do you think an Asteroid will hit Earth in the 21st century ?

MIAMI.- The U.S. space agency Nasa evokes Hollywood in effort to avoid catastrophe in a mission that would bridge gap between moon and Mars

It?s the stuff of nightmares and, until now, Hollywood thrillers. A huge asteroid is on a catastrophic collision course with Earth and mankind is poised to go the way of the dinosaurs.

So to save the day, Nasa now plans to go where only Bruce Willis has gone before. The US space agency is drawing up plans to land an astronaut on an asteroid hurtling through space at more than 30,000 mph. It wants to know whether humans could master techniques needed to deflect such a doomsday object when it is eventually identified.

Though the proposals are at an early stage, and a spacecraft needed just to send an astronaut that far into space exists only on the drawing board, they are deadly serious. A smallish asteroid called Apophis has already been identified as a possible threat to Earth in 2036.

Nasa?s Chris McKay, of the Johnson Space Centre in Houston told the website Space.com: ``There's a lot of public resonance with the notion that Nasa ought to be doing something about killer asteroids ... to be able to send serious equipment to an asteroid.?

It is certain that events in space will cause life on Earth to come to an end. The certain events, however, will happen at an extremely long timescale measured in billions of years. Projections indicate that the Andromeda Galaxy is on a collision course with the Milky Way. Impact is predicted in about 3 billion years, and so Andromeda will approach at an average speed of about 140 kilometres (87 miles) per second; the two galaxies will probably merge to form a giant elliptical. This merging could eject the solar system in a more eccentric orbit[citation needed] and an unwanted position in the merged galaxy causing our planet to become uninhabitable (an actual collision is unnecessary)[citation needed]. In about 5 billion years, stellar evolution predicts our sun will exhaust its core hydrogen and become a red giant. In so doing, it will become thousands of times more luminous.[3] Even in its current phase of stellar evolution, the sun is increasing in luminosity (at a very slow rate). Many scientists predict that in fewer than one billion years, the runaway greenhouse effect will make Earth unsuitable for life.

On an even longer time scale, the universe may come to an end. The current age of the universe is estimated as being 13.8 billion years old in 2007. There are several competing theories as to the nature of our universe and how it will end, but in all cases, there will be no life possible. These scenarios take place on a considerably longer timescale than the expanding of the sun.


[edit] Meteorite impact
In the history of the Earth, it is widely accepted that several large meteorites have hit Earth. The Cretaceous-Tertiary asteroid, for example, is theorized to have caused the extinction of the dinosaurs. If such an object struck the Earth it could have a serious impact on civilization. It's even possible that humanity would be completely destroyed: for this, the asteroid would need to be at least 1 km (0.6 miles) in diameter, but probably between 3?10 km (2?6 miles).[4] Asteroids with a 1 km diameter impact the Earth every 0.5 million years[4] on average. Larger asteroids are more rare. The last large (>10 km) impact happened 65 million years ago. So-called Near-Earth asteroids are regularly being observed.

Some scientists believe there are patterns in the number of meteorites hitting Earth. An interesting explanation of such a pattern is given by the hypothetical star Nemesis. This hypothesis states that a star named Nemesis regularly passes through a denser part of the Oort cloud, causing meteorite rains to collide onto Earth. However, the very existence of this pattern is not widely accepted, and the existence of the Nemesis star is highly controversial.

A star passage that will cause an increase of meteorites is the arrival of a star called Gliese 710. This star is probably moving on a collision course with the Solar System and will likely be at a distance 1.1 light years from the Sun in 1.4 million years. Some models predict that this will send large amounts of comets from the Oort cloud to the Earth.[5] Other models, such as the one by García-Sánchez, predict an increase of only 5%.


[edit] Less likely cosmic threats
A number of other scenarios have been suggested. A Black Hole could enter the solar system.[6] If this happened, the result would be catastrophic. Another threat might come from Gamma ray bursts; some scientists believe this may have caused mass extinction 450 million years ago.[7] Both are very unlikely.[2] Still others see Extraterrestrial life as a possible threat to mankind;[8] although alien life has never been found, scientists such as Carl Sagan have postulated that the existence of extraterrestrial life is very likely. Even NASA sterilizes items returning from space to kill any potential extraterrestrial life forms that might threaten humanity, like viruses. Scientists consider such a scenario technically possible, but unlikely.[9]


[edit] Earth
In the history of the Earth, many ice ages have occurred. More ice ages will almost certainly come at an interval of 40,000?100,000 years. This would have a serious impact on civilization as we know it today, because vast areas of land (mainly in North-America and Europe) could become uninhabitable. It would still be possible to live in the tropical regions, but with possible loss of humidity/water.

