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It is so early that anything could still happen. There isn't a single candidate out there that doesn't have some kind of flaw. Obama is black, Edwards failed as a vice pres candidate and his wife has cancer so he may be distracted, Hilary is very polarizing, Giuliani is basically a social liberal and McCain, among other flaws, seems desperate and comes off as a guy that will say anything to get elected.
A lot of things could happen in the next 1.5 years that would change the face of the election. At this point it is all speculation. You can't talk about who has a chance and who doesn't until the primaries start.
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