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Likely he will simply because the republicans have a weak field of candidates. However, if the economy is still in a downward spiral on election day he could be vulnerable to a guy like Romney. Romney likely won't have much support from the religious right nor the tea party, but if he hammers hard on the economy and has a realistic common sense way to improve the economy that he can sell the public he could gain with the independents.
That said, if election day comes and the economy is improving Obama will be pretty hard to beat.
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