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I think it will likely have a massive effect, though it will take time. Whilst people can easily point out many TLDs that have failed to launch, there are a couple which have hit a market. .tv for instance now gets heavy promotion on television, and many shows, etc use a .tv domain as their primary domain. Whilst .biz .info, etc have indeed failed to take off, I think with time you will see a greater acceptance of domains outside of .com.
I imagine .tv will continue to grow as the official television domain, and I can see other decent ones like .law .xxx .kids, etc growing in their respective field. May take another 15 years, but when people start noticing all these different TLD's for legitimate websites (be it a law firm under .law, a travel site under .travel, etc) showing up in google .com's dominance will start to weaken.
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