Quote:
Originally Posted by Axeman
Obama is a very very good speaker. That said he won't be getting the democrat nomination in Denver. If it gets that far the super delegates will continue to break heavily Clinton. Whether the party forces Clinton to take Obama as the vice on the ticket is the real question and does he take it?
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She already has over a 100 delegate lead if you count super delegates. she's wins NY and most likely Califfornia and some of those delegates aren't even awarded on Feb 5th. They're awarded by at party meetings, as you said, are heavily in Clinton's camp.
"On primary day ? Feb. 5 ? 370 of the 441 delegates are allocated proportionally to presidential candidates; 241 of those 370 delegates are allocated based on the vote in each of the state?s 53 Congressional districts. In addition, 129 delegates are allocated to candidates based on the primary vote statewide. On May 18, the remaining 71 delegates are selected from among party leaders and elected representatives."
"New York Democrats have a total of 281 delegates, 151 of whom are elected proportionally based on the results of the Feb. 5 primary within each congressional district. In addition, 45 are automatic and chosen from party leaders. At a state Democratic committee meeting in May, the remaining 85 delegates are selected."
Based on current polls Clinton should get 221 of the delegates that are awarded on that day, plus MOST of the delegates chosen by "party leaders". even if she only got those additonal delegates proportional to the election results that's a total of 315 delegates just from those 2 states. That's puts her at 600 counting what she has now. even if she got NONE from Illinois( she'll get some ) and just 1/3 of the rest on Super Tuesday( she'll get more ) that's another 400 deleagtes. So now she's at 1000, minimum
As long as John Edwards stays in the race he'll take votes and delegates away from Obama. Come convention time he'll have at least 400 delegates of his own. All he has to do is toss them Hillary's way and guess what, she'll have enough to get the nomination.
too bad these kiddies have no clue how elections actually work.