Are the AVN and XBIZ Awards Rigged? Let's do the math ... - GoFuckYourself.com - Adult Webmaster Forum

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Kelli58

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News Are the AVN and XBIZ Awards Rigged? Let's do the math ...

07-14-2016, 07:39 PM

The full article can be seen at - http://www.naughtynews.network/avn-xbiz-awards-rigged-lets-math

I noticed that one agent more than any other were winning awards in two specific categories. So I hired a guy who has a PhD in Theoretical Astrophysics, as well as a degree in Theoretical Physics who was a particle physicist at CERN and current math teacher, who helped me calculate these odds of that happening.

What did he say?

Assuming that each agent has an equal likelihood of being chosen each year, the probability of the same agent being chosen all five years is 1 in 1,048,576.

Here are the winners for the last 5 years.

AVN Female Performer of the Year

2016 ? Riley Reid (Spiegler)
2015 ? Anikka Albrite (Spiegler)
2014 ? Bonnie Rotten (Spiegler)
2013 ? Asa Akira (Spiegler)
2012 ? Bobbi Starr (Spiegler)
XBIZ Female Performer of the Year

2016 ? Dani Daniels (OC Modeling)
2015 ? Anikka Albrite (Spiegler)
2014 ? Riley Reid (Spiegler)
2013 ? Brooklyn Lee (Spiegler)
2012 ? Asa Akira (Spiegler)

AVN Best New Starlet

2016 ? Abella Danger (Spiegler)
2015 ? Carter Cruise (Spiegler)
2014 ? Mia Malkova (Matrix Models)
2013 ? Remy LaCroix (Spiegler)
2012 ? Brooklyn Lee (Spiegler)
XBIZ Best New Starlet

2016 ? Abella Danger (Spiegler)
2015 ? Carter Cruise (Spiegler)
2014 ? Christy Mack (101 Modeling)
2013 ? Riley Reid (Spiegler)
2012 ? Jessie Andrews (Spiegler)

Those are some crazy odds that a Spiegler girl would win 5 years in a row ?. 1 in a million chance and yet it happened! Can you believe it?

LA Direct Models (as of today) has 53 female performers on their roster.

Spiegler has 31 female performers on their roster.

OC Modeling has has 52 female performers on their roster.

ATMLA has 45 female performers on their roster.

In all that works out to be 181 total active female performers.

Now out of those 181 female performers. Who are the most popular? To determine this we turn to our friend Google. Every time a fan Google?s their favorite porn star?s name, Google records that search. The more ?searches? a particular porn star has, the more famous she is.

They record the same data for all celebs. That?s why at the beginning of each year you see those most popular celeb lists. Anyway back to porn stars ? I ran a report today at Google. So keep in mind this data is valid as of July 14, 2016.

Out of the top 4 agencies (LA Direct Models, OC Modeling, ATMLA and Spiegler Girls) who has the most famous performers?

LA Direct Models ? BY FAR. There wasn?t even a competition. Let?s look at the top 10 and you?ll see why.

Alexis Texas (LA Direct) 2,740,000 searches per month

Asa Akira (Spiegler) 1,220,000 searches per month

Tori Black (LA Direct) 1 million searches per month

Dani Daniels (OC Modeling) 823k searches per month

Dillion Harper (LA Direct) 823k searches a month

Mia Malkova (LA Direct) 823k searches a month

Riley Reid (Spiegler) 823k searches a month

Julia Ann (ATMLA) 550k searches a month

Peta Jensen (OC Modeling) 550k searches a month

Valentina Nappi (Spiegler) 550k searches a month

42% of the best talent belong with LA Direct
24% of the best talent belong with Spiegler
22% of the best talent belong with OC Modeling
12% of the best talent belong with ATMLA

The girls at LA Direct Models get a total of 9,074,930 searches per month.
The girls with Spiegler get 5,072,990 searches per month.
The girls with OC Modeling get 4,674,090 searches per month.
The girls with ATMLA get 2,624,590 searches per month.

That means that LA Direct Models has the hottest bitches in the world. So statistically speaking, their girls should win the most awards, right?

With a million to 1 odds against it happening and knowing the most popular porn stars are with another agent, how is it Spiegler girls are winning the awards?

I can?t say for sure or not if something funny is going on or not, but numbers don?t lie. Draw your own conclusions.

