Quote:
Originally Posted by jayeff
You have re-stated the commonly perceived problems associated with change, without addressing the inevitability of change. Your assessment of the problems is roughly correct, but not the implication that we can therefore stop time.
Your view also overlooks how cheap and effective content is, compared to other ways of attracting audiences. And although excess demand has allowed us to skew normal business models thus far, there is no basis on which to assume we can continue to do that in a maturing market.
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The "inevitability of change" merely says that Porn as a business online is likley to be the first confirmed death from filesharing and "web 2.0". With the addition of 2257 rules and everything else under the sun against commercial producers, and fewer restrictions placed on non-commercial sites, it is sadly very likely that Porn as business, membership site wise, is a dinosaur just looking for a place to fossilize.
It is pretty clear that the only DNA from the current system that will likely survive is the pure PPV / On Demand companies that will be sending that material to set top boxes or windows media center to be enjoyed on the big screen, once again tightening the commercial porn business down to a small group of companies thathave the money to step into that industry properly (with rights to the material - nobody has defined the line where "web rights" stop and "DVD rights" begin, gentlemen, start your lawyers).
There is great potential that the "webtv" model might have not been wrong, just about 10-15 years too early.
Using porn (or sexy pictures) to lure people to other things is potentially functional business model, except the current underlying support networks for traffic (from TGPs to link sites to blogs to review sites) would all pretty much dry up and go away (no money, no websites).
Admitting that the porn membership site model is likely a dodo is hard. It is harder when there is no model in place to replace it. That, for me, is going to be the real play in the long run.