche

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        Comment

        • PornMD
          Mainstream Businessman
          • Jan 2007
          • 9291

          #5
          Print more money, print more money! That's how to solve the problem! /sarcasm
          Want to crush it in mainstream with Facebook ads? Hit me up.

          Comment

          • notime
            Confirmed User
            • Jun 2003
            • 8027

            #6
            All people face the same problem. Oilsheiks to blue collar workers.

            Comment

            • IllTestYourGirls
              Ah My Balls
              • Feb 2007
              • 14311

              #7
              The problem is Keynesian Eco does not work. The world needs to realize this.

              Comment

              • Redrob
                Confirmed User
                • Oct 2004
                • 4791

                #8
                Sucks to be in business these days. I guess thing could be worse. We will see.

                Comment

                • Antonio
                  Too lazy to set a custom title
                  • Oct 2001
                  • 14136

                  #9
                  $1.7 trillion? I'll cover that with the profit from one of my blogs in less than 2 weeks

                  Comment

                  • Drake
                    Hello world!
                    • Mar 2003
                    • 12508

                    #10
                    Another notch on the belt for New World Order conspiracy theorists. lol

                    Comment

                    • Spunky
                      I need a beer
                      • Jun 2002
                      • 133978

                      #11
                      Legalize the reefer and get more lube.we all get fucked in the ass eventually

                      Comment

                      • grumpy
                        Too lazy to set a custom title
                        • Jan 2002
                        • 9870

                        #12
                        Originally posted by PornMD
                        Print more money, print more money! That's how to solve the problem! /sarcasm
                        thats not sarcasm, thats what they are doing right now. Where do you think the bailout comes from? You think they have a secret locker with some money or someone is lending it to the USA? Solving debt with more debt will neger ever work. Not for Eurpope not for USA
                        Don't let greediness blur your vision | You gotta let some shit slide
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                        Comment

                        • nolongerexists
                          Confirmed User
                          • Apr 2003
                          • 1096

                          #13
                          And in EU newspapers they say that US is going down... That's getting ridiculous :-)
                          work smart not hard ;)

                          Comment

                          • Blazed
                            Confirmed User
                            • Jun 2006
                            • 1701

                            #14
                            Originally posted by blindzior
                            And in EU newspapers they say that US is going down... That's getting ridiculous :-)
                            The problems in the US are much bigger.

                            Comment

                            • Jensen
                              Confirmed User
                              • Apr 2001
                              • 3790

                              #15
                              glad we have some cash stacked away...

                              Comment

                              • Axel XXX
                                Confirmed User
                                • Aug 2002
                                • 6924

                                #16
                                Originally posted by IllTestYourGirls
                                The problem is Keynesian Eco does not work. The world needs to realize this.
                                So fuckin true...
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                                Comment

                                • Pleasurepays
                                  BANNED - SUPPORTING TUBES
                                  • Aug 2002
                                  • 11913

                                  #17
                                  Europe needs to start placing little, teeny tiny classified ads in 1000s of newspapers across the region, advertising products.

                                  Comment

                                  • Ethersync
                                    Confirmed User
                                    • Mar 2008
                                    • 5289

                                    #18
                                    I have said that Europe is more fucked than the US for a long time. Posted many times about this on GFY. Nice to see it finally hitting the mainstream news. How things play out all depends on Germany. If they are unwilling or unable to shoulder the burden of bailing out the entire Euro Zone then the Euro may not survive.
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                                    Comment

                                    • who
                                      So Fucking Banned
                                      • Aug 2003
                                      • 19593

                                      #19
                                      I don't care about any of it. I have 250,000,000 Zimbabwean Dollars.

