So Trump only needs to win in FL and NC? :)

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  • mineistaken
    See signature :)
    • Apr 2007
    • 29656
    #1

    So Trump only needs to win in FL and NC? :)

    Check out current odds:
    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...tion-forecast/


    Trump needs to overturn FL and NC and he is over the top.
    And both are essentially 50/50 states:
    FL 49/51
    NC 48/52

    Now on the other side, red states that Hilary could overturn, neither are 50/50 like those two, biggest chances for Hilary to take red is Ohio with 64% Trump.

    Lets keep this thread without trolling, only inspecting this map.
    Tags: None
    • kane
      Too lazy to set a custom title
      • Aug 2001
      • 20684
      #2
      There are a lot of assumptions in that map. That map gives him Ohio, South Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Alaska, and Iowa all of which are considered toss-up states and have polls that are within 5 or fewer points. So, yes, if he wins all of those states then all he has to do is win Florida and North Carolina and he wins.

        Comment

        • onwebcam
          Fake Nick 1.0
          • Oct 2005
          • 27689
          #3
          Nate Silvers projections are worthless. PA is a tossup as well. Republicans had a high turnout in the primaries nearly equaling dems who have 900k more registered voters. In addition Hillary only received 22.5 of the vote whereas Trump received 28.1. Plus Ohio, PA, VA all are suffering under Obama's green thumb. I think all 3 of those states are going red. Might as well toss NC in there as well.
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            • Bladewire
              StraightBro
              • Aug 2003
              • 56228
              #4


              Skype: CallTomNow

                Comment

                • onwebcam
                  Fake Nick 1.0
                  • Oct 2005
                  • 27689
                  #5
                  Another state he has wrong is NH. There was a record turnout of republicans there in the primaries. And Trump received more votes than Hillary. New Hampshire Turnout Breaks Records, But Not On Democratic Side : NPR

                  There's a trend here. Record Republican turnout and low Democrat turnout. This will continue on election day.
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                    • Rochard
                      Jägermeister Test Pilot
                      • Dec 2001
                      • 75733
                      #6
                      Originally posted by kane
                      There are a lot of assumptions in that map. That map gives him Ohio, South Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Alaska, and Iowa all of which are considered toss-up states and have polls that are within 5 or fewer points. So, yes, if he wins all of those states then all he has to do is win Florida and North Carolina and he wins.
                      This is my understanding as well.... He needs to get ALL of the states in play to have a path to 270... He needs Ohio, South Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Alaska, and Iowa, Florida, and North Carolina....

                      Looking at http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...tion-forecast/.... Seems to me "right now" Clinton has 296 electorial votes, and Trump only 240.



                      Trump has to pick up some thirty electoral votes in the next six days - that's a tall order.
                      Herschel Savage
                      Brooklyn, NY

                        Comment

                        • Rochard
                          Jägermeister Test Pilot
                          • Dec 2001
                          • 75733
                          #7
                          Originally posted by onwebcam
                          Another state he has wrong is NH. There was a record turnout of republicans there in the primaries. And Trump received more votes than Hillary. New Hampshire Turnout Breaks Records, But Not On Democratic Side : NPR

                          There's a trend here. Record Republican turnout and low Democrat turnout. This will continue on election day.
                          The article you mentioned is from.... February 10th. This is for the primaries.

                          Seems like NH is going to go with Clinton.
                          Herschel Savage
                          Brooklyn, NY

                            Comment

                            • bronco67
                              Too lazy to set a custom title
                              • Dec 2006
                              • 29032
                              #8
                              Sure, he can win those states...but that's assuming he doesn't lose a Romney state.

                                Comment

                                • onwebcam
                                  Fake Nick 1.0
                                  • Oct 2005
                                  • 27689
                                  #9
                                  Originally posted by Rochard
                                  The article you mentioned is from.... February 10th. This is for the primaries.

                                  Seems like NH is going to go with Clinton.
                                  Do you read anything?
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                                    • onwebcam
                                      Fake Nick 1.0
                                      • Oct 2005
                                      • 27689
                                      #10
                                      I have Trump at 271 without FL. Giving him AZ, OH, PA, VA, NC, and NH.
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                                        • Rochard
                                          Jägermeister Test Pilot
                                          • Dec 2001
                                          • 75733
                                          #11
                                          Originally posted by onwebcam
                                          Do you read anything?
                                          Yes.

