Quote:
Originally posted by Penthouse_mike
22/52*22/52*22/52*30/52
4.36%
Edited: to remove geeky exposition
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What you're showing is the possibilty of any one <B>specific</B> match of a series being the only one not 7 games long.
Look at it this way- There are four series to be played, and three of them must be 7 games and one of the others is of 4-6 games.
OK, label each of the series A-D, but use lower case to designate the 4-6 game set. You'll then see there are 4 possible permutations:
a-B-C-D = 30/52*22/52*22/52*22/52
A-b-C-D = 22/52*30/52*22/52*22/52
A-B-c-D = 22/52*22/52*30/52*22/52
A-B-C-d = 22/52*22/52*22/52*30/52
This is how P(A), the number of possible ways, is derived. So we have <B>22/52*22/52*22/52*30/52*4</B>. But that has to be divided by 1 - P(A), the number of ways it doesn't happen, to give the odds.
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