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spunkmaster

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Oops - Obama and McCain now Tied

10-23-2008, 09:14 PM

IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Eleven

Posted: Thursday, October 23, 2008

McCain has cut into Obama's lead for a second day and is now just 1.1 points behind. The spread was 3.7 Wednesday and 6.0 Tuesday. The Republican is making headway with middle- and working- class voters, and has surged 10 points in two days among those earning between $30,000 and $75,000. He has also gone from an 11-point deﬁcit to a 9-point lead among Catholics.
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seeric

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#2

10-23-2008, 09:16 PM

theres 100s of polls

none of them match up.

ive given up on pollls
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#3

10-23-2008, 09:25 PM

I don't think any single poll is reliable enough because they all have some sampling bias. For example the recent AP poll was weighted incorrectly because it polled an unrepresentative amount of evangelicals, which tends to favor Republicans. It's probably best to take the average spread of polls like on http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

The polls are just general snapshots. I guess the polls that really matter are the state-by-state polls because it's whoever gets enough electoral votes that counts.

People are saying it'll be a landslide. It may or may not be. I suspect Obama will win some battleground states but also lose some. Being ahead within the margin of error means it could tip either way. One thing that seems to be playing in Obama's favor are reports of record Democratic turnout among early voters.
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#4

10-23-2008, 09:32 PM

Silly republicans, good luck Nov 4th.

IBD/TIPP has John McCain ahead 74%-22% among 18-24 year olds.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
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#5

10-23-2008, 09:40 PM

Originally posted by Mike33

I don't think any single poll is reliable enough because they all have some sampling bias. For example the recent AP poll was weighted incorrectly because it polled an unrepresentative amount of evangelicals, which tends to favor Republicans. It's probably best to take the average spread of polls like on http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

The polls are just general snapshots. I guess the polls that really matter are the state-by-state polls because it's whoever gets enough electoral votes that counts.

People are saying it'll be a landslide. It may or may not be. I suspect Obama will win some battleground states but also lose some. Being ahead within the margin of error means it could tip either way. One thing that seems to be playing in Obama's favor are reports of record Democratic turnout among early voters.

i've seen so many that put mccain winning by 20 or more points. so ludicrous.

shit, fox news big boy poll had him winning 87% to 13%

haha

edit: also don't forget about the shady voting machines that they are already fnding that vote for mccain when people press obama on the touch screen.

Last edited by seeric; 10-23-2008, 09:41 PM.
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#6

10-23-2008, 09:42 PM

Originally posted by A1R3K

i've seen so many that put mccain winning by 20 or more points. so ludicrous.

shit, fox news big boy poll had him winning 87% to 13%

haha

edit: also don't forget about the shady voting machines that they are already fnding that vote for mccain when people press obama on the touch screen.

Yeah.. Fox's poll was the one I was going to mention... according to them McCain won every single debate by a wide margin...

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#7

10-23-2008, 09:48 PM

Originally posted by ThunderBalls

Silly republicans, good luck Nov 4th.

IBD/TIPP has John McCain ahead 74%-22% among 18-24 year olds.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

That says it all lol
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#8

10-23-2008, 09:50 PM

You really have to look at the average of all the polls to get a clear picture. The spread right now is Obama +7

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#9

10-23-2008, 09:54 PM

Maybe people are realizing he is a piece of shit, and shouldn't be president..
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#10

10-23-2008, 09:57 PM

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#11

10-23-2008, 10:03 PM

Oabama will take it
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#12

10-23-2008, 10:06 PM

Originally posted by spunkmaster

IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Eleven

Posted: Thursday, October 23, 2008

McCain has cut into Obama's lead for a second day and is now just 1.1 points behind. The spread was 3.7 Wednesday and 6.0 Tuesday. The Republican is making headway with middle- and working- class voters, and has surged 10 points in two days among those earning between $30,000 and $75,000. He has also gone from an 11-point deﬁcit to a 9-point lead among Catholics.

Of course McCain supporters believe this crap. If you have ONE poll, saying one thing, and 100 others saying another which one is more likely to be right?
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#13

10-23-2008, 10:30 PM

Originally posted by GatorB

Of course McCain supporters believe this crap. If you have ONE poll, saying one thing, and 100 others saying another which one is more likely to be right?

Well all of the other polls must have a liberal bias

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spunkmaster

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#14

10-23-2008, 11:13 PM

IBD/TIPP was the most accurate in 2004 and 2006 !
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#15

10-23-2008, 11:14 PM

we will see in 1 1/2 weeks
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10-23-2008, 11:16 PM
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#17

10-23-2008, 11:37 PM

Originally posted by ThunderBalls

Silly republicans, good luck Nov 4th.