                                          I read the entire article. Then I went back and looked at the date. Republicans are turning out in NH in larger numbers than expected (as of February), and yet currently losing the state.



                                          And even so... NH only has... four electoral votes.
                                          Herschel Savage
                                          Brooklyn, NY

                                            Comment

                                            • onwebcam
                                              Fake Nick 1.0
                                              • Oct 2005
                                              • 27689
                                              #12
                                              Originally posted by Rochard
                                              Yes.

                                              I read the entire article. Then I went back and looked at the date. Republicans are turning out in NH in larger numbers than expected (as of February), and yet currently losing the state.


                                              And even so... NH only has... four electoral votes.
                                              You ignored what I said in the original post. "There was a record turnout of republicans there in the primaries." Then you said "February 10th. This is for the primaries."

                                              Anyway moving on.

                                              New Poll of New Hampshire Has Trump Leading - Christine Rousselle
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                                                • mineistaken
                                                  See signature :)
                                                  • Apr 2007
                                                  • 29656
                                                  #13
                                                  Originally posted by kane
                                                  There are a lot of assumptions in that map. That map gives him Ohio, South Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Alaska, and Iowa all of which are considered toss-up states and have polls that are within 5 or fewer points. So, yes, if he wins all of those states then all he has to do is win Florida and North Carolina and he wins.
                                                  Most of what you mentioned are considered toss up by a broad sense of the word. As in they could/might swing, but come on - SC, GA etc, highly unlikely to swing blue.
                                                  As in opposition - FL and NC are pretty likely to swing red in comparison.

                                                  Of course I agree that those are not locked in.

                                                    Comment

                                                    • Bladewire
                                                      StraightBro
                                                      • Aug 2003
                                                      • 56228
                                                      #14
                                                      Originally posted by onwebcam
                                                      I have Trump at 271 without FL. Giving him AZ, OH, PA, VA, NC, and NH.
                                                      You post the most slanted stuff from all alt-right sources this is why people here don't believe you anymore


                                                      Skype: CallTomNow

                                                        Comment

                                                        • altmman
                                                          Confirmed User
                                                          • Jan 2015
                                                          • 468
                                                          #15
                                                          It must suck to live in Florida, North Carolina or Ohio right now, getting constant robo calls or commercials "Vote for Hillary/ Vote for Trump" every minute of every day.

                                                          Those people must be going insane.

                                                            Comment

                                                            • mineistaken
                                                              See signature :)
                                                              • Apr 2007
                                                              • 29656
                                                              #16
                                                              Originally posted by altmman
                                                              It must suck to live in Florida, North Carolina or Ohio right now, getting constant robo calls or commercials "Vote for Hillary/ Vote for Trump" every minute of every day.

                                                              Those people must be going insane.
                                                              Based on the campaign fundings I'd say most of the calls are going for big money sponsored democrat candidate.

                                                                Comment

                                                                • Coup
                                                                  🚨 PBBC International 🚨
                                                                  • Apr 2010
                                                                  • 9931
                                                                  #17
                                                                  Originally posted by onwebcam
                                                                  I have Trump at 271 without FL. Giving him AZ, OH, PA, VA, NC, and NH.
                                                                  I think he will take Florida but will have trouble getting PA.

                                                                    Comment

                                                                    • Horatio Caine
                                                                      full-time aspiring rapper
                                                                      • Aug 2012
                                                                      • 5746
                                                                      #18
                                                                      More clueless foreigners talking politics. Nice.
                                                                      Where is my favorite Serbian skid mark at?

                                                                        Comment

                                                                        • Rochard
                                                                          Jägermeister Test Pilot
                                                                          • Dec 2001
                                                                          • 75733
                                                                          #19
                                                                          Originally posted by onwebcam
                                                                          You ignored what I said in the original post. "There was a record turnout of republicans there in the primaries." Then you said "February 10th. This is for the primaries."

                                                                          Anyway moving on.

