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brand0n

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#1

yo boneprone, lets put your skills to the test.

11-17-2005, 02:42 PM

Date & Time Favorite Spread Underdog

11/20 1:00 ET Carolina -3 At Chicago
11/20 1:00 ET Jacksonville -4 At Tennessee
11/20 4:15 ET Indianapolis -5.5 At Cincinnati
11/20 1:00 ET At New England -9.5 New Orleans
11/20 1:00 ET At St. Louis -9.5 Arizona
11/20 1:00 ET At Atlanta -6 Tampa Bay
11/20 1:00 ET At Washington -6 Oakland
11/20 1:00 ET At Dallas -8 Detroit
11/20 1:00 ET At NY Giants -7 Philadelphia
11/20 1:00 ET At Cleveland -2 Miami
11/20 4:05 ET Seattle -12.5 At San Francisco
11/20 4:15 ET At San Diego -10.5 Buffalo
11/20 4:15 ET At Denver -13 NY Jets
11/20 1:00 ET Pittsburgh -4.5 At Baltimore
11/20 8:35 ET Kansas City -7 At Houston
Monday Night Football Point Spread

11/21 9:05 ET At Green Bay -4.5 Minnesota

Call all of these right now. Lets see how many of them you get correct

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brand0n

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#2

11-17-2005, 02:46 PM

Bump so hell see it.

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boneprone

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#3

11-17-2005, 02:48 PM

Lol..

Cant pick every game bro..

But I can pick 3-4 games out of a garbage batch like this on a given week and hit 75% on a pretty consistant basis.

Out of the past dozen picks Ive picked here in the last month or so, Id say im about 85%..

And of the "LOCKS" ive been pretty dead on..

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boneprone

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#4

11-17-2005, 02:50 PM

Ill pick two games out of that bunch..

Colts.. (buy some points and make it -3_

And Giants..

Buy some points and make it -5

There...

Those are my picks..

All the others, its a coin toss.

With the spreads its tough.. Tough matchups this week.

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#5

11-17-2005, 02:50 PM

Originally posted by boneprone

Lol..

Cant pick every game bro..

But I can pick 3-4 games out of a garbage batch like this on a given week and hit 75% on a pretty consistant basis.

Out of the past dozen picks Ive picked here in the last month or so, Id say im about 85%..

And of the "LOCKS" ive been pretty dead on..

So lets see it in action. I just want to get an idea what we agree/disagre on.

want to buy this spot for cheap? it is of course for sale. long term deals are always the best bet. brand0n/ at/ a o l dot commies.
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boneprone

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#6

11-17-2005, 02:52 PM

But no one can put action on EVERY single game on a given week and hit em..

No one serious anyhow.

They key is searching out the picks.. Sifting through the garbage and finding the right bets.. Not just betting on all the games for the hell of it.

Thats how they get you.

Do your homework and research and know your shit, and sift and choose your games and you can work it.

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boneprone

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#7

11-17-2005, 02:53 PM

You disagree on the Colts??

Or the Giants??

I honestly think the other games can go either way..

I could make an argument on either side of those games..

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boneprone

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#8

11-17-2005, 02:54 PM

Hmmm..

If you want some action and have money burning in your pocket and want a third game to have action on, perhaps the KANAS CITY CHEIFS would be a good bet.

Buy 2 points.

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#9

11-17-2005, 02:56 PM

Originally posted by boneprone

Lol..

Cant pick every game bro..

But I can pick 3-4 games out of a garbage batch like this on a given week and hit 75% on a pretty consistant basis.

Out of the past dozen picks Ive picked here in the last month or so, Id say im about 85%..

And of the "LOCKS" ive been pretty dead on..

if you are hitting 75% you're basically wasting your profits.. hit % don't mean shit, units profit means everything..
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#10

11-17-2005, 02:58 PM

profit means everything for me, yes.

Im not going to go out there and throw darts at some games and just pick for the hell of it becasue there is a game. I dont always need action.

I wait for the games, for days, sometimes weeks to find the ones I like, then lay action.

Sometimes I can find 4 games a day to bet on, sometimes 2..

Sometimes 4 per week.. Sometimes 4 per day.

It just depends.

Last edited by boneprone; 11-17-2005, 03:00 PM.

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#11

11-17-2005, 03:02 PM

Is that with mcnabb playing or not?

