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will76

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#1

are you concerned with Hurricane Dean ?

08-16-2007, 11:17 AM

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdlt...hour=Animation

Click the play button on the right side of the page.

it's still a long ways away but this one model does not make me feel good.

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#2

08-16-2007, 11:29 AM

Dean, welcome to texas
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#3

08-16-2007, 11:34 AM

looks about par for the course.

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#4

08-16-2007, 11:37 AM

I'm not sweating it. The most it would mean is some rain in AZ, maybe....if we're lucky.
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#5

08-16-2007, 11:41 AM

I heard it was gonna hit Cuba And Yucatan - that usually slows things down doesn't it?
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#6

08-16-2007, 11:41 AM

My next door neighbors live in Naples FL - they went through one season with 4 hurricanes. She told me today if it even LOOKS like Dean's headed their way, they're headed here.

We usually get remnants of hurricanes which are usually good. A few (Ivan and Opal come to mind) have dumped more rain than we wanted/needed/could absorb, but as a general rule, what's bad for the coast is usually good for N. GA.
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#7

08-16-2007, 01:44 PM

Originally posted by damian2001

I heard it was gonna hit Cuba And Yucatan - that usually slows things down doesn't it?

It will likely cross over one of the two locations you mentioned. There is a chance it could miss both, which would be really bad as there would be nothing to hinder it.

But both locations are pretty flat and it would only stay over them for a short period of time. If it was 140mph winds before it hit those land masses, it would be like 120mph coming out the other side. Not to mention the Gulf it really hot and it could explode even stronger than it was before it got into the gulf.

The short answer, if it hit Cuba or the Yucatan it would help a little, but overall , not really.

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#8

08-16-2007, 01:54 PM

Originally posted by will76

It will likely cross over one of the two locations you mentioned. There is a chance it could miss both, which would be really bad as there would be nothing to hinder it.

But both locations are pretty flat and it would only stay over them for a short period of time. If it was 140mph winds before it hit those land masses, it would be like 120mph coming out the other side. Not to mention the Gulf it really hot and it could explode even stronger than it was before it got into the gulf.

The short answer, if it hit Cuba or the Yucatan it would help a little, but overall , not really.

I cant imagine what would happen if NO got hit by a 4 again - I did have a feeling it would a few days before Katrina hit - 3 days before in fact I said it was going to be huge...... If I am bored later I will look up my posts.

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#9

08-16-2007, 02:06 PM

Anyone want to head to Cozumel or Cancun?
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#10

08-16-2007, 02:11 PM

Originally posted by damian2001

I cant imagine what would happen if NO got hit by a 4 again - I did have a feeling it would a few days before Katrina hit - 3 days before in fact I said it was going to be huge...... If I am bored later I will look up my posts.

I have a spare room in the UK

Maybe this time everyone will listen up and get out of town instead of sticking around.
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#11

08-16-2007, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by will76

it's still a long ways away but this one model does not make me feel good.

Don't look good and prob time for the "longer term preparation", but early to say yet.

Can remember at least two hurricane's which behaved totally against all forecasts - one stopped dead above the Virgin Islands then pounded them to hell for 2-3 days and died off. Another was heading straight towards us tho 12-15 hours away, but then turned at a 90 degree angle into open sea.

It's worth making sure there are plenty backups of data regardless
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#12

08-16-2007, 02:16 PM

Not too concerned, but damn does it ever rain here when a hurricane blows by.
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#13

08-16-2007, 02:19 PM

Originally posted by damian2001

I cant imagine what would happen if NO got hit by a 4 again - I did have a feeling it would a few days before Katrina hit - 3 days before in fact I said it was going to be huge...... If I am bored later I will look up my posts.

I have a spare room in the UK

only if you promise not to tie me up and touch me in inappropriate places, and try to brainwash me with "AFF is good" thoughts.

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#14

08-16-2007, 02:30 PM

Originally posted by will76

only if you promise not to tie me up and touch me in inappropriate places, and try to brainwash me with "AFF is good" thoughts.