                                                                          New Poll of New Hampshire Has Trump Leading - Christine Rousselle
                                                                          Yeah, because, you know, that's not a biased site. Take a look at the front page:
                                                                          Conservative news, politics, opinion, breaking news analysis, political cartoons and commentary ? Townhall

                                                                          Let's be realistic...
                                                                          RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - New Hampshire: Trump vs. Clinton
                                                                          http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...new-hampshire/

                                                                          \And again.... We are discussing all of four electoral votes.
                                                                          Herschel Savage
                                                                          Brooklyn, NY

                                                                            Comment

                                                                            • onwebcam
                                                                              Fake Nick 1.0
                                                                              • Oct 2005
                                                                              • 27689
                                                                              #20
                                                                              Originally posted by Rochard
                                                                              Yeah, because, you know, that's not a biased site. Take a look at the front page:
                                                                              Conservative news, politics, opinion, breaking news analysis, political cartoons and commentary – Townhall

                                                                              Let's be realistic...
                                                                              RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - New Hampshire: Trump vs. Clinton
                                                                              http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...new-hampshire/

                                                                              \And again.... We are discussing all of four electoral votes.
                                                                              I'm well aware of how many votes there are. That's not the point. Nate Silver is completely bias and incorrect. He's been caught changing poll numbers to reflect his projections.

                                                                              You're once again trying to debunk a source who is referring to the actual source. That being the New Hampshire Journal Poll: Ayotte Leads in Final Stretch, as Hassan Faces Headwinds from Clinton Support | New Hampshire Journal
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                                                                                • mineistaken
                                                                                  See signature :)
                                                                                  • Apr 2007
                                                                                  • 29656
                                                                                  #21
                                                                                  Originally posted by Horatio Caine
                                                                                  More clueless foreigners talking politics. Nice.
                                                                                  Where is my favorite Serbian skid mark at?
                                                                                  Actually you are even more clueless because you were claiming Trump had no chance, after primaries you were stating something like Clinton has +8 or whatever points, it is done deal etc etc. Smarter people were trying to explain to you that it means nothing at that stage and gave you reasoning. And as you can see you were proven WRONG. Trump as avery real chance her.
                                                                                  So you being an American makes it even more funny because you were ignorant ant clueless and stupid predicting it all wrong. Foreigners being "clueless" is at least understandable, American being clueless and ignorant and proud about that - laughable.

                                                                                  Be a man and admit it. You said Trump had no chance, you were wrong. As simple as that.

                                                                                  Unless you are trying to imply that you are smarter than http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...tion-forecast/ guys, who are doing this prediction thing professionally and who has Trump at very real 34.2% chances.

                                                                                  So go ahead and choose:
                                                                                  a) be a man and admit you were ridiculously wrong, clueless, not smart (pick whatever suits you)
                                                                                  b) state that you are still correct and you are smarter than http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...tion-forecast/ guys who are professionals at this thing (would be laughable and no one would take you seriously)
                                                                                  c) post another ad hominem, misdirection, avoiding question, off topic etc. Usually you are best at variant c.
                                                                                  d) Ignore the question. Everybody understands what is what even without you answering anyway

                                                                                    Comment

                                                                                    • C H R I S
                                                                                      Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                      • Nov 2005
                                                                                      • 10842
                                                                                      #22
                                                                                      Let him have Florida... crazy fuckers. He will not win.
                                                                                      C H R I S
                                                                                      Retired Porn Veteran

                                                                                      BH4L

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                                                                                        • C H R I S
                                                                                          Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                          • Nov 2005
                                                                                          • 10842
                                                                                          #23
                                                                                          For all the uneducated and Russian trolls:

                                                                                          2016 Presidential Election Interactive Map

                                                                                          Use this map to see how hard it will be for your emperor to win.... He needs to sweep ALL of the battlgrpounds and not lose AZ, NV,ETC ETC ETC
                                                                                          C H R I S
                                                                                          Retired Porn Veteran

                                                                                          BH4L

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                                                                                            • Joshua G
                                                                                              dumb libs love censorship
                                                                                              • Jul 2008
                                                                                              • 8198
                                                                                              #24
                                                                                              pretty self evident who drinks the liberal kool aid in this thread.

                                                                                                Comment

                                                                                                • badgirlfilms
                                                                                                  Confirmed User
                                                                                                  • Oct 2013
                                                                                                  • 1057
                                                                                                  #25
                                                                                                  email:badgirlartwork -at- gee mail dot com

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                                                                                                    • PR_Glen
                                                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                                                      • Oct 2006
                                                                                                      • 9058
                                                                                                      #26
                                                                                                      Originally posted by Joshua G
                                                                                                      pretty self evident who drinks the liberal kool aid in this thread.