The full article can be seen at - http://www.naughtynews.network/avn-xbiz-awards-rigged-lets-math

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#2

07-14-2016, 08:06 PM

Originally posted by Kelli58

[INDENT] So I hired a guy who has a PhD in Theoretical Astrophysics, as well as a degree in Theoretical Physics who was a particle physicist at CERN and current math teacher, who helped me calculate these odds of that happening.

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07-14-2016, 08:17 PM

You need help

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#4

07-14-2016, 08:35 PM

Originally posted by Kelli58

Assuming that each agent has an equal likelihood of being chosen each year, the probability of the same agent being chosen all five years is 1 in 1,048,576.

How about you bring this brilliant physicist here. I'd like to ask him if you could get any probability odds right by starting with the assumption that everyone is equal. This is not a lottery and doesn’t take more than an elementary degree to figure it out; definitely not someone holding a phD degree.

Agents represent performers that each one has different skills, looks, experience, scenes/year, fees and so on. Similarly, every agent has different characteristics. You cannot make such erroneous assumption. I'm sure your physicist didn't commit this mistake himself and he was fed with this assumption. AVN Awards are not rigged.

correction
------------
According to your article he did make that assumption himself to answer your question. I'll stay with my remark he didn't have the full picture of your question. You should send him this link btw.
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#5

07-14-2016, 09:41 PM

Originally posted by AVN Theo

How about you bring this brilliant physicist here. I'd like to ask him if you could get any probability odds right by starting with the assumption that everyone is equal. This is not a lottery and doesn?t take more than an elementary degree to figure it out; definitely not someone holding a phD degree.

Agents represent performers that each one has different skills, looks, experience, scenes/year, fees and so on. Similarly, every agent has different characteristics. You cannot make such erroneous assumption. I'm sure your physicist didn't commit this mistake himself and he was fed with this assumption. AVN Awards are not rigged.

correction
------------
According to your article he did make that assumption himself to answer your question. I'll stay with my remark he didn't have the full picture of your question. You should send him this link btw.

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#6

07-15-2016, 12:03 AM

Seems strange when compared to Google Searches. As the votes aren't from the public why do industry people vote for girls less popular with the public?

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#7

07-15-2016, 12:15 AM

How much did you pay him for this analysis?
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#8

07-15-2016, 06:13 AM

Both are great events.. you ever been??

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#9

07-15-2016, 06:19 AM

'Assuming that each agent has an equal likelihood of being chosen each year'

pretty critical part of the statement
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#10

07-15-2016, 06:45 AM

some buzzfeed level journalism there

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#11

07-15-2016, 06:55 AM

Math is something most people don't understand.
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#12

07-15-2016, 07:18 AM

I wish I had even a portion of free time to spend on conspiracy theories like this.

Geez, are you that bored? It's all entertainment and both are great shows.
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#13

07-15-2016, 07:29 AM

I do not have any AVN or XBiz Awards so I would definitely say it's rigged. :D

Are The Oscars rigged? The Grammys? The Emmys?
Move along, nothing to see here (now where's my Award? LOL).

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#14

07-15-2016, 08:18 AM

Kelli is Back

This one is a reach.... what would either company gain by favoring an agent??

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#15

07-15-2016, 08:29 AM

congrats to the winners ...

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#16

07-15-2016, 08:35 AM

You could have just asked us to do the math..

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#17

07-15-2016, 08:56 AM

But, that's also like saying "Michael Jordan won 6 championships, what a lucky guy."...

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#18

07-15-2016, 09:40 AM

We're all adults, we know how things go and its human nature, nothing wrong with it.

In most organizations people earn their place through sacrifice, success, popularity, perseverance & time.

There are no obstacles stopping the OP from creating their own grassroots operation, the problem is most don't want to put in all the resources it takes, and the few who do reep the rewards, as it should be.

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#19

07-15-2016, 09:45 AM

I've been in this industry for over 25 years and hear this same doubt every now and then.
AVN isn't rigged - no one can pay money or get special nods for being a sponsor.
Simply put it's fair and they use different methods than Google ranking, it's an industry awards - not to mention anyone can play with google to increase their ranking if need be

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#20

07-15-2016, 09:47 AM

Originally posted by _Richard_

'Assuming that each agent has an equal likelihood of being chosen each year'

pretty critical part of the statement

Lol right? I hope the PhD was not paid .

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#21

07-15-2016, 09:55 AM

I don't understand why you and Mike write about such nonsense. You post opinions, not facts. If you can't back up your statements with proof then your findings are worthless.

