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Originally Posted by Mike33
I don't know why some people are so confident in their predictions the election. Who would have predicted Obama would have even gotten this far? And in spite of the odds, it is still possible for Hillary to clinch it. Look at McCain - he wasn't even on the radar and yet eventually won the Republican nomination handily. His ascension was remarkable and he won without being able to raise much money.
There is no clear or obvious winner. Any candidate could win. Voters are coming out in record numbers. Some of them want a change from the current administration; others are concerned about what that change will be. There are race, gender, and age cards at play. Each candidate has skeletons in their closets that they want to distance themselves from. And nobody knows what new gaffes will be made or what new dirt will be dug up in the coming months. It's wide open as far as I can tell.
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100% correct.
9 months ago everyone assumed Rudy Giuliani would win the nomination for the republicans and would be nearly impossible to beat in the general election. Rudy was barely a blip on the radar. Then there was the coming of Fred Thomson and everyone said he was the guy. And he fell flat on his face. McCain nearly ran out of money but somehow managed to pull it off and came out of nowhere to do it. the same with Obama. 9 months ago everyone assumed it was Hillary and she had no real challengers. The only reason she is still in it is because of the way the democrats do their primary. If it were like the Republicans where the winner takes all of the delegates for a state she would have been gone a while ago. Obama, like McCain came out of nowhere.
It really is a good match-up. You have McCain, the rich white guy who has been in Washington forever against the young, upstart black guy who is preaching change. The choice becomes pretty clear. Are you happy with how things are and where they are headed? If so then vote for McCain. If you want something different, vote Obama.
There is no way to know if either will be a good president or not. Experience is only a small part of it. There have been very experienced people that got in the White House and fell on their faces and there have been people with very little experience that have done well. And vice versa. Everyone says that the republicans will pile dirt on Obama, and they will. But he hasn't been around that long so there is not as much dirt as normal and much of it has already come out. McCain has been around forever and has a ton of dirt that can get tossed. If the mud starts to fly and the democrats actually grow a spine and fight back McCain could get buried in that game.
I think it will be a very close race and I have no idea who will win. November is a long ways away and a lot could happen one way or the other so to assume McCain will win easily now is a pretty misguided prediction.