                                                                                                      This thread has been pretty level headed until you posted this. People tend to listen to you more when you withhold the nonsense. Give it a try sometime.
                                                                                                      webmaster at pimproll dot com

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                                                                                                        • onwebcam
                                                                                                          Fake Nick 1.0
                                                                                                          • Oct 2005
                                                                                                          • 27689
                                                                                                          #27
                                                                                                          Damn I'm good

                                                                                                          The Fox News Decision Team announced updates to the scorecard Thursday afternoon, reflecting the following changes based on recent polling and other factors:

                                                                                                          New Hampshire moves from “lean Democrat” to “toss-up”
                                                                                                          Ohio moves from “toss-up” to “lean Republican”
                                                                                                          Indiana moves from “lean Republican” to “solid Republican”
                                                                                                          Missouri moves from “lean Republican” to “solid Republican”
                                                                                                          Fox News Electoral Scorecard: Key states tilting toward Trump after FBI's October surprise | Fox News
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                                                                                                            • Bladewire
                                                                                                              StraightBro
                                                                                                              • Aug 2003
                                                                                                              • 56228
                                                                                                              #28
                                                                                                              Originally posted by C H R I S
                                                                                                              For all the uneducated and Russian trolls:

                                                                                                              2016 Presidential Election Interactive Map

                                                                                                              Use this map to see how hard it will be for your emperor to win.... He needs to sweep ALL of the battlgrpounds and not lose AZ, NV,ETC ETC ETC
                                                                                                              Do you think any of them know that Trump has never been higher than Clinton in national polls since the race started?


                                                                                                              Skype: CallTomNow

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                                                                                                                • kane
                                                                                                                  Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                                                  • Aug 2001
                                                                                                                  • 20684
                                                                                                                  #29
                                                                                                                  Originally posted by onwebcam
                                                                                                                  Damn I'm good

                                                                                                                  The Fox News Decision Team announced updates to the scorecard Thursday afternoon, reflecting the following changes based on recent polling and other factors:

                                                                                                                  New Hampshire moves from ?lean Democrat? to ?toss-up?
                                                                                                                  Ohio moves from ?toss-up? to ?lean Republican?
                                                                                                                  Indiana moves from ?lean Republican? to ?solid Republican?
                                                                                                                  Missouri moves from ?lean Republican? to ?solid Republican?
                                                                                                                  Fox News Electoral Scorecard: Key states tilting toward Trump after FBI's October surprise | Fox News
                                                                                                                  Indiana is no shock. With the exception of Obama in 2008 (where he won by only 1 point) it has gone Republican 5 out of the last 6 elections. I think Ohio is a true toss up. Only a few points separate them and it has gone both Democrat and Republican in recent elections. Missouri is a pretty dark red state having not been won by a Democrat since Clinton in 1996. I don't know about New Hampshire. The polls I see show Clinton up by about 7 points and it has gone Democrat in 5 of the last 6 elections. Even if Trump wins it, 4 EVs isn't a whole lot.

                                                                                                                  He can lose either Pennsylvania or Florida, but he can't lose them both. Of course, if he wins them both that will make this a race. I think we will know pretty early on election night how things are going to play out based on what happens in those two states.

                                                                                                                    Comment

                                                                                                                    • Hannes
                                                                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                                                                      • May 2016
                                                                                                                      • 1594
                                                                                                                      #30
                                                                                                                      looks like its gonna be a close one
                                                                                                                      Skype: gallag97
                                                                                                                      Email: [U]comingsoon/U]

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                                                                                                                        • kane
                                                                                                                          Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                                                          • Aug 2001
                                                                                                                          • 20684
                                                                                                                          #31
                                                                                                                          Originally posted by Gallag97
                                                                                                                          looks like its gonna be a close one
                                                                                                                          It could be. Personally, I think Hillary will end up with around 300 EVs leaving Trump with somewhere in the 230s depending on how some of the smaller states play out.

                                                                                                                          If Hillary wins Pennsylvania and Florida early in the evening, it is over. If that happens Trump basically would have to win every other swing state and take away a few blue states to win which I don't think is going to happen.

                                                                                                                          What I think we may see are a handful of states (potentially Pennsylvania and Florida included) that end up being very close. It could be close enough in some states that the loser ends up challenging the results.