I was thinking about a large bottle of Vodka followed by inappropriate touching -

Lar's said the brainwashing wasn't necessary - you make him more money with your constant promotion of his sites
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#15

08-16-2007, 02:39 PM

We are under a Tropical Storm watch here in Puerto Rico. Doesn't bother me.
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#16

08-16-2007, 02:39 PM

Sems like that would be fun lol
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#17

08-16-2007, 11:31 PM

Originally posted by teg0

We are under a Tropical Storm watch here in Puerto Rico. Doesn't bother me.

you will be ok in PR. but Jamaica is fucked.

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#18

08-16-2007, 11:33 PM

hoping that no one will get hurt when the hurricane arrives.....

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#19

08-16-2007, 11:47 PM

It feels so good to be on the other side of the Atlantic and not having to worry about hurricanes for once!

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#20

08-16-2007, 11:49 PM

They never know where they're gonna go. When Rita hit here a couple years ago, everyone was predicting it would hit to the west on Houston. Last minute(literally the day of) it turned and wiped out South East Texas.

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#21

08-16-2007, 11:55 PM

Here's a graph showing the sharp turn Rita took
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005...graphics.shtml

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#22

08-16-2007, 11:56 PM

Originally posted by Martin3

They never know where they're gonna go. When Rita hit here a couple years ago, everyone was predicting it would hit to the west on Houston. Last minute(literally the day of) it turned and wiped out South East Texas.

i am concerned right now, but keeping an eye on it. If i were in Houston I would be really concerned. Everything right now has it pointing in your general direction. Sure its subject to change, but i rather not have the bullseye on me.

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#23

08-17-2007, 12:04 AM

Originally posted by will76

i am concerned right now, but keeping an eye on it. If i were in Houston I would be really concerned. Everything right now has it pointing in your general direction. Sure its subject to change, but i rather not have the bullseye on me.

I'm in Conroe a bit north of Houston, about 85 miles from the coast.

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#24

08-17-2007, 12:58 AM

Shit, both of my parents live in H-Town. Rita flooded my mom's house, it was bad, they have the house floor all tiled now after ripping up all the carpet and repairing the drywall. I sure hope they don't get hit again.

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#25

08-17-2007, 01:01 AM

I'm safely tucked away in earthquake territory

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#26

08-17-2007, 01:14 AM

Not at all.
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#27

08-17-2007, 01:32 AM

In corpus christy here, hoping it don't come this way.

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#28

08-17-2007, 03:43 AM

I would be pretty scared if that was coming my direction!!

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#29

08-17-2007, 03:55 AM

Originally posted by damian2001

I cant imagine what would happen if NO got hit by a 4 again - I did have a feeling it would a few days before Katrina hit - 3 days before in fact I said it was going to be huge...... If I am bored later I will look up my posts.

I have a spare room in the UK

Not much coz NO has pretty much been left as it is........so it really couldn't
do a whole of damage

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#30

08-17-2007, 04:14 AM

will are you in N'Awlins or the outer city? Im from there (here) moved back last year to help family recover and spend time with my mom and brothers, but dont plan on living here forever.

People need to remember that Katrina was a category 3 when she hit, it was NOT the STORM that did all that damage - it was the levee failure.

Katrina damage was MAN MADE. The storm itself was not that bad.

I sat on Grand Isle as a kid through storms worst than Katrina. Was stuck there for 2 weeks with no contact to my mom, and I was 10 or so way back in the 80s.

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#31

08-17-2007, 04:15 AM

and to answer your question - no, not worried, I didnt even know there was a Hurricane Dean and im in NOLA area too ;)

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#32

08-17-2007, 04:22 AM

Originally posted by Fletch XXX

People need to remember that Katrina was a category 3 when she hit, it was NOT the STORM that did all that damage - it was the levee failure.

Katrina damage was MAN MADE. The storm itself was not that bad.

I sat on Grand Isle as a kid through storms worst than Katrina. Was stuck there for 2 weeks with no contact to my mom, and I was 10 or so way back in the 80s.

