Q: In 1996, did you see the potential of the internet already, or are you pretty surprised at how things turned out (from a business perspective)?
A: By 1996, I had been building websites and selling commercial
web software for a few years so I knew that this was going to
change how many things were done. Unfortunately, I was still
working full time on my PhD while working full time on building
sites so had little time to capitalize on it.
Q: Who would you say is instrumental or highly influential in launching your online endeavors?
A: I was lucky to be in a department at Stanford that was one of the
first to put up a webpage in late 1992. A few people showed me how
to setup a webserver and get a T1 to host some pages.
Q: Did it require much investment to get started?
A: I didn't have much cash but was able to get a couple Sun servers
for about $10K. Funded the rest by getting lots of little devel gigs.
The market was so weak for web developers that I was making about
$5/hr after paying out staff. By the time started Friend Finder, I had
about 15 developers who worked on writing banner ad servers and visitor tracking software. Now we have almost 300 people.
Q: Who do you consider to be your peers, adult or mainstream? Seeing that your one if not the most successful in the business, who do you look up to?
A: I don't look around much - mostly towards mainstream sites.
Why is that? and where did you come up with that stat?
Well I see his logic I'm just not smart enough to know whether its actually true or not. I usually stick with my first instinct because when I've changed from it in the past its been a mistake.
Wrong, statistically you have a better chance if you choose another door.
Edit: to be more precise, the actual probability of winning: if you stay: 33%, if you switch: 67%
If you stay or switch your probability of winning is exactly 50%. There are two possible choices and only one of them is right, whether you switch or stay your odds remain the same.
If you stay or switch your probability of winning is exactly 50%. There are two possible choices and only one of them is right, whether you switch or stay your odds remain the same.
Exactly. You went from a 33 1/3% chance of being right, and now that it is 50-50 your odds have decreased? I would sure like to see that explained.
If you stay or switch your probability of winning is exactly 50%. There are two possible choices and only one of them is right, whether you switch or stay your odds remain the same.
Yes this is correct. I'm glad that Linquist's name isnt Mathematician
For those trying to figure out if they should choose a different
door to get the car, here's a little game you can play to test
your idea: http://expos.com/doors.cgi. Hopefully
you can get on a game show and win!
For those trying to figure out if they should choose a different
door to get the car, here's a little game you can play to test
your idea: http://expos.com/doors.cgi. Hopefully
you can get on a game show and win!
With all due respect (one of the times I mean it), can't that be programmed to give those results?
Ok so I googled the Monty Hall Problem and found lots of different explanations for why switching doors is the right thing to do, however none of them are based on sound mathematical principle.
For instance
Let's say that you choose your door (out of 3, of course). Then, without showing what's behind any of the doors, Monty says you can stick with your first choice or you can have both of the two other doors. I think most everyone would then take the two doors collectively.
No matter which door you choose after one of the non-winning doors has been revealed, you still have "two doors collectively".
You'll lose 2/3 of the time if you don't switch. If you do switch, then the prize is still available 2/3 of the time, and you'll make the wrong choice 1/2 the time, so the chance of losing when you switch is only (2/3)*(1/2) = 1/3. You've halved your chance of losing = doubled your chances of winning by switching.
This is also an erroneous statement, because "if you switch" the prize isn't available 2/3 of the time, it's only available half of the time because there are only two choices left.
Regardless of how many choices you started with, when given the option to switch it becomes an entirely new situation, one with only two choices and not three.
I'll keep looking for a better explanation, but at this point none of them have me convinced.
It's very counter-intuitive, but if looked at the right way can be understood.
The advantage to switching comes from the fact that the game show host doesn't open a door at random, he ALWAYS opens a non-winning door.
That is, if the player picks a door with nothing the game host picks the other door with nothing.
And if the player picks the door with a car, the game host randomly picks either of the two doors with nothing
This means there are three possible scenarios, each with equal probability (1/3):
The player picks empty door number 1. The game host picks the other empty door. Switching will win the car.
The player picks empty door number 2. The game host picks the other empty door. Switching will win the car.
The player picks the car. The game host picks either of the two empty doors. Switching will lose.
Kind of hard to get your mind around that one, but I'll be damned if it isn't right.
I've learned from school in math that you should always change your mind if you are presented to this 3 option game problem :D We even did a few tests in class and it showed up to be true.
Now you see the mental mastrubation I have to go through on a daily basis to get andrew to agree with me hahahha the 3 door conversation is like our every day debate. He always pulls some math outta the woodwwork. its good though keeps me on my toes. He is also a ruthless negotiator due to his Jimmy Neutron syndrome
I've learned from school in math that you should always change your mind if you are presented to this 3 option game problem :D We even did a few tests in class and it showed up to be true.
My earth science teacher taught us that if you didn't know touch the tip of your four fingers and smash them on the desk, whichever tingles the most, go with that answer. I did a few of those "test" answers in class ... showed up to be ... eh, true and not so true. ; )
Personally, I am suppose to go with my first inclination, but I always switch. Gets me in trouble everytime, I'm trying to learn to go with my first instinct.
Anyways, let's get some more answers, we're waiting! : )
6. What about that Jerry Wang kid that wanted to borrow one of your servers in the 90s. What deal did he offer you?
Oh, I think his name was Jerry Yang - he started a little website
called Yahoo. One day in 1994 he visited my web development company
looking for someone to give him free hosting for his site (probably
for a cut). Well, to make a sad story short, he didn't host with us.
7. Discuss your fear of flying. How did it come about? Will you ever get on an airplane again?
Ever since I had an engine burst into flames on a flight over the
pacific -- the electrical systems went haywire and not just the passengers
but the stewardesses were going hysterical -- it's been hard to hop in a plane.
But I've resolved to do it this year or become buds with John Madden.
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