Quote:
Originally Posted by RawAlex
Nick, sorry, but you need to go back and take a basic stats course to understand what you are getting into. 20% doesn't mean that every fifth ball goes in, but that over a sample range 20% of the balls went in. This is no way to accurately predict the percentage of sequential goals with the data you present.
Now, assumimg that the current shot was a goal, the chance that the next shot is also a goal is 20% - because the odds of the shot going in don't change because of the previous goal. So you are at 20%. Now, there is a 20% chance that the one after it is a goal as well, so the number straight lined is about 16%... but that is a very straight line interpretation of the math.
So, sorry, you won't make it as a math or stats major.
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Yeah, if he provided a shot history then a decent value could be found.
For example, these two shooters both with 20% overall.
Each hit 16 out of 80 shoots
Where "1" equals a hit.
shooter a -
11000010
00000000
10000000
00100000
01010100
00011100
01000000
00000111
10000000
00000000
Shooter b -
11000000
00000101
00110000
10000001
00000000
00000000
01001000
10000010
00100100
00000011
It's clear that shooter "b" has an 80% odds of hitting exactly 2 shots out of
eight while shooter "a" has about 0% odds.
BUTTTTTT!! They both shot 20% overall.
He won't accept that though.