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buddyjuf

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#1

Google Stock Drops 50$

02-01-2006, 03:42 AM

The shares (GOOG:GOOG432.66, +5.84, +1.4%) slumped $50.33, or 12%, to $382.33 in Instinet pre-open trading on Friday, however, its earnings excluding certain charges fell well short of Wall Street estimates, hurt by a higher-than-expected tax rate.

Still, the stock bounced off its worst overnight levels -- the stock had plunged as much as 19% in Thursday's after-hours session -- as some Wall Street analyst rushed to defend the stock.

FULL LINK HERE

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo...8FEA0A0D3C4%7D
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Stallion

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#2

02-01-2006, 03:44 AM

damn what a drop..

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Veterans Day

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#3

02-01-2006, 03:50 AM

double profits but still missed estimates will do that to ya

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woj

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#4

02-01-2006, 05:05 AM

this could be the beginning of a ride downward back to $200 :-/

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Veterans Day

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#5

02-01-2006, 05:09 AM

Originally posted by woj

this could be the beginning of a ride downward back to $200 :-/

no, no this is the beginning of stepped up efforts on click fraud, better get those earning estimates up to the street estimates

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#6

02-01-2006, 05:12 AM

Interesting, could be a nice time to buy the near future.
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#7

02-01-2006, 05:12 AM

www.fuckedgoogle.com
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woj

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#8

02-01-2006, 05:18 AM

Originally posted by Veterans Day

no, no this is the beginning of stepped up efforts on click fraud, better get those earning estimates up to the street estimates

They don't really lose any $$ from click fraud, it comes out of advertiser's pockets... and actually the more click fraud there is, the more google makes...
so it's not THAT obvious that eliminating click fraud will increase profits in any way....

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EroticySteve

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#9

02-01-2006, 05:25 AM

Some may say that Google's stock was at an unnatural high.

Unfortunately the stock market can be a rollercoaster in the short-run. Properly played the stock market can show excellent returns.

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EroticySteve

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#10

02-01-2006, 05:31 AM

Originally posted by woj

They don't really lose any $$ from click fraud, it comes out of advertiser's pockets... and actually the more click fraud there is, the more google makes...
so it's not THAT obvious that eliminating click fraud will increase profits in any way....

Click fraud does pose a threat to them. If they acknowledge that click fraud is a serious issue, yet do little to protect their advertisers, this shows a major shift in their business philosophy and it potentially opens them up to an issue of liability.

Advertisers are smarter than they've ever been and know that click fraud hurts their marketing efforts. Click fraud income rightfully belongs to the defrauded advertiser and not the company or the shareholders.

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Lord Nelson

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#11

02-01-2006, 05:33 AM

50% of googles revenue comes from click fraud
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EroticySteve

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#12

02-01-2006, 05:37 AM

Originally posted by Lord Nelson

50% of googles revenue comes from click fraud

Where does 50% come from? I'm kind of in the dark on the financials and press releases.

I assumed 5% to 20% max, but I could be way off.

Do you have a source for that?

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Lord Nelson

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#13

02-01-2006, 05:39 AM

Originally posted by EroticySteve

Where does 50% come from? I'm kind of in the dark on the financials and press releases.

I assumed 5% to 20% max, but I could be way off.

Do you have a source for that?

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#14

02-01-2006, 05:46 AM

I see this as a start of a natural correction to the overspeculation that always happens anymore in the markets.

MS did the same thing a few years back.
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#15

02-01-2006, 05:47 AM

I think 50% sounds agressive. It's also just assumption at this point.

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Veterans Day

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#16

02-01-2006, 05:47 AM

Originally posted by woj

They don't really lose any $$ from click fraud, it comes out of advertiser's pockets... and actually the more click fraud there is, the more google makes...
so it's not THAT obvious that eliminating click fraud will increase profits in any way....

let me rephrase, they need to turn even more of a blind eye in terms of click fraud, to boost profits

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#17

02-01-2006, 05:59 AM

Originally posted by woj

They don't really lose any $$ from click fraud, it comes out of advertiser's pockets... and actually the more click fraud there is, the more google makes...
so it's not THAT obvious that eliminating click fraud will increase profits in any way....

from another board:

For the sake of argument, assume click fraud is real and does account for 50% of Google's ad sales. Yet, still the advertisers buy the ads. Why? Because for them the metric is advertising cost per sale or new customer, not percentage click fraud.

So, 50% click fraud says that if click fraud were eliminated, google could simply double their prices and the advertisers would still find it cost-effective. Sorry, but click fraud won't bring down google (not that you'd find me buying the stock at these prices).

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Lord Nelson

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#18

02-01-2006, 06:09 AM

Originally posted by Gottis

from another board:

For the sake of argument, assume click fraud is real and does account for 50% of Google's ad sales. Yet, still the advertisers buy the ads. Why? Because for them the metric is advertising cost per sale or new customer, not percentage click fraud.

So, 50% click fraud says that if click fraud were eliminated, google could simply double their prices and the advertisers would still find it cost-effective. Sorry, but click fraud won't bring down google (not that you'd find me buying the stock at these prices).

the problem is, click fraud can't eliminated.
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#19

02-01-2006, 06:12 AM

heh damn i just lost 62k from a 50 drop

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#20

02-01-2006, 06:12 AM

When everyone is selling, that is the time to buy.

When everyone is buying, that is the time to sell.

An old friend who made a fortune in the stock market told me that's the secret. It takes courage and discipline to follow that strategy because it always goes against your gut instinct.

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woj

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#21

02-01-2006, 06:14 AM

Originally posted by Gottis

from another board:

For the sake of argument, assume click fraud is real and does account for 50% of Google's ad sales. Yet, still the advertisers buy the ads. Why? Because for them the metric is advertising cost per sale or new customer, not percentage click fraud.

So, 50% click fraud says that if click fraud were eliminated, google could simply double their prices and the advertisers would still find it cost-effective. Sorry, but click fraud won't bring down google (not that you'd find me buying the stock at these prices).

That sounds great in theory, but in practice it may not work our like that. Lets say for example for certain keyword google charges 10 cents per click, and overture charges 5 cents with 50% fraud. Without having any knowledge about click fraud (you don't), buying traffic from overture seems like a better deal. It's pretty much same logic as why $25/signup pps sponsors are less popular than $30+/signup sponsors, payouts could be better with $25 sponsor, but yet if you do a poll on gfy you will find that most wouldn't promote a $25/signup sponsor.

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#22

02-01-2006, 06:15 AM

GOOG is an air baloon company. Their only real product is Adwords. If click fraud brings it down then google is done.

So far, google is loosing the battle with click fraud.
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#23

02-01-2006, 06:42 AM

cpc advertising has a limited lifespan. The majority of advertising in the future will be CPA based... just like it is in adult.

I died.
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#24

02-01-2006, 06:43 AM

Google still has many flaws... :D

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#25

02-02-2006, 04:54 AM

That was bad! I prefer google than any other search engine... mUst have something to do with the lawsuit.
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