GoFuckYourself.com - Adult Webmaster Forum - View Single Post - Seriously, what's wrong with the Democratic Party?

kane · 04-04-2008, 11:44 PM

This election so far has had nothing but surprises. 9 months ago it was all but a forgone conclusion that Rudy would be president. 6 months ago it looked like Hilary was untouchable and could maybe challenge Rudy. Now Rudy is long gone and Hilary is clawing to stay alive. Anything could happen. I think nobody saw McCain winning and nobody gave Obama much of a chance either.

That all said here is how I see it playing out.

Obama wins the nomination. Hilary is all but done right now. Even if she sweeps the remaining primaries she would have to win by a huge margin just to take the delegate lead. That's not going to happen. Whoever wins or loses in these states it will be close. Obama will go into the convention with more delegates and a lead in the popular vote and in the end the superdelegates will pick him. They know if they pick Hilary it will fracture the party and she will have no chance of winning.

Obama goes into the general election against McCain. All of the stuff brought up by Hilary against Obama now really will mean nothing. People have short memories and they will never remember in November what happened back in March and April. McCain will play the homeland security card. He is the warrior and will try to play the card the way Bush did by convincing the people that he is the one who can keep them safe. Neither of them really have much of a domestic agenda so if Obama can come up with something he could counter with that. Obama has talked tough about terrorism and he has said he would end the war in Iraq. More than 70% of the people no longer approve of the war in Iraq. Taking the stance that he will end it will get him some votes.

McCain can't sling that much mud for fear of the avalanche that will fall on him. Obama is a newbie. He has a few skeletons in his closet, but McCain has spend decades in politics and those ghosts will be making a return. Obama may have an ant hill of dirt that could be tossed on him, but McCain undoubtably has a mountian. Historically the democrats have been pussies and not fought back when challenged by the republicans. The Clintons fought back and won. If Obama does the same he can to. People want to see that their president is someone that will defend himself. Obama can overcome the security issue by showing he has a plan to keep people safe and to help with economy. McCain will be tainted by the failure of Bush and you can bet Obama won't let people forget how often McCain supported Bush. If McCain slings mud and Obama returns the favor McCain will spend most of the election defending his past positions, votes, deals etc ala John Kerry.

All said and done when you add in the potential lack of mud slinging, the fact that the hard conservative right may not fully support McCain, the republican backlash we are in the middle of and the fact that Obama is a rock star that people love to hear and want to believe in it ends with Obama wining a very close election.

Then again Bush could catch Bin Laden, there could be a turn for the better in Iraq and the economy could be stabilizing and then McCain would probably crush him. Obama needs things to be bad so he can sell change. If things are good. McCain can convince people to trust him.

04-04-2008, 11:44 PM
kane Too lazy to set a custom title Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: portland, OR Posts: 20,684	This election so far has had nothing but surprises. 9 months ago it was all but a forgone conclusion that Rudy would be president. 6 months ago it looked like Hilary was untouchable and could maybe challenge Rudy. Now Rudy is long gone and Hilary is clawing to stay alive. Anything could happen. I think nobody saw McCain winning and nobody gave Obama much of a chance either. That all said here is how I see it playing out. Obama wins the nomination. Hilary is all but done right now. Even if she sweeps the remaining primaries she would have to win by a huge margin just to take the delegate lead. That's not going to happen. Whoever wins or loses in these states it will be close. Obama will go into the convention with more delegates and a lead in the popular vote and in the end the superdelegates will pick him. They know if they pick Hilary it will fracture the party and she will have no chance of winning. Obama goes into the general election against McCain. All of the stuff brought up by Hilary against Obama now really will mean nothing. People have short memories and they will never remember in November what happened back in March and April. McCain will play the homeland security card. He is the warrior and will try to play the card the way Bush did by convincing the people that he is the one who can keep them safe. Neither of them really have much of a domestic agenda so if Obama can come up with something he could counter with that. Obama has talked tough about terrorism and he has said he would end the war in Iraq. More than 70% of the people no longer approve of the war in Iraq. Taking the stance that he will end it will get him some votes. McCain can't sling that much mud for fear of the avalanche that will fall on him. Obama is a newbie. He has a few skeletons in his closet, but McCain has spend decades in politics and those ghosts will be making a return. Obama may have an ant hill of dirt that could be tossed on him, but McCain undoubtably has a mountian. Historically the democrats have been pussies and not fought back when challenged by the republicans. The Clintons fought back and won. If Obama does the same he can to. People want to see that their president is someone that will defend himself. Obama can overcome the security issue by showing he has a plan to keep people safe and to help with economy. McCain will be tainted by the failure of Bush and you can bet Obama won't let people forget how often McCain supported Bush. If McCain slings mud and Obama returns the favor McCain will spend most of the election defending his past positions, votes, deals etc ala John Kerry. All said and done when you add in the potential lack of mud slinging, the fact that the hard conservative right may not fully support McCain, the republican backlash we are in the middle of and the fact that Obama is a rock star that people love to hear and want to believe in it ends with Obama wining a very close election. Then again Bush could catch Bin Laden, there could be a turn for the better in Iraq and the economy could be stabilizing and then McCain would probably crush him. Obama needs things to be bad so he can sell change. If things are good. McCain can convince people to trust him.