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Originally Posted by GatorB
Kerry had big leads early in 2004 too.
Do the math. The Democrats NEED some of those red states. They can't take the attitude " Fuck those rednecks we don't need them. " 2000 and 2004 prove otherwise. If Al Gore could have won his home state of Tennessee he'd would have been president. In fact any red state with more than 3 electoral votes would have won it for Gore. In fact if Gore would have won NH and it's 4 electoral votes he would have won. Kerry did win NH but lost NM and Iowa 2 states Gore won.
Now say Cinton/Obama win all the states Kerry and Gore both won and also, NH, NM, and Iowa that's 264 electoral votes. So where are the 6 more electoral votes coming from if you are going to ignore the "ignorant rednecks"? And remember if it's McCain/Romney ticket NH will most likely go GOP since Kerry BARELY won it in 2004. So that's 10 electoral votes needed." Also McCain being from Arizona also gets NM. So that's now 15 electoral votes need. If the dems are counting on a strategy where they win either Ohio or Florida they are fucked be cause there is ZERO guarantee they'll win either. And there is no plan B. A Edwards/Richardson ticket is a GUARANTEED winner and the dems are too fucking retarded to see this.
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any democrat strategy has to include one of two things:They either have to take away a republican state or two or they have to win Florida or Ohio. They came within a funky confused ballot and some shady happenings of winning Florida in 2000 and nearly won Ohio in 2004 (again more shady stuff here as well so you would have to expect that again) It is a risk. What I am saying is that they are never going to win Texas or Oklahoma or Alabama or places like that so his being black doesn't matter in those states because they are lost. The states they can compete in, I feel, have less of a redneck vote and are a little more progressive so I think his being black is less of an issue. Also many of these southern states have large black populations. If they turn out and vote for obama that could be enough to win a state or two.
I don't think an Edwards/Richardson ticket is guarantee in any way. There are a lot of people (including democrats) that for some reason don't like Edwards. He has a smugness about him that turns a lot of people off and so far he hasn't even won one primary. The polls show that no candidate is a shoe in at this point. McCain (in the current polls) beats Hillary, Obama and Edwards so I wouldn't go so far as to guarantee anything. Also, if Bloomberg jumps in it could cause a lot of chaos and then who knows what would happen.