Originally Posted by nick3131

I understand your point of view completely.

But to me, its simpler then that. You use the information that you are given. If he is shooting 20%, then odds say every shot he takes has a 20% chance of making it.

If I ask you if there is 2, 2 gallon containers full of water, how much water could you pour from them. Someone can say "well what if the water is frozen". To me you're doing the same thing. "What if he made 20 and missed 80".