                                      Comment

                                      • who
                                        So Fucking Banned
                                        • Aug 2003
                                        • 19593

                                        #20
                                        Evidence:

                                        Comment

                                        • wjxxx
                                          So Fucking Banned
                                          • Feb 2005
                                          • 4448

                                          #21
                                          It`s bullshit. Eastern European countries have really small debt:
                                          Estonia - 3,4% GDP
                                          Russia - 5,9 % GDP
                                          Latvia - 7,4% GDP
                                          Ukraine - 11,7% GDP

                                          comparing with Central European contries:
                                          Slovenia - 23,6% GDP
                                          Czech Republic - 26% GDP
                                          Slovakia - 35,9% GDP

                                          or West European countries:
                                          Netherlands - 45,5% GDP
                                          Austria - 59,1% GDP
                                          Germany - 64,9% GDP
                                          Greece - 89,5% GDP
                                          Italy - 104% GDP

                                          The best is Japan 170% GDP, Lebanon 186,6% GDP and Zimbabwe 218.2% GDP

                                          source http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...by_public_debt
                                          Last edited by wjxxx; 02-28-2009, 04:49 AM. Reason: source added

                                          Comment

                                          • CarlosTheGaucho
                                            Confirmed User
                                            • Oct 2005
                                            • 9569

                                            #22
                                            Yeah but "Europe" and "Crisis" are synonyms for the past 50 years.

                                            Try to herd cats with dogs - it will end up as "crisis".
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                                            Comment

                                            • CarlosTheGaucho
                                              Confirmed User
                                              • Oct 2005
                                              • 9569

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Michael O
                                              I think I read it was ?2500 billion most of it short term Europe will truly be fucked just a bad. Some analyst also predict Germany pulling out of the Euro because basically the Euro is fucked.
                                              Interesting times ahead.
                                              Who was that "some analyst?" I would like to meet him, I will make sure he will feel like a complete idiot.
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                                              Comment

                                              • Fletch XXX
                                                GFY HALL OF FAME DAMMIT!!!
                                                • Jan 2002
                                                • 60840

                                                #24
                                                the same drunks who cant control spending and their own credit in the US (congressman, lawmakers, senators, government etc...) are in control there.

                                                you cant trust drunks with your money.

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                                                Comment

                                                • CarlosTheGaucho
                                                  Confirmed User
                                                  • Oct 2005
                                                  • 9569

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by IllTestYourGirls
                                                  The problem is Keynesian Eco does not work. The world needs to realize this.
                                                  Keynesian, NeoKeynesian / fuckeynesian - there is no economical theory that would ever "work", that's why they are called theories.

                                                  You can have a coffee with Stieglitz and he will explain it in better words than me.

                                                  The last theory that worked in the 20 th century was 12 years of reign of a certain, not too popular politician in Germany and also the reign of a couple, not too popular politicians in the Soviet Union (of course I'm not talking about Gorbatschev).
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                                                  Comment

                                                  • CarlosTheGaucho
                                                    Confirmed User
                                                    • Oct 2005
                                                    • 9569

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by notime
                                                    All people face the same problem. Oilsheiks to blue collar workers.
                                                    Jack, you're reminding me of someone.

























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                                                    Comment

                                                    • $5 submissions
                                                      I help you SUCCEED
                                                      • Nov 2003
                                                      • 32189

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by IllTestYourGirls
                                                      The problem is Keynesian Eco does not work. The world needs to realize this.
                                                      People need to realize that Business cycles are natural and should be left to unwind. Trying to "manage" it just creates bigger problems down the road.

                                                      Comment

                                                      • CarlosTheGaucho
                                                        Confirmed User
                                                        • Oct 2005
                                                        • 9569

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by $5 submissions
                                                        People need to realize that Business cycles are natural and should be left to unwind. Trying to "manage" it just creates bigger problems down the road.
                                                        Find a way how to push this on the political field.

                                                        You will clearly deserve the honorary Nobel prize for economy - for life.

                                                        You should also get inaugurated and become saint - fuck Mother Teresa, she didn't helped nowhere that many people in her lifetime that you would help in every second of the rest of your life once this would get into effect.
                                                        Last edited by CarlosTheGaucho; 02-28-2009, 05:38 AM.
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                                                        • Pleasurepays
                                                          BANNED - SUPPORTING TUBES
                                                          • Aug 2002
                                                          • 11913

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by $5 submissions
                                                          People need to realize that Business cycles are natural and should be left to unwind. Trying to "manage" it just creates bigger problems down the road.
                                                          empathy and emotion will always trump reason and logic. THAT is the problem with economics in the context of this discussion.

