Quote:
Originally Posted by Coatsy
Hmm I could see Russia and China doing a lot more than making noise about a war with Iran, they both have a lot of money tied up in Iranian oil. If there was a war I could see China and Russia providing weapons to Iran (If they have not done so already)
If America do go to war with Iran (and win) then in total that will be around 25% of the worlds oil secured in a rather short space of time.
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The people who actually make the plans for these things are thorough in their investigations. For example, the situation in Iraq was not unforseen by someone, but the powers that be made their decision anyway - and ol' georgy boy is paying a price.
In the same way, all possible outcomes will be researched exhaustively, and one of the scenarios will be a worst case scenario where russie and china go all ape shit and do something stupid.
There is risk inherent in any decision. What is most dangerous is the short timelines that politicians deal with, they over-weight the short term and under-weight the long term consequences since their 'lives' are short. The world would be better off if economists made decisions.. and besides, economists do it with models.