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I think either of them can win. I think they both have hills to climb, but I feel McCain's hill is a little larger. They both have personal issues to get over as the country gets to know them, who they are and what they stand for. They both have issues as well. McCain however has the albatross of his party around his neck. Bush has sucked as president and the republican let government has drove us into huge debt and brought about a couple of recessions (remember we had a small recession in 2000-2001 that the artificially inflated housing market helped pull us out of then eventually its collapse helped pull us into the current one. We are mired in a war we can't seem to win and the dollar is falling into the shitter. He has to convince the independent voters that he can fix these things and that he won't just stay the course. That will be a big hill for him to climb.
So can he win? Sure. Will he win? I give him about a 40% chance of doing so.
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