                                                                                                                            Comment

                                                                                                                            • onwebcam
                                                                                                                              Fake Nick 1.0
                                                                                                                              • Oct 2005
                                                                                                                              • 27689
                                                                                                                              #32
                                                                                                                              North Carolina is a done deal as well

                                                                                                                              Red Wolf tracking poll: Trump HOLDING NC lead

                                                                                                                              https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4l...QxZEJWVG8/view
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                                                                                                                                • kane
                                                                                                                                  Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                                                                  • Aug 2001
                                                                                                                                  • 20684
                                                                                                                                  #33
                                                                                                                                  Originally posted by onwebcam
                                                                                                                                  Another state he has wrong is NH. There was a record turnout of republicans there in the primaries. And Trump received more votes than Hillary. New Hampshire Turnout Breaks Records, But Not On Democratic Side : NPR

                                                                                                                                  There's a trend here. Record Republican turnout and low Democrat turnout. This will continue on election day.
                                                                                                                                  Where are you coming up with low Democrat turnout? According to Pew Research, there has been record Republican turnout, but Democrat turnout was almost identical to the Republican turnout. Other than 2008 when it was Obama and a lot of excitement, this year's Democrat primary turnout was the highest since 1988.

                                                                                                                                  The bigger question is if Bernie's supporters will turn out for Hillary. If they do Trump is done. If not, he has a chance.

                                                                                                                                    Comment

                                                                                                                                    • just a punk
                                                                                                                                      So fuckin' bored
                                                                                                                                      • Jun 2003
                                                                                                                                      • 32393
                                                                                                                                      #34
                                                                                                                                      Hilary will win, because the Hollywood-style political correctness requires it. There was a gay president of the USA. There is a black president of the USA. So the next one must be a woman. Actually I can predict who will be elected after her. It will be a transgender. So Nicky for president?
                                                                                                                                      Obey the Cowgod

                                                                                                                                        Comment

                                                                                                                                        • onwebcam
                                                                                                                                          Fake Nick 1.0
                                                                                                                                          • Oct 2005
                                                                                                                                          • 27689
                                                                                                                                          #35
                                                                                                                                          Originally posted by kane
                                                                                                                                          Where are you coming up with low Democrat turnout? According to Pew Research, there has been record Republican turnout, but Democrat turnout was almost identical to the Republican turnout. Other than 2008 when it was Obama and a lot of excitement, this year's Democrat primary turnout was the highest since 1988.

                                                                                                                                          The bigger question is if Bernie's supporters will turn out for Hillary. If they do Trump is done. If not, he has a chance.
                                                                                                                                          As many have argued here there are more democrat registered voters. I've also argued the point that you just made that democrats are turning out at equal to or less than Republicans. So if there are more registered democrats and they are turning out at equal to or less than Repubs there's a low turnout of Dems. North Carolina Primaries is a great example. Republicans had 800k more voters in the primaries.

                                                                                                                                          I'm calling Trump wins Florida. This race could be so close of electoral count Maine or New Hampshire could be the actual deciders.
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                                                                                                                                            • mineistaken
                                                                                                                                              See signature :)
                                                                                                                                              • Apr 2007
                                                                                                                                              • 29656
                                                                                                                                              #36
                                                                                                                                              Originally posted by C H R I S
                                                                                                                                              For all the uneducated and Russian trolls:

                                                                                                                                              2016 Presidential Election Interactive Map

                                                                                                                                              Use this map to see how hard it will be for your emperor to win.... He needs to sweep ALL of the battlgrpounds and not lose AZ, NV,ETC ETC ETC
                                                                                                                                              Clown shoes, just weeks ago you posted fivethirtyeigh's prediction as reputable and reliable source and now? Same site is having him at 36% chance of winning now.

                                                                                                                                              So there is no need for you to tell us "how hard" it will be, we know it is as hard as 36/100 chance.
                                                                                                                                              I am not claiming that he is a favorite, you fool.
                                                                                                                                              I (as fivethirtyeigh and other quality sources that can think, unlike you) am claiming that he has a REAL chance of winning. You and other less clever peers of yours where claiming otherwise, which is the only thing that is being made fun at in this thread.

                                                                                                                                              Ps: you are one good moron if you think we can not see the same info from fivethirtyeigh's map that we can see from your map.

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