                                                          Comment

                                                          • $5 submissions
                                                            I help you SUCCEED
                                                            • Nov 2003
                                                            • 32189

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by CarlosTheGaucho
                                                            Find a way how to push this on the political field.
                                                            Thanks but no thanks. It is almost impossible to extricate the entitlement mentality that undergirds most economic tinkering by politicians. No one person can do it. It may take a general dissatisfaction and disgust with statist solutions arising out of hyperinflationary economic stagnation (similar to Jimmy Carter's term in the 70s).

                                                            Comment

                                                            • notime
                                                              Confirmed User
                                                              • Jun 2003
                                                              • 8027

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by CarlosTheGaucho
                                                              Jack, you're reminding me of someone.


























                                                              But I don't have a mustache

                                                              Comment

                                                              • CarlosTheGaucho
                                                                Confirmed User
                                                                • Oct 2005
                                                                • 9569

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by $5 submissions
                                                                Thanks but no thanks. It is almost impossible to extricate the entitlement mentality that undergirds most economic tinkering by politicians. No one person can do it. It may take a general dissatisfaction and disgust with statist solutions arising out of hyperinflationary economic stagnation (similar to Jimmy Carter's term in the 70s).
                                                                And that's what makes life so exciting - total lack of quality in people mixed with idiocy and ignoration.
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                                                                • CarlosTheGaucho
                                                                  Confirmed User
                                                                  • Oct 2005
                                                                  • 9569

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by wjxxx
                                                                  It`s bullshit. Eastern European countries have really small debt:
                                                                  Estonia - 3,4% GDP
                                                                  Russia - 5,9 % GDP
                                                                  Latvia - 7,4% GDP
                                                                  Ukraine - 11,7% GDP

                                                                  comparing with Central European contries:
                                                                  Slovenia - 23,6% GDP
                                                                  Czech Republic - 26% GDP
                                                                  Slovakia - 35,9% GDP

                                                                  or West European countries:
                                                                  Netherlands - 45,5% GDP
                                                                  Austria - 59,1% GDP
                                                                  Germany - 64,9% GDP
                                                                  Greece - 89,5% GDP
                                                                  Italy - 104% GDP

                                                                  The best is Japan 170% GDP, Lebanon 186,6% GDP and Zimbabwe 218.2% GDP

                                                                  source http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...by_public_debt
                                                                  wjxxx

                                                                  I will citate one of my all time favorite politicians Leonid Brezhnev:

                                                                  Mr. econom, I'll only get a headache from all those numbers of yours, let's go hunting!
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                                                                  • NoComments
                                                                    Confirmed User
                                                                    • Jan 2005
                                                                    • 4957

                                                                    #34
                                                                    when you import:
                                                                    American music, American culture, McDonalds, Pizza Huts, etc,
                                                                    you import American financial calamities too.
                                                                    Good luck, Europe. The last American Depression was conquered thru the WWII in Europe.
                                                                    Us, Americans, know thta and we can easily do it again! Have you seen Iran and North Korea working on nuks to kill us all? We'll save the world once again and our own asses in the process.
                                                                    ***************************************
                                                                    Give me the offer I can't refuse

                                                                    Comment

                                                                    • CarlosTheGaucho
                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                      • Oct 2005
                                                                      • 9569

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Anonymous (6:58 AM) :
                                                                      well I know for a fact that the Dutch are secretly thinking about printing new money called either daalders/florijnen or guilders.

                                                                      CarlosTheGaucho (6:58 AM) :
                                                                      European union is the fail, not Euro

                                                                      CarlosTheGaucho (6:58 AM) :
                                                                      it will not be solved with printing different currency

                                                                      Anonymous (6:58 AM) :
                                                                      ok there you have a point indeed

                                                                      ThumbLords (6:59 AM) :
                                                                      but the deutsch mark and the dutch guilder were very strong before we introduced the fucking euro.

                                                                      CarlosTheGaucho (6:59 AM) :
                                                                      yes, and ask why, because Euro means a completely different / unfuctional economical environment, that means you have to respect the needs of the whole completely unfunctional European union

                                                                      Anonymous (7:01 AM) :
                                                                      ok again you have a point there.
                                                                      on the other hand it is said Great Brittan will change from Pound to Euro so who knows what it will bring, either way those are scary times for loads of people.

