Even Karl Rove predicts Obama will take Electoral and Win the election

**IllTestYourGirls** · 10-13-2008, 06:09 AM

If Obama does not win, its rigged.

**gornyhuy** · 10-13-2008, 06:15 AM

You think Rove making this prediction is a last minute scare tactic to try to mobilize the base?

**nation-x** · 10-13-2008, 06:18 AM

Originally posted by IllTestYourGirls

If Obama does not win, its rigged.

Way to drop a poison pill... lol.

**Fletch XXX** · 10-13-2008, 07:09 AM

Originally posted by gornyhuy

You think Rove making this prediction is a last minute scare tactic to try to mobilize the base?

I would assume so, but that isn't changing the electoral votes.

even in louisiana the republicans are scared. they are trying to censure republicans here who are voting for obama!

I am proud of louisiana, even republicas here are going for obama!!! Imagine!

**fris** · 10-13-2008, 07:10 AM

obama will win

**IllTestYourGirls** · 10-13-2008, 07:15 AM

The biggest mistake the McCain campaign made was voting for the bailout. He would have jumped 10% if he voted against it.

**stickyfingerz** · 10-13-2008, 07:18 AM

Last poll I saw McCain was in a near dead tie with Obama again. Anyone that thinks its close to decided will be sad on election day. lol

**IllTestYourGirls** · 10-13-2008, 07:20 AM

Originally posted by stickyfingerz

Last poll I saw McCain was in a near dead tie with Obama again. Anyone that thinks its close to decided will be sad on election day. lol

what poll was that?

http://gallup.com/Home.aspx

Down 7%

**directfiesta** · 10-13-2008, 07:22 AM

Originally posted by stickyfingerz

Last poll I saw McCain was in a near dead tie with Obama again. Anyone that thinks its close to decided will be sad on election day. lol

Last movie I saw was with Marlon Brando ....

**LAJ** · 10-13-2008, 08:20 AM

Obama is killing it in the popular and electoral votes. End of story.

Any media source that says this is close is full of shit and is pandering for ratings and/or has an agenda.

**borys** · 10-13-2008, 08:55 AM

Guess Rove is saying Obama supporters can safely stay at home on election day.

**MrPinks** · 10-13-2008, 09:32 AM

Seriously, WTF poll is that?

Originally posted by stickyfingerz

Last poll I saw McCain was in a near dead tie with Obama again. Anyone that thinks its close to decided will be sad on election day. lol

**MovieMaster** · 10-13-2008, 09:34 AM

Originally posted by gornyhuy

You think Rove making this prediction is a last minute scare tactic to try to mobilize the base?

Rove is strictly a numbers guy...

**aico** · 10-13-2008, 09:35 AM

Originally posted by MrPinks

Seriously, WTF poll is that?

Probably the Fox News Poll

**notoldschool** · 10-13-2008, 09:38 AM

Originally posted by stickyfingerz

Last poll I saw McCain was in a near dead tie with Obama again. Anyone that thinks its close to decided will be sad on election day. lol

LOL...all the shit you gave me about Ron Paul and your going to make a lamo statement like that?

**Verbal** · 10-13-2008, 09:56 AM

Originally posted by stickyfingerz

Last poll I saw McCain was in a near dead tie with Obama again. Anyone that thinks its close to decided will be sad on election day. lol

Seriously ... stop watching Fox News or at least do yourself a favor and 'flip' around a bit.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111112/Ga...ead-51-41.aspx

**uno** · 10-13-2008, 10:11 AM

Originally posted by MovieMaster

Rove is strictly a numbers guy...

No he isn't. He's a dirty tricks guy. Always has been.

Remember his special correct math in the 06 midterm elections?

**GatorB** · 10-13-2008, 10:20 AM

Originally posted by stickyfingerz

Last poll I saw McCain was in a near dead tie with Obama again.

You really need to watch something other than Fox.

**AlienQ - BANNED FOR LIFE** · 10-13-2008, 10:24 AM

Anyone that beleives a shit that spews from Roves mouth is surely retarded.

**CheeseFrog** · 10-13-2008, 11:09 AM

Originally posted by Nate Silver @ FiveThirtyEight.com

, we show John McCain with a 5.9 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, a figure that will seem implausibly low to many of you. But here's a bit of context from John Harwood at the New York Times:

In the latest Gallup tracking poll, Mr. Obama leads Mr. McCain 50 percent to 43 percent among registered voters. Mr. McCain’s deficit in that survey has remained seven percentage points or more for most of the last two weeks.

Since Gallup began presidential polling in 1936, only one candidate has overcome a deficit that large, and this late, to win the White House: Ronald Reagan, who trailed President Jimmy Carter 47 percent to 39 percent in a survey completed on Oct. 26, 1980.

There were 18 elections between 1936 and 2004, and in just one of those -- the 1980 race that Harwood mentions -- did a trailing candidate come back from a deficit this large in mid-October to win the election. One divided into 18 is 5.6 percent, which almost exactly matches our 5.9 percent estimate for Mr. McCain.

http://www.FiveThirtyEight.com (probably THE most accurate electoral projection site) has McCain at only a 5.9% chance of a win, as of yesterday 10/12/08. Today it's slightly higher at 6.3%, so he's gaining ground somewhere in one of the swing states. But you'd have to be a fool to believe that the two are "neck and neck". To put things in perspective:

Chance of Obama winning by a landslide (taking 375 EVs): 42.41%
Chance of McCain winning by any kind of margin: 6.3%

That doesn't mean Obama can just coast to a victory now though. As in the quoted text above, Ronald Regan pulled off a similar come-from-behind deficit. But then again, McCain and Regan are two completely different paint jobs.

Even Karl Rove predicts Obama will take Electoral and Win the election

Even Karl Rove predicts Obama will take Electoral and Win the election

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