By the replies here I think it's safe to say 0% of webmasters give a shit about your site and posts.

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#22

07-15-2016, 10:30 AM

Originally posted by Mikey Verotel

Both are great events.. you ever been??

I never said they weren't great events. I simply provided you with a question and let you draw your own conclusions.

In fact what I said at the end of the post was this ...

With a million to 1 odds against it happening and knowing the most popular porn stars are with another agent, how is it Spiegler girls are winning the awards?

I can't say for sure if something funny is going on or not, but the numbers are staggeringly odd.

Draw your own conclusions.

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07-15-2016, 10:33 AM

Originally posted by TheLegacy

Not to mention anyone can play with google to increase their ranking if need be

Google searches isn't exactly like Alexa. It's not as easily gamed. But that issue aside, it's not like you have a ton of porn girls out there begging fans to Google their name so they can appear to be more popular.

I can honestly say in the 20 years I've been in this business, I have never seen that happen even once.

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07-15-2016, 10:40 AM

Originally posted by Kenny B!

I don't understand why you and Mike write about such nonsense. You post opinions, not facts. If you can't back up your statements with proof then your findings are worthless.

My site is for entertainment. Some people, obviously not you, but some people happen to enjoy reading stories about the adult industry.

Some people like conspiracy theories. Some people like to know when their favorite porn star is getting a new boob job.

It doesn't mean this type of site is for everyone, but that's okay. I don't need your approval. My site does just fine without you.

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#25

07-15-2016, 10:49 AM

If peope are winning without buying advertising then it's obviously not fixed.
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#26

07-15-2016, 10:52 AM

Originally posted by Kelli58

My site is for entertainment. Some people, obviously not you, but some people happen to enjoy reading stories about the adult industry.

Some people like conspiracy theories. Some people like to know when their favorite porn star is getting a new boob job.

It doesn't mean this type of site is for everyone, but that's okay. I don't need your approval. My site does just fine without you.

I'm good with entertainment and enjoy reading about the industry, especially if someone is getting their boobs done. If you started a thread showing before and after pictures of the stars boob jobs you'd get move views and all positive feedback.

It's the unproved or baseless accusations against reputable companies and individuals that I don't approve of.

Coming here posting this stuff is just a cry for attention and traffic to your site, just like Mike, Donny and Jay did before their bans.

I have nothing against you as I don't really know you other than your posts on here and xbiz.

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#27

07-15-2016, 10:52 AM

All I know is I gave Theo a hanny backstage at the AVN Awards last year because he promised me I would win for 'Best New Cummer" if I did so. But all I got was a giant load of jizz.

Where's the trophy Theo??

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#28

07-15-2016, 11:16 AM

Crazy stats right there...

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#29

07-15-2016, 11:31 AM

Originally posted by The Porn Nerd

All I know is I gave Theo a hanny backstage at the AVN Awards last year because he promised me I would win for 'Best New Cummer" if I did so. But all I got was a giant load of jizz.

Where's the trophy Theo??

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#30

07-15-2016, 11:33 AM

AVN and XBiz Awards are in fact rigged in more ways than one some ways are more overt than others...

BUT

Even though Speigler was and maybe still is the financial backer for Sean Tompkins who is the backer for Donny Long I will say this in defense of Speigler

It could be his girls win because he holds his girls to a MUCH higher standard and doesn't take any bullshit, he will drop them quickly for doing things that other agencies just shrug off, as a result he gets his girls higher rates because they tend to be more professional and dependable as a result producer directors tend to think more highly of Speiglers girls so I can see where they might have an edge. even a decided one.

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#31

07-15-2016, 11:46 AM

Originally posted by TheLegacy

I've been in this industry for over 25 years and hear this same doubt every now and then.
AVN isn't rigged - no one can pay money or get special nods for being a sponsor.
Simply put it's fair and they use different methods than Google ranking, it's an industry awards - not to mention anyone can play with google to increase their ranking if need be

I will explain the simplest way that they are without a doubt rigged. I have pointed this out many times.

The voters are AVN Employees for the most part at least until recently but even at that the voters are readers of AVN and any way you look at it that isn't an objective vote.