Always thought Katrina was more than a Cat 3 Fletch - sure, must have been the effects of other elements. Hell I've done a Cat 3 and sat in they eye of the hurricane and had a drink and a cigar - it was not that bad!!

Dean is over the Leeward Isles now and Cat 2 - they are used to it and no biggie (that's the same place I tasted the Cat 3) - but - it's increasing in strength - where next?
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#33

08-17-2007, 04:23 AM

Originally posted by GreyWolf

Always thought Katrina was more than a Cat 3 Fletch -

when Katrina hit she was a 3. Remember after she hit everyone was reporting "all is well in the big easy" - then the levees failed.

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#34

08-17-2007, 04:26 AM

CNN

"Katrina was category 3, not 4"

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/12/2...ina/index.html

"When it slammed ashore on the Gulf Coast in August, Hurricane Katrina was a strong Category 3 storm, not a Category 4 as initially thought, the National Hurricane Center said Tuesday."

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#35

08-17-2007, 04:28 AM

Originally posted by Fletch XXX

when Katrina hit she was a 3. Remember after she hit everyone was reporting "all is well in the big easy" - then the levees failed.

Got ya! Shit - they are still not ready with reinforced levees. Just stay away from the levees if it comes your way
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#36

08-17-2007, 07:24 PM

Dean is now a cat 4 hurricane with sustained winds at 145mph
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#37

08-17-2007, 07:34 PM

Originally posted by Fletch XXX

will are you in N'Awlins or the outer city? Im from there (here) moved back last year to help family recover and spend time with my mom and brothers, but dont plan on living here forever.

People need to remember that Katrina was a category 3 when she hit, it was NOT the STORM that did all that damage - it was the levee failure.

Katrina damage was MAN MADE. The storm itself was not that bad.

I sat on Grand Isle as a kid through storms worst than Katrina. Was stuck there for 2 weeks with no contact to my mom, and I was 10 or so way back in the 80s.

and the levees failed because?
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#38

08-17-2007, 07:43 PM

Feeling some wind gusts here in Puerto Rico, but no rain. Aparently people have been traveling to the south part of the island (Ponce) to "Surf Dean" Jamaica is definately going to get it's ass kicked. Its already category 4 and its going to hit them right on target.

Last edited by teg0; 08-17-2007, 07:46 PM.
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#39

08-17-2007, 08:32 PM

Yes! I live in Texas near Houston.
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#40

08-17-2007, 10:07 PM

First death from Dean is in St Lucia

Hurricane Dean has strengthened to a category four "major" storm, pounding the eastern Caribbean with winds in excess of 215km/h (130 mph).

The US National Hurricane Center upgraded the storm as it moved towards Mexico, killing a man in St Lucia.

Tropical storm warnings are in place for the British and US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, St Kitts and Nevis, Anguilla and St Maarten and Grenada.

At 1745 GMT, the hurricane's centre was located about 280km (175 miles) west of Martinique, moving west at about 35km/h (22mph).

It's possible Dean could be upgraded to Cat 4 very shortly - if it hasn't happened already.
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#41

08-17-2007, 10:11 PM

PS My bad - already Cat 4

Last edited by GreyWolf; 08-17-2007, 10:12 PM.
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#42

08-17-2007, 10:11 PM

Glad I live in CO....

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#43

08-17-2007, 10:16 PM

Not too far from NOLA here, but a little inland so not worried. Who knows where it will go once it gets in the Gulf.
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#44

08-18-2007, 03:39 AM

Keeping an eye on it, I live in south east houston about a mile or two from galveston bay.

Funny though, a lot of people around here say they won't leave ... last time people evacuated they were stuck on the roads, all gas stations closed, no food or anything available, and a whole lot of heat.

Think I am out of here either once it hits the gulf and if it's def not going to mexico, or I am waiting until the very last second.

For Rita, a lot of people around here had to go all the way to Oklahoma just to get a hotel room.
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