IBD/TIPP has John McCain ahead 74%-22% among 18-24 year olds.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Yeah, that demographic just floods the polling places.

I have a question for whomever wants to answer: what percentage of registered voters do you anticipate showing up to actually vote?
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#18

10-24-2008, 12:26 AM

Originally posted by baddog

Yeah, that demographic just floods the polling places.

I have a question for whomever wants to answer: what percentage of registered voters do you anticipate showing up to actually vote?

It was 64% in 2004 and 60% in 2000. I think it will get close to 70% this year. The competitive primaries on both ends registered a ton of new voters. The primaries saw huge turnouts and I think a lot of people feel vested in the election.

And I think 18-24 will be surprising. It was up over 50% in the primaries, and Obama has some crazy get out the vote operations. It puts Kerry and Gore to shame. If the general election is up as much as the primary was, it puts 18-24 year olds in line with the national average.

Then again, if the polls keep going the way they're going, there may be more people on both sides just staying home this year.
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#19

10-24-2008, 12:30 AM

Originally posted by spunkmaster

The whole "Democrats are going to hand out the taxpayer money" knock doesn't quite have the same steam when Republicans just gave out trillions to financial institutions, insurance companies, and banks.
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#20

10-24-2008, 12:39 AM

Originally posted by pocketkangaroo

The whole "Democrats are going to hand out the taxpayer money" knock doesn't quite have the same steam when Republicans just gave out trillions to financial institutions, insurance companies, and banks.

Don't the dems control congress and the senate ?
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#21

10-24-2008, 12:40 AM

Originally posted by spunkmaster

Don't the dems control congress and the senate ?

Yes, but what does that have to do with the Treasury?
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pocketkangaroo

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#22

10-24-2008, 01:08 AM

And to those who forgot, the free market capitalist Republicans gave hundreds of billions (some estimations have it at a trillion) to AIG, Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac. A cute little stealth bailout of Countrywide. They also will pick up the tab for about $20 billion of Washington Mutual's bad debt. We are also on the hook for parts of Wachovia.

Who is the party that's been passing out our taxpayers money like candy again?
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#23

10-24-2008, 01:10 AM

nah, republicans are still pretty much behind. Every commentator on TV says that.

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#24

10-24-2008, 01:39 AM

no way, Obama is up by 10 points... give or take a few with margin for error.. I've been watchin this like a hawk.. its gonna be all democrat.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081024/..._politics_poll

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#25

10-24-2008, 01:46 AM

OOops Obama and McCain still both blow cock now...
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#26

10-24-2008, 03:13 AM

Originally posted by spunkmaster

IBD/TIPP was the most accurate in 2004 and 2006 !

Serioulsy 74% of young people are for McCain? Come on.
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#27

10-24-2008, 03:14 AM

Originally posted by pocketkangaroo

Yes, but what does that have to do with the Treasury?

Yeah for the last 21 months. You think you can fix 12 years of republican control in 21 months? Especailly when you still of a dipshit republican in the Whitehouse?
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#28

10-24-2008, 03:17 AM

Originally posted by spunkmaster

Do you believe that? God you are fucking stupid. Please don't vote. In fact kill yourself and rid the world of your ingorance. Hey Einstien where is the money going to come from so McCain can give everyone a $5000 check for health insurance? He's either going to have to borrow it from the Chinese or tax the wealthy
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#29

10-24-2008, 03:23 AM

Originally posted by spunkmaster

hehehehe, funny
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#30

10-24-2008, 04:31 AM

I only trust Gallup.

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#31

10-24-2008, 04:58 AM
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#32

10-24-2008, 05:22 AM

Originally posted by spunkmaster

Don't the dems control congress and the senate ?

yes, every negative thing is one way or the other always the dems fault no matter who is in office
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#33

10-24-2008, 05:27 AM

Absolutely everyone I have heard talk about this election is for Obama.

From rednecks, to green card holders, old people, military, catholics, all of them.

So its going to be very scary if he doesn't win.
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#34

10-24-2008, 06:54 AM

Why dont they just take it a step further and say that Mccain is ahead by 10 pts. The bigger the lie the more believeable it will be to the sheep.

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#35

10-24-2008, 07:06 AM

Originally posted by pocketkangaroo

Then again, if the polls keep going the way they're going, there may be more people on both sides just staying home this year.

I think the biggest danger for Obama at the moment is how many people think he's a lock and they decide to stay at home instead. McCain supporters are probably a little more likely to turnout and vote because of whatever kink they have on certain topics (abortion, conservative judges, etc, etc).