A less predictable scenario is a global pandemic. For example, if HIV mutates and becomes as transmissible as the common cold, the consequences would be disastrous, but probably not fatal to the human species,[10] as some people are immune to HIV.[11] This particular scenario would also contradict the observable tendency for pathogens to become less fatal over time as a natural function of biological pressure.

Another possibility is the megatsunami. A megatsunami could, for example, destroy the entire east coast of the United States of America (see La Palma). The coastal areas of the entire world could be flooded in case of the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.[12] While none of these scenarios could possibly destroy humanity completely, they could regionally threaten civilization as we know it.

When the supervolcano at Yellowstone last erupted, 600,000 years ago, the magma and ash covered roughly all of the area of North America west of the Mississippi river. Another such eruption could threaten civilization. Such an eruption could also release large amounts of gases that could alter the balance of the planet's carbon dioxide and cause a runaway greenhouse effect, or enough pyroclastic debris and other material may be thrown into the atmosphere to partially block out the sun and cause a natural nuclear winter, similar to 1816, the Year Without A Summer.


[edit] Humanity
Probably the biggest threat for humanity comes from humanity itself.[13] The scenario that has been explored most is a nuclear war or another weapon with similar possibilities. It is difficult to predict whether it would exterminate humanity, but very certainly could alter civilization as we know it, in particular if there was a nuclear winter event.[14]

Another category of disasters are unforeseen consequences of technology. It has been suggested that learning computers take unforeseen actions or that robots would out-compete humanity.[15] Biotechnology could lead to the creation of a pandemic, Nanotechnology could lead to grey goo - in both cases, either deliberately or by accident.[16] It has also been suggested that physical scientists might accidentally create a device that could destroy the earth and the solar system.[17] In string theory, there are some unknown variables. If those turn out to have an unfortunate value, the universe may not be stable and alter completely, destroying everything in it,[18] either at random or by an accidental experiment. This is called Quantum Vacuum Collapse by some.[19] Another kind of accident is the Ice-9 Type Transition, in which our planet including everything on it becomes a strange matter planet in a chain reaction. Some do not view this as a credible scenario.[20]

It has been suggested that runaway global warming might cause the climate on Earth to become like Venus, which would make it uninhabitable. In less extreme scenarios it could cause the end of civilization as we know it.[21]

Other scenarios that have been named are:

Antibiotic resistance. Natural selection would create super bacteria that are resistant to antibiotics, devastating the world population and causing a global collapse of civilization.[citation needed]
Demography. Demographic trends create a "baby bust" that threatens the order of civilization as we know it.[22]
Mutual assured destruction A full scale Nuclear war could kill billions, and the resulting Nuclear fallout effectively crush any form of civilization.
Dysgenics. A lack of natural selection and the tendency of the more intelligent to have fewer children would lower the average health and intelligence enough to lead to an eventual collapse of civilization, associated with controversial eugenics theories.[23]
Ecology. Natural resources are used up, or the environment is so damaged through pollution and destruction that civilization fails.[citation needed]
Finance. Markets fail worldwide, resulting in economic collapse: mass unemployment, rioting, famine, and death.[citation needed]
Infertility. Human fertility continues to decline, eventually ending with no fertile humans left to continue the species.[citation needed]
Gray Goo. Out-of-control self-replicating robots consume all living matter on Earth while building more of themselves.[citation needed]
Overpopulation. World population may increase to such an extent in the future that it would lead to lack of space for habitation.[citation needed]
Peak oil. Oil runs out before an economically viable replacement is devised, leading to global chaos.[24]
Quantum energy. In the search for new quantum particles, scientists accidentally destroy the universe. This, however, is highly unlikely; a Chernobyl style disaster is much more possible.[citation needed]
Telomere. Some researchers theorize a tiny loss of telomere length from one generation to the next, mirroring the process of aging in individuals. Over thousands of generations the telomere erodes down to its critical level. Once at the critical level we would expect to see outbreaks of age-related diseases occurring earlier in life and finally a population crash.

A near earth Object (NEO) does not need to be large to devastate. One the size of a small garage would annihilate a large city. One big enough to leave a 10km crater, still nowhere near the size of the biggest (there is a 300km crater on Earth), would have the destructive force of every one of the world's 10,000 nuclear warhead combined.

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How often is Earth hit by an asteroid?

More frequently than you may think. An incident like Tunguska occurs approximately once per every hundred years. Smaller ones, but easily big enough to take out a large city, occur at least 3 times per century, for example Brazil in 1930. While most of the recent recorded impacts have happened in places that were barely inhabited, we won't always be that lucky. If the Tunguska event had happened over the city of New York it would have been nearly leveled.

A collision is certain, capable of causing localized destruction for an impact over land or possibly a tsunami if close offshore. Such events occur on average between once per 50 years and once per several 1000 years.

What size NEOs are dangerous?

