I've been thinking about mobile for the past 8 years.
Many of the obstacles from 8 years ago are cleared now. But there are still some that can't be cleared and here is my opinion:
I will be turning 48 in Nov. In just the last 6 months my ability to see small things has decreased to the point that I now use over the counter reading glasses just to be able to type this.
I went to the eye doctor about 4 months ago asking what is wrong with me. He gave me a full examination and explained that I have perfect vision. BUT...EVERYBODY in the world has hardening of the lenses in the eyes as they age. It can happen in your 30's, 40's or 50's but regardless...it's gonna happen.
I can no longer read the date on a coin without putting on these $10 reading glasses. And I had to make the fonts a size 14 on my damn Blackberry Storm and I still have to strain to read them.
So...since most people with any real money or inclination to purchase porn are gonna be middle-aged men...I never see the mobile porn experience being as big as the "desktop" experience.
I do however think it's gonna be a big hit with younger guys. But not a "Most Of Your Traffic Will Be Mobile" situation.
And if it ever did go that way...won't all the guys who invested in HD and all of our high end resolution cameras feel awfully foolish?
We coulda all just kept shooting mpegs at 360 x 240 and been GODS