As for this thread, poll numbers are just generally ridiculous to follow, because a poll doesn't represent what happens once the curtain is drawn and no one can see who you're voting for and I think the race is a lot closer than people think at the moment.

Obama should be sure to stress the fact that people need to go vote and not just assume he's going to win.

See Sig...oh wait.
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#36

10-24-2008, 07:10 AM

Originally posted by man blast in your face

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#37

10-24-2008, 07:17 AM

Originally posted by cherrylula

Absolutely everyone I have heard talk about this election is for Obama.

From rednecks, to green card holders, old people, military, catholics, all of them.

So its going to be very scary if he doesn't win.

I hear many people that are against Obama, most of my friends own businesses.....

so I guess you're only hearing half of the people in the country (according to all the polls...

I wonder why that is...........?

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#38

10-24-2008, 07:19 AM

Originally posted by man blast in your face

LOL thats a coffee spitter!

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Drake

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#39

10-24-2008, 07:22 AM

Originally posted by cherrylula

Absolutely everyone I have heard talk about this election is for Obama.

From rednecks, to green card holders, old people, military, catholics, all of them.

So its going to be very scary if he doesn't win.

If the media said it's a done deal, they have nothing to report. Somebody else on the board previously said something like 'it's pretty amazing how every election is almost a 50/50 split and supposedly decided by less than 200,000 people in a country of over 300 million'.
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#40

10-24-2008, 07:22 AM

I love the whole "spreading the tax payer's money around" thing.... it's such a terribly evil thing that Americans would NOT vote for a candidate that would actually spend the tax payer's money on the tax payers.

Most other top countries all have welfare systems, health care and other tax paid programs and strangely enough, aren't evil. They are even democratic. Shocking I know.
But if the US actually used tax payer money on the tax payers, that would be disastrous.

No, it's much smarter to just keep borrowing more money. Spend the tax payer's money on war and more military. Borrow money to bail out billionaires who screwed up. And let the tax payer have their lower taxes so that they'll vote for you. They'll go broke within 4 years and have no unemployment or welfare to fall back on and when they get sick, they're screwed, but hell, their taxes didn't go up 1% so they'll vote for you!

Brilliant.

Last edited by StuartD; 10-24-2008, 07:23 AM.

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#41

10-24-2008, 07:30 AM

Originally posted by GatorB

Of course McCain supporters believe this crap. If you have ONE poll, saying one thing, and 100 others saying another which one is more likely to be right?

Of course the "one" poll because it's a Maverick.

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#42

10-24-2008, 07:32 AM

Everything our government uses our collective money for is spread among the people anyway. The horror. And how about the tax rebate gimmicks used twice by Bush? Literal spreading of the wealth to the taxpayers, lol. Oop, I mean errrrr.. stimulus package. The whole issue is doy.

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#43

10-24-2008, 07:33 AM

Originally posted by sperbonzo

I hear many people that are against Obama, most of my friends own businesses.....

so I guess you're only hearing half of the people in the country (according to all the polls...

I wonder why that is...........?

Your friends won't be benefiting from McCain being president unless your friends run billion dollar businesses.

you don't know you're wearing a leash if you sit by the peg all day..
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#44

10-24-2008, 07:37 AM

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#45

10-24-2008, 07:51 AM

Originally posted by kesha1

nah, republicans are still pretty much behind. Every commentator on TV says that.

You mean Republicans are getting a handful of behind, anyone else see this pic come out this week, I think we see why McCain picked Palin - baby got back:

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#46

10-24-2008, 07:56 AM

Originally posted by BlackCrayon

Your friends won't be benefiting from McCain being president unless your friends run billion dollar businesses.

With Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and Barack Obama running things.....

Believe me, MY friends that own business KNOW what that means....even if you don't.

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#47

10-24-2008, 07:56 AM

Originally posted by jimmy-3-way

You mean Republicans are getting a handful of behind, anyone else see this pic come out this week, I think we see why McCain picked Palin - baby got back:

Bad but funny photochop

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#48

10-24-2008, 07:58 AM

Originally posted by StuartD

Bad but funny photochop

It's only bad because we all know how stubby his arms are.

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#49

10-24-2008, 08:06 AM

Originally posted by BlackCrayon

Your friends won't be benefiting from McCain being president unless your friends run billion dollar businesses.

Yes because McCain is only for the rich guy, and Obama is clearly for the little guy..
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#50

10-24-2008, 08:15 AM

Originally posted by stickyfingerz

Yes because McCain is only for the rich guy, and Obama is clearly for the little guy..

I don't think any politicians are truly for the little guy but what is McCain going to do for the "little guy"? We've all heard what Obama "claims" he is going to do but McCain doesn't have much to say.

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