                                                                      CarlosTheGaucho (7:01 AM) :
                                                                      well they tried to build something that can never work - united Europe

                                                                      CarlosTheGaucho (7:01 AM) :
                                                                      I will never want to share my interests with idiotic countries like ---censored--- or ---censored---

                                                                      CarlosTheGaucho (7:01 AM) :
                                                                      so I'm a solo player

                                                                      CarlosTheGaucho (7:02 AM) :
                                                                      I don't care where do I live but I won't be paying taxes to idiots

                                                                      Anonymous (7:02 AM) :
                                                                      1000% agredd.

                                                                      Anonymous (7:02 AM) :
                                                                      we should start an ecomic bbs together :-)

                                                                      CarlosTheGaucho (7:02 AM) :
                                                                      I will post it to GFY
                                                                      Last edited by CarlosTheGaucho; 02-28-2009, 06:06 AM.
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                                                                      • dyna mo
                                                                        just a fucking jerk
                                                                        • Dec 2008
                                                                        • 68184

                                                                        #36
                                                                        someone forward this thread to those in charge in europe, posthaste!

                                                                        Comment

                                                                        • CarlosTheGaucho
                                                                          Confirmed User
                                                                          • Oct 2005
                                                                          • 9569

                                                                          #37
                                                                          Originally posted by NoComments
                                                                          when you import:
                                                                          American music, American culture, McDonalds, Pizza Huts, etc,
                                                                          you import American financial calamities too.
                                                                          Good luck, Europe. The last American Depression was conquered thru the WWII in Europe.
                                                                          Us, Americans, know thta and we can easily do it again! Have you seen Iran and North Korea working on nuks to kill us all? We'll save the world once again and our own asses in the process.
                                                                          Need hosting, cloud, CDN or solutions for your AI? Go faster while saving with The Last Host you'll ever need!| Double Impact PR | Telegram carl_boro | Read My Educational Series | Read my Adult Biz Chronicles|

                                                                          Comment

                                                                          • Ethersync
                                                                            Confirmed User
                                                                            • Mar 2008
                                                                            • 5289

                                                                            #38
                                                                            Originally posted by wjxxx
                                                                            It`s bullshit. Eastern European countries have really small debt:
                                                                            Estonia - 3,4% GDP
                                                                            Russia - 5,9 % GDP
                                                                            Latvia - 7,4% GDP
                                                                            Ukraine - 11,7% GDP

                                                                            comparing with Central European contries:
                                                                            Slovenia - 23,6% GDP
                                                                            Czech Republic - 26% GDP
                                                                            Slovakia - 35,9% GDP

                                                                            or West European countries:
                                                                            Netherlands - 45,5% GDP
                                                                            Austria - 59,1% GDP
                                                                            Germany - 64,9% GDP
                                                                            Greece - 89,5% GDP
                                                                            Italy - 104% GDP

                                                                            The best is Japan 170% GDP, Lebanon 186,6% GDP and Zimbabwe 218.2% GDP

                                                                            source http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...by_public_debt

                                                                            Damn. You figured it all out. Eastern Europe is fine folks! No problems whatsoever
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                                                                            • evie
                                                                              So Fucking Banned
                                                                              • Jan 2003
                                                                              • 301

                                                                              #39
                                                                              Originally posted by who
                                                                              Evidence:

                                                                              How much that really worth?

                                                                              Comment

                                                                              • dyna mo
                                                                                just a fucking jerk
                                                                                • Dec 2008
                                                                                • 68184

                                                                                #40
                                                                                Originally posted by NoComments
                                                                                when you import:
                                                                                American music, American culture, McDonalds, Pizza Huts, etc,
                                                                                you import American financial calamities too.
                                                                                Good luck, Europe. The last American Depression was conquered thru the WWII in Europe.
                                                                                Us, Americans, know thta and we can easily do it again! Have you seen Iran and North Korea working on nuks to kill us all? We'll save the world once again and our own asses in the process.
                                                                                i'm certainly not up for arguing with serge but the eurozone trade deficit is due to a fall in exports and lower consumer spending- and the deficit has only risen recently while there was a surplus up to a few years ago.

                                                                                also, while the great depression ended during wwII, there is still debate about whether or not the war caused the end of the depression.

                                                                                Comment

                                                                                • Altwebdesign

                                                                                  #41
                                                                                  times ahead dont look too good!