The Earth's atmosphere protects us from most NEOs smaller than a modest office building (40 m diameter, or impact energy of about 3 megatons). From this size up to about 1 km diameter, an impacting NEO can do tremendous damage on a local scale. Above an energy of a million megatons (diameter about 2 km), an impact will produce severe environmental damage on a global scale. The probable consequence would be an "impact winter" with loss of crops worldwide and subsequent starvation and disease. Still larger impacts can cause mass extinctions, like the one that ended the age of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago (15 km diameter and about 100 million megatons).


How many NEOs exist?

There are many more small NEOs than large ones. Astronomers estimate that there are approximately 1100 Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) larger than 1 km in diameter, and more than a million larger than 40 m in diameter (the approximate threshold for penetration through the Earth's atmosphere).

Are any NEOs predicted to hit the Earth?

As of the end of 2004, astronomers had discovered more than two thirds of the larger Near Earth Asteroids (diameter greater than 1 km). None of the known asteroids is a threat, but we have no way of predicting the next impact from an unknown object.

What is the risk of impacts?

We don't know when the next NEO impact will take place, but we can calculate the odds. Statistically, the greatest danger is from an NEO with about 1 million megatons energy (roughly 2 km in diameter). On average, one of these collides with the Earth once or twice per million years, producing a global catastrophe that would kill a substantial (but unknown) fraction of the Earth's human population. Reduced to personal terms, this means that you have about one chance in 40,000 of dying as a result of a collision.

How much warning will we have?

With so many of even the larger NEOs remaining undiscovered, the most likely warning today would be zero -- the first indication of a collision would be the flash of light and the shaking of the ground as it hit.

What about smaller, more frequent impacts?

The Spaceguard Survey and most associated search and tracking programs are concentrating on NEAs larger than 1 km in diameter -- large enough to risk a global ecological catastrophe if one of them hit the Earth. But there are many more smaller undiscovered NEAs, and we are likely to be hit somewhere on Earth by one of these, with an energy equivalent to a large nuclear bomb, sometime in the next couple of centuries. The last such impact was in 1908 in Tunguska ( Siberia ) with an estimated explosive energy of 15 megatons. In 2003 NASA completed a study of these sub-km impacts and concluded that it was both technically feasible and cost-effective to to mount an expanded Spaceguard Survey, with much larger telescopes, to search for these smaller asteroids.

HONOLULU - NASA astronaut Edward Lu is campaigning for a new spacecraft that would divert asteroids on a path to slam into Earth.

The small space tractor, costing between $200 million and $300 million, would hover near an asteroid to exert enough gravitational pull that the space rock's orbit would change and a collision with our planet would be averted, Lu told an audience at the University of Hawaii-Manoa Monday night.

"We're only trying to get a really tiny change in the velocity of the asteroid to prevent an impact," said Lu, a former University of Hawaii solar physicist.

Lu was part of a panel including three Hawaii scientists who characterized the chances of an asteroid colliding with Earth as rare but deserving of the same level of attention as major earthquakes, tsunamis and hurricanes.

The asteroid Apophis will pass within about 20,000 miles of Earth on Friday, April 13, 2029.

"It's going to come so close to the Earth in 2029 that its orbit will change, and it might change enough so that it comes back and hits us in 2036," said Hawaii planetary scientist David Tholen, who discovered Apophis.

New Delhi, Sept. 25: An asteroid three football fields wide might crash into Earth in 2036 seven years after whizzing past the planet closer than some satellites in orbit, a US space scientist said today.

If the asteroid named Apophis passes a specific, small region of space during its close fly-by in 2029, it will return to impact Earth in 2036, said William Ailor, director of the Centre for Orbital and Re-entry Studies with the Aerospace Corporation.

In this small region of space that scientists compare to a ?keyhole?, Earth?s gravity will perturb the asteroid?s trajectory such that the subsequent encounter in 2036 would lead to an impact.

The chance of such an impact is currently predicted to be 1 in 45,000, Ailor said in a talk on Earth-threatening asteroids at the International Astronautical Congress, 2007, in Hyderabad.

?It?s not a civilisation-ender, but if it does strike, it?ll cause significant damage. People alive today ? young people in schools and colleges ? are going to see it go by or will have to deal with it,? Ailor told The Telegraph in an interview.

Further observations of Apophis in 2012 and 2013 will allow scientists to recalculate the chance of an impact.

?The probability of impact could go up or come down,? Ailor said.

In 2029, Apophis will get closer than some geostationary satellites parked about 37,000km above Earth. A realisation at that time that it will impact in seven years would give scientists too little time to prepare, Ailor said

Over the past eight years, a concerted search has helped find 90 per cent of the asteroids 1km and larger ? the civilisation-killers. ?But we have yet to find some 20,000 objects between 300 metres and 140 metres,? Ailor said