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I don't think Bush is dumb. He's from the NE and ivy league schooled. That whole Texas thing was to get the rednecks behind him because they will believe anything.
I personally think Bush's problem was that he had a vendetta against Saddam because of his Dad, he was too friendly to special interests (and his friends) and listened too much to self-serving Cheney.
Edit: I do think that if he were not part of the Bush family few of us would know who he is.
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