                                                                                  Comment

                                                                                  • CarlosTheGaucho
                                                                                    Confirmed User
                                                                                    • Oct 2005
                                                                                    • 9569

                                                                                    #42
                                                                                    Originally posted by dyna mo
                                                                                    i'm certainly not up for arguing with serge
                                                                                    Please - no contraversy!

                                                                                    Last edited by CarlosTheGaucho; 02-28-2009, 06:27 AM.
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                                                                                    • Michael O
                                                                                      More Cowbell
                                                                                      • Jul 2001
                                                                                      • 10607

                                                                                      #43
                                                                                      Originally posted by CarlosTheGaucho
                                                                                      Who was that "some analyst?" I would like to meet him, I will make sure he will feel like a complete idiot.
                                                                                      Hayman Advisors
                                                                                      http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...r7A&refer=home
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                                                                                      Comment

                                                                                      • CarlosTheGaucho
                                                                                        Confirmed User
                                                                                        • Oct 2005
                                                                                        • 9569

                                                                                        #44
                                                                                        Originally posted by evie
                                                                                        How much that really worth?
                                                                                        About Evie,

                                                                                        Say hello to that old burglar, let him get well.

                                                                                        I'm sure he'll be able to handle the disease even in that terrible ancient age of him as far as I know his boards enthusiasm!
                                                                                        Last edited by CarlosTheGaucho; 02-28-2009, 06:34 AM.
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                                                                                        • CarlosTheGaucho
                                                                                          Confirmed User
                                                                                          • Oct 2005
                                                                                          • 9569

                                                                                          #45
                                                                                          Originally posted by Michael O
                                                                                          As a matter of fact, I know someone that's quite high in the Bloomberg food chain as I did the feature story about our business in the sig.

                                                                                          I am going to ask him to let them get in touch with me for a consultation !

                                                                                          LOL
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                                                                                          • MaDalton
                                                                                            I am Amazing Content!
                                                                                            • Feb 2004
                                                                                            • 39861

                                                                                            #46
                                                                                            Originally posted by Michael O
                                                                                            I think I read it was ?2500 billion most of it short term Europe will truly be fucked just a bad. Some analyst also predict Germany pulling out of the Euro because basically the Euro is fucked.
                                                                                            Interesting times ahead.
                                                                                            i would love to know who that analyst is supposed to be cause it's the first time i ever hear about it. so if that was Germanies plan it has not made german news yet.
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                                                                                            • Ethersync
                                                                                              Confirmed User
                                                                                              • Mar 2008
                                                                                              • 5289

                                                                                              #47
                                                                                              Originally posted by evie
                                                                                              How much that really worth?
                                                                                              Damn near nothing, well, except what you can sell it for on eBay I suppose. Their money had expiration dates because of how out of control inflation was

                                                                                              I think they are trying to move to some new standard now that is rate pegged to another stable currency.
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                                                                                              • CarlosTheGaucho
                                                                                                Confirmed User
                                                                                                • Oct 2005
                                                                                                • 9569

                                                                                                #48
                                                                                                Originally posted by MaDalton
                                                                                                i would love to know who that analyst is supposed to be cause it's the first time i ever hear about it. so if that was Germanies plan it has not made german news yet.



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                                                                                                • Ethersync
                                                                                                  Confirmed User
                                                                                                  • Mar 2008
                                                                                                  • 5289

                                                                                                  #49
                                                                                                  Originally posted by MaDalton
                                                                                                  i would love to know who that analyst is supposed to be cause it's the first time i ever hear about it. so if that was Germanies plan it has not made german news yet.
                                                                                                  I have been reading about this for most of 2008 and all of 2009. Many economists and analysts have said the Euro will not survive. Even Milton Friedman said that the Euro will fail when they have their next serious recession...
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                                                                                                  • CarlosTheGaucho
                                                                                                    Confirmed User
                                                                                                    • Oct 2005
                                                                                                    • 9569

                                                                                                    #50
                                                                                                    Originally posted by Ethersync
                                                                                                    Even Milton Friedman said that the Euro will fail when they have their next serious recession...
                                                                                                    Let that old scrap move his senile ass to the world behind the university doors someday!





                                                                                                    Ok I need to drive somewhere, but hell do I enjoy this.
                                                                                                    Last edited by CarlosTheGaucho; 02-28-2009, 06:44 AM.
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