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Originally Posted by CaveCreek_Russell
This scares me as well. The chain reaction that could be involved in a war between Iran and Israel. Other Arab nations could decide to declare war on Israel in retaliation, and Iran might decide on attacking US troops in Iraq and Afghanistan instead of going directly for Israel.
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Bit of a misunderstanding, outside of fellow Shia Iran doesn't have much influence. The Taliban / Al Qaeda (and basically every Arab nation) have just as much hatred for Shia as they do for Israel (well ok maybe not that much, but close). What will happen is we will foot a massive bill in the form of oil (as someone already mentioned) it would likely head towards the $300 barrier, I have no doubt Iran will take extreme actions in that respect.
Militarily wise Iran has been positioning itself for years now with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Al Sadr in Iraq (the two places outside of Iran where large populations of Shia exist). They know militarily they can't match Israel and the US, but these two militant guerrilla groups can sure cause a lot of fucking trouble. The immediate reaction will be that Al Sadr, etc in Iraq will spill a lot of American blood, for the most part the Shia in Iraq have held back waiting for the US to leave knowing that they will control the parliament when they do and essentially pursue their Islamic revolution that way. Should the US support Israel (and of course AIPAC will make sure of that) in this endeavor against Iran I've no doubt they will send Iraq into a greater chaos than has ever existed there, even greater than the previous peaks in violence - and of course the Sunni Al Qaeda type will jump in with car bombings etc to further destabilize the whole situation.
In Lebanon it is a bit different. Although Hezbollah undoubtedly controls the state, it also tries to position itself favorably with all other parties and sects in the country. Lebanon has been torn apart for decades fighting other peoples wars and there is little tolerance for it now. So I can't see Hezbollah initiating a war with Israel on Iran's behalf directly, though I would not be suprirsed if one of the smaller Shia militia's does something crazy (no doubt with Nasrallah's support) that brings Israel against Lebanon and than allows Hezbollah to unload the real high tech weapons Iran has been supplying it with - and no they are not katyusha's.
Now some words of wisdom:
"I should much rather see reasonable agreement with the Arabs on the basis of living together in peace than the creation of a Jewish state. Apart from practical consideration, my awareness of the essential nature of Judaism resists the idea of a Jewish state with borders, an army, and a measure of temporal power no matter how modest. I am afraid of the inner damage Judaism will sustain -- especially from the development of a narrow nationalism within our own ranks, against which we have already had to fight strongly, even without a Jewish state." [1] Albert Einstein (1938).