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lenny, the spyware programs work best when they are invisible (or barely visible). They play games like changing linking codes, redirecting on join pages, etc. It's all in a day's work.
If they start directly taking traffic away to other sites at a noticable level (ie, conversion drop off really bad... wait, that is already happening) then the programs will have to start looking into WHY.
If the affiliates get poor conversions but the program is doing well, that should be a tip off the the programs that they are victims of spyware.
You also have to remember that codec installers are often not interested in that specific surfer, but rather to use his network connected PC to spam others. There are many ways to play the game, not all of them as direct as you might think (like keylogging passwords for bank accounts, perhaps?)
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