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Originally Posted by Paul
It's getting interesting with these regional proxy wars. How do you see this playing out?
Russia are definitely starting to flex their influence, they've prevented/delayed Syria from another Western backed regime change by supporting the Syrian Government.
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It's impossible to say how it will play out. They took back Chechnya... which was largely about oil. I don't think Russia is trying to "flex".. .they have a more or less legit opportunity to jump in and get a foothold in the Ukraine again. Since Ukraine split, there has been a constant issue of natural gas supplies to Russia and prices, the loss of their black sea naval base and the threat for the last 15 years at least of the Ukraine joining NATO and NATO also putting missile defense systems there. All Russia really has to do is to start driving wedges into this place and it will make it much much harder for the west to influence the Ukraine and an impossibility to join the EU.
All of this is less about long term strategic planning than it is about simply taking advantage of opportunities as they present themselves. Every win for Putin is a loss for the West. He has been fucking with Obama for a while ... he know's nothing is going to happen from the West and the opportunities are there to exert influence in the Ukraine and divide them over the west. It's win/win for Russia, no matter what happens.