Now people nominate themselves and in an effort to keep the advertisers happy AVN (and XBiz) routinely nominate 15 finalists and rarely is there anything nominated that stands out in any way but lets suppose that Steven Speilberg made the worlds best porn under a pseudonym and nominated himself (as is the standard) but his movie was never advertised in AVN so very few of the voters ever heard of it when it comes time to vote do you really think that these voting people watch all 15 movies in each of what 50 or 60 categories? Nope they vote based on reviews, word of mouth and familiarity from ads. if you don't advertise heavily you simply will not have a chance.

If AVN really wanted to make it fair the voters would be impartial and not influenced by who is writing a check that keeps them in their jobs there wouldn't be 15 nominees in every category and the people voting would have some sort of qualifying criteria as judges of what is good and what isn't.

Theres a lot more but theres a good start

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#32

07-15-2016, 12:09 PM

Originally posted by mikesouth

I will explain the simplest way that they are without a doubt rigged. I have pointed this out many times.

The voters are AVN Employees for the most part at least until recently but even at that the voters are readers of AVN and any way you look at it that isn't an objective vote.

Now people nominate themselves and in an effort to keep the advertisers happy AVN (and XBiz) routinely nominate 15 finalists and rarely is there anything nominated that stands out in any way but lets suppose that Steven Speilberg made the worlds best porn under a pseudonym and nominated himself (as is the standard) but his movie was never advertised in AVN so very few of the voters ever heard of it when it comes time to vote do you really think that these voting people watch all 15 movies in each of what 50 or 60 categories? Nope they vote based on reviews, word of mouth and familiarity from ads. if you don't advertise heavily you simply will not have a chance.

If AVN really wanted to make it fair the voters would be impartial and not influenced by who is writing a check that keeps them in their jobs there wouldn't be 15 nominees in every category and the people voting would have some sort of qualifying criteria as judges of what is good and what isn't.

Theres a lot more but theres a good start

Any awards program with nominations has common parametees they need to work within, like the Grammys, Oscars, The Peoples Choice Awards, etc. Nominees also typically lobby the judges, the public, their own fans & advertisers to get a higher profile to win an award.

From what I've seen you haven't listed anything atypical of any legitimate awards program.

I have no skin in this game, I just feel if you're going to claim fraud just put your balls on the table and prove it.

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#33

07-15-2016, 12:09 PM

If you are not invited to the table or buy a seat you won't win -- just like in real life
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#34

07-15-2016, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by Barry-xlovecam

If you are not invited to the table or buy a seat you won't win -- just like in real life

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#35

07-15-2016, 02:52 PM

Originally posted by Bladewire

From what I've seen you haven't listed anything atypical of any legitimate awards program.

I don't know if you have heard of a little company called MTV and their annual "Teen Choice Awards". It's a very big deal to the younger crowd. They had a HUGEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE scandal over the awards being rigged. Google it. It's quite funny.

So yes, it happens everywhere -- Mainstream and porn.

But is that really the point?

No. To me the most interesting part of the full post (if you read it at my site), was the math. The probability and percentages. I mean who would have figured that LA Direct Models is sitting on top of 42% of the most popular active porn performers? I knew he had some hot girls on the site but that number was WAY higher than I would have thought, especially when you compare it to the other top 3 agents.

I'm not going to lie. I would have thought Derek's day was over but after seeing his numbers, I was so dead wrong.

I personally LOVE the AVN awards and somewhat to a lesser extent the XBIZ awards. They are obviously great for marketing purposes but more than that, as a girl who doesn't love the red carpet? I mean come on ... totally the best part!

Yes there are some statistically anomalies in a few of the award categories, I don't think anyone would deny that. But does it mean the show is rigged?

I really can't even say that myself. I mean odd YES. But rigged? Ehhh, it's really hard to know for sure.

That's why I said, what do you think? You need to draw your own conclusions.

It's all in good fun. I think the guys over at AVN by now know how much I actually love their show and have long been a HUGE supporter of it, especially the red carpet. Heck, I even helped Cezar Capone coordinate the red carpet show back in 2008.

The whole swarovski crystals on the mics ... that was totally me!

So let's stop getting so butt hurt over a silly little story.

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#36

07-15-2016, 02:56 PM

Spiegler brings the goods, that's for sure.

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#37

07-15-2016, 05:27 PM

I think we all know who is the best now.
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#38

07-15-2016, 05:30 PM

Originally posted by mikesouth

AVN and XBiz Awards are in fact rigged in more ways than one some ways are more overt than others...

BUT

Even though Speigler was and maybe still is the financial backer for Sean Tompkins who is the backer for Donny Long I will say this in defense of Speigler

It could be his girls win because he holds his girls to a MUCH higher standard and doesn't take any bullshit, he will drop them quickly for doing things that other agencies just shrug off, as a result he gets his girls higher rates because they tend to be more professional and dependable as a result producer directors tend to think more highly of Speiglers girls so I can see where they might have an edge. even a decided one.

While I rarely agree with you, I do on that comment
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#39

07-15-2016, 07:46 PM

Its the porn industry. Not as shady as Hollywood but...

People vote for their friends or who campaigns the hardest for the win. I enjoyed the data but searches vs. biz popularity are a tough theorem to crack.
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#40

07-15-2016, 07:57 PM

Award shows are about marketing.

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#41

07-15-2016, 08:08 PM

It's just a show, you know,,,, like Keeping Up with the Kardashians.

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#42

07-15-2016, 08:30 PM

All about the branding,timing.and whose palm to grease

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#43

07-16-2016, 02:42 PM

Originally posted by AVN Theo

How about you bring this brilliant physicist here. I'd like to ask him if you could get any probability odds right by starting with the assumption that everyone is equal. This is not a lottery and doesn?t take more than an elementary degree to figure it out; definitely not someone holding a phD degree.

Agents represent performers that each one has different skills, looks, experience, scenes/year, fees and so on. Similarly, every agent has different characteristics. You cannot make such erroneous assumption. I'm sure your physicist didn't commit this mistake himself and he was fed with this assumption. AVN Awards are not rigged.

correction
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According to your article he did make that assumption himself to answer your question. I'll stay with my remark he didn't have the full picture of your question. You should send him this link btw.

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NatalieK

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#44

07-16-2016, 04:02 PM

Originally posted by Kelli58

With a million to 1 odds against it happening and knowing the most popular porn stars are with another agent, how is it Spiegler girls are winning the awards?

I'm signing up at Spiegler

In serious, can models sign up to any of these agencies? If LAdirect has that many hits, I'll sign up to them anyway

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dillfly2000

hey

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#45

07-16-2016, 06:58 PM

I wish I had time to figure stuff out
I'm gonna go catch some Pokemon in my back yard.

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Tjeezers

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#46

07-17-2016, 09:40 PM

I do know from my own experience Xbiz is one of the better webmaster resources sites on the net that I know of

They won a nice award on the LALexpo in Cartagena, congratulations for them!

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Harambe

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#47

07-17-2016, 09:53 PM

Originally posted by GspotProductions

I'm signing up at Spiegler

In serious, can models sign up to any of these agencies? If LAdirect has that many hits, I'll sign up to them anyway

sorry hunny but they aren't looking for well aged women
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Bladewire

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#48

07-17-2016, 10:00 PM

Originally posted by Kelli58

I don't know if you have heard of a little company called MTV and their annual "Teen Choice Awards". It's a very big deal to the younger crowd. They had a HUGEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE scandal over the awards being rigged. Google it. It's quite funny.

So yes, it happens everywhere -- Mainstream and porn.

But is that really the point?

No. To me the most interesting part of the full post (if you read it at my site), was the math. The probability and percentages. I mean who would have figured that LA Direct Models is sitting on top of 42% of the most popular active porn performers? I knew he had some hot girls on the site but that number was WAY higher than I would have thought, especially when you compare it to the other top 3 agents.

I'm not going to lie. I would have thought Derek's day was over but after seeing his numbers, I was so dead wrong.

I personally LOVE the AVN awards and somewhat to a lesser extent the XBIZ awards. They are obviously great for marketing purposes but more than that, as a girl who doesn't love the red carpet? I mean come on ... totally the best part!

Yes there are some statistically anomalies in a few of the award categories, I don't think anyone would deny that. But does it mean the show is rigged?

I really can't even say that myself. I mean odd YES. But rigged? Ehhh, it's really hard to know for sure.

That's why I said, what do you think? You need to draw your own conclusions.

It's all in good fun. I think the guys over at AVN by now know how much I actually love their show and have long been a HUGE supporter of it, especially the red carpet. Heck, I even helped Cezar Capone coordinate the red carpet show back in 2008.

The whole swarovski crystals on the mics ... that was totally me!

So let's stop getting so butt hurt over a silly little story.

I made great money refering my models to producer Mike @ MTV Beach house back then in Huntington Beach, CA.

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JFK

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#49

07-18-2016, 09:07 AM

Originally posted by the Shemp

congrats to the winners ...

Indeed !

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