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boneprone

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#12

11-17-2005, 03:03 PM

Originally posted by brand0n

Is that with mcnabb playing or not?

He wont play.

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#13

11-17-2005, 03:03 PM

Originally posted by Jensen

if you are hitting 75% you're basically wasting your profits.. hit % don't mean shit, units profit means everything..

WTF kind of idiot logic is this? If you hit 75% you make money so how the fuck are you wasting your profits?

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#14

11-17-2005, 03:05 PM

Originally posted by boneprone

He wont play.

McNabb has already been declared out for Sunday's game against the Giants. Mike McMahon is starting in McNabb's place.

This is seeming close to a lock to me.

no to,no mcnabb, westbrook got pretty banged around..

mcmahon is a fuckin loser

shaping to be the BP LOCK OF THE WEEK maybe?

want to buy this spot for cheap? it is of course for sale. long term deals are always the best bet. brand0n/ at/ a o l dot commies.
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#15

11-17-2005, 03:06 PM

Originally posted by chadglni

WTF kind of idiot logic is this? If you hit 75% you make money so how the fuck are you wasting your profits?

by hitting 75% you're wasting the 55% winners that will also give you the profits.. as long as winning % x odds is over 100 you should make the bet..

example: you flip a coin and give me 2.05 on heads and 1.95 on tails.. thats roughly 50/50 in the long run so I'd be an idiot if I skipped betting on heads... the value on heads would be 2.05 x 50 = 102.50 , 2.50% profit in the long run
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#16

11-17-2005, 03:11 PM

Originally posted by Jensen

by hitting 75% you're wasting the 55% winners that will also give you the profits.. as long as winning % x odds is over 100 you should make the bet..

example: you flip a coin and give me 2.05 on heads and 1.95 on tails.. thats roughly 50/50 in the long run so I'd be an idiot if I skipped betting on heads... the value on heads would be 2.05 x 50 = 102.50 , 2.50% profit in the long run

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#17

11-17-2005, 03:15 PM

Originally posted by chadglni

I'm flipping a coin.. I'll give you 55 apples on tails and 45 apples on heads.. if you want to be eating apples in the long run you need to bet on tails..
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boneprone

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#18

11-17-2005, 03:36 PM

Im more of a Watermellon kinda guy...

Do you think you could haul and carry 55 watermellon?

Now that would be a challenge!

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#19

11-17-2005, 03:42 PM

Originally posted by boneprone

Im more of a Watermellon kinda guy...

Do you think you could haul and carry 55 watermellon?

Now that would be a challenge!

I love a challenge..
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#20

11-17-2005, 04:11 PM

Originally posted by Jensen

I'm flipping a coin.. I'll give you 55 apples on tails and 45 apples on heads.. if you want to be eating apples in the long run you need to bet on tails..

I play poker, I would always take a 55% edge but you are assuming unlimited bankroll. If you have 50k to bet and you have a choice of betting 50k on your 75% picks or choosing some 55%'s too because you don't want to "throw away your profits" you are making a mistake. -EV, retarded, bad money management, etc. etc. etc.

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#21

11-17-2005, 04:14 PM

Don't take INDY! They gotta lose eventually, and the Bengals was the team to end a big winning streak last year i think it was...

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#22

11-18-2005, 02:00 AM

Originally posted by chadglni

I play poker, I would always take a 55% edge but you are assuming unlimited bankroll. If you have 50k to bet and you have a choice of betting 50k on your 75% picks or choosing some 55%'s too because you don't want to "throw away your profits" you are making a mistake. -EV, retarded, bad money management, etc. etc. etc.

no I'm not, I'm all pro healthy money management. If you have 50k to bet, invest max 1% per bet and see it grow over time... do you win 75% of your poker hands? nobody will be able to win 75% against the spread in sports.. just not happening over time..

example: hitting 3/4 (75%)would leave you with 1.73 units profit .. nobody can hit 70%+ every day anyway but lets leave that for now

hitting 17/30 (56%) would leave you with 2.47 units profit .. more profits and more spread of risk.. it might be boring, but in the long run it will leave you with more profits, less risk and it is better money management..
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#23

11-18-2005, 02:00 AM

bone prone has skills other than fucking fat chicks?

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#24

11-18-2005, 03:34 AM

Originally posted by StickyGreen

Don't take INDY! They gotta lose eventually, and the Bengals was the team to end a big winning streak last year i think it was...

True.. they did. But I see indy beating them this week.

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