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#1

Real Estate Bubble Bursting?: All eyes on SAN DIEGO

08-08-2005, 03:35 PM

http://news.yahoo.com/s/latimests/al...rketinsandiego

"Amid concern that prices may be peaking, more homeowners are selling, doubling the number of single-family houses and condos on the market from a year ago. Yet fewer are finding takers. Homes that a year or two ago sold virtually overnight ? in many cases triggering bidding wars ? are on the market for weeks."

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#2

08-08-2005, 03:36 PM

One of my best friends just bought a home in San Diego.

Ouch!

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#3

08-08-2005, 03:41 PM

I guess Lars was right!

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#4

08-08-2005, 03:43 PM

Out west? Possibly - back East? Not yet... may have a week or so left

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#5

08-08-2005, 03:44 PM

I predict the bust will come in October. October seems to be a good month for financial meltdowns.

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#6

08-08-2005, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by Harmon

Out west? Possibly - back East? Not yet... may have a week or so left

There was a real estate crash here in the Philippines after the 1997 Asian economic meltdown. The real crash happened some years after though when President Estrada was ousted. Not a bad ride though. $2 per square meter in 1979 now costs $60 to $100 a square m. Not a bad appreciation despite the falling value of the peso.

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#7

08-08-2005, 03:46 PM

ouch. Memphis is where its at. One of the safest places to invest in real estate in many aspects. Strongly considering buying 2 rental houses within the next 6 months in a suburb.
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#8

08-08-2005, 03:50 PM

Alot of talk has focused on California or Florida as areas that would possibly see a bubble. Here's the list of the 13 riskiest housing markets from the August Kiplingers magazine:

Boston, MA
New York, NY
Ft. Lauderdale, FL
Washington, DC
Detroit, MI
Los Angeles, CA
San Francisco, CA
Minneapolis, MN
Providence, RI
Sacramento, CA
Denver, CO
Miami, FL
Tampa-St.Petersburg, FL

Keep in mind, this will effect you if..

A) Want to sell your home and the value decreases
B) Carry an adjustable rate mortgage and the rates go up
C) Want to take out equity on your property

If you are able to make your mortgage payment now and it is fixed, any of this news should not worry you. And it would recover eventually, even if it dips.

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#9

08-08-2005, 03:57 PM

I own in Tampa - St. Pete, right now everything is still real hot and very overpriced. I really lucked out and bought for under value and right before everything got crazy. If I sold my home today I would make at least +50%.
It's crazy how much things change.

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#10

08-08-2005, 04:02 PM

you can still make a profit from a real estate sale

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#11

08-08-2005, 08:12 PM

In 2000 there was a dip in housing as well but it rocketed back up. I'm not sure if this IS the beginning of the burst of the bubble. Maybe a slight hiccup?

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#12

08-08-2005, 08:36 PM

I'm fully expecting a crash because the whole story of my life has been "buy high, sell low" --- but a lot of the supposed experts here in SD claim that any bubble burst will be moderate at worst, because of a growing job market and the lack of developable (is that a word? lol) land in the metro area....

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#13

08-08-2005, 08:39 PM

here in Phoenix the housing market is doing great, I have been out looking for a house for my mom and most new homes are sold out, they say they have new phases starting in 2-3 month, but the prices are gonna be much higher. One guy told me they have a meeting every tuesday and raise the prices 2-3k ..every week.

I am putting my home up for sale this week by owner, starting at 800k, will take 700k min. Custom home on almost 2 acres.

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#14

08-08-2005, 08:41 PM

The economy in san diego is so diversified and unemployment so low...if it dips i would buy more rather than sell.
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#15

08-08-2005, 08:43 PM

Sounds great Venus, and I hope that you get it. The good thing is, that of the realestate market pops in the US, prices will fall here.

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#16

08-08-2005, 08:46 PM

venus,

where is your property located? any pics?
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#17

08-08-2005, 08:51 PM

When the real estate buble does burst I will be glad. Will curb some of the egos around here from the high and mightly real estate investors. Shit reminds me of the .com boom with everyone buying property as investments regardless of how ridiculous the prices are.

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#18

08-08-2005, 09:04 PM

it will alWays be a safe investment. as population continues to grow

might take a dip but it will always rebound

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#19

08-08-2005, 09:07 PM

Queen Creek, just below Mesa ... I live in an equestrian community (HOA), a place where you can ride your horse down the street or to the store. Last month I think it was, the Mayor of Queen Creek had a "ride your horse to work day".
yes I have some pics, the tree's in my yard are small since I just had the landscaping done out front. Now I have to landscape around the barn

Originally posted by ardy6931

venus,

where is your property located? any pics?

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#20

08-08-2005, 09:14 PM

I think I will get it, there are some houses not far from me that are in the 800k range, about 500-600 ft bigger then mine, but not fenced or anything else. My house was built in 2004.

I have white horse fencing around the entire property, I have a $50,000 barn that has water, electricity, misters and fans in it, I had sod put down for the pasture and a sprinker system installed for it (so my horses could eat grass like normal horses) and about $10,000 in landscaping done so far.

Originally posted by pornguy

Sounds great Venus, and I hope that you get it. The good thing is, that of the realestate market pops in the US, prices will fall here.

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#21

08-08-2005, 09:17 PM

all these people going for variable rate mortgages when the bubble pops , the amount of foreclosed properties will be scary
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#22

08-08-2005, 09:18 PM

Originally posted by Ghost Pro Sales

Alot of talk has focused on California or Florida as areas that would possibly see a bubble. Here's the list of the 13 riskiest housing markets from the August Kiplingers magazine:

Boston, MA
New York, NY
Ft. Lauderdale, FL
Washington, DC
Detroit, MI
Los Angeles, CA
San Francisco, CA
Minneapolis, MN
Providence, RI
Sacramento, CA
Denver, CO
Miami, FL
Tampa-St.Petersburg, FL

Keep in mind, this will effect you if..

A) Want to sell your home and the value decreases
B) Carry an adjustable rate mortgage and the rates go up
C) Want to take out equity on your property

If you are able to make your mortgage payment now and it is fixed, any of this news should not worry you. And it would recover eventually, even if it dips.

I am surprised Vegas is not on that list. Prices are WAY inflated here.

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#23

08-08-2005, 09:27 PM

the bubble cant burst, Bush wont let it, what do you think is keeping our economy alive.

Our economy doing good is only an illusion, when the war in Iraq is over and all those thousands of national guard troops come home, and when all those truck driver and other contractors come home and when interest rates go up, you will see the real state of our economy.

Originally posted by tony404

all these people going for variable rate mortgages when the bubble pops , the amount of foreclosed properties will be scary

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#24

08-08-2005, 09:37 PM

Originally posted by tony404

all these people going for variable rate mortgages when the bubble pops , the amount of foreclosed properties will be scary

The first casualty of the early 1990's bubble burst in Southern California were the ARM people who put only 1% or less down.

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#25

08-09-2005, 10:20 AM

If it has to burst, I hope it bursts soon.
If it doesnt burst, I hope prices level out.

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#26

08-09-2005, 11:12 AM

It's nuts out here. Many houses have doubled in value in the past 12 months. I just got in on a deal, but I wouldn't be so confident that the bubble is going to burst. Risky? No.

Look, people need somewhere to live. The places that have seemingly inflated values are like that for the reason. Around here, there is hardly an inch of undeveloped land. People are going so far as to rebuilding on the same lot with a two story home over twice the size.

Supply and demand my friends. Some areas are at no risk whatsoever. We won't see a major retreat in values, it wont happen. Unless people have equity in their houses and are willing to forsake that values won't plummet like a stock.

People are equating a bubble in a fashion akin to the stock market. That's totally innacurate.

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#27

08-09-2005, 11:20 AM

Originally posted by tony404

all these people going for variable rate mortgages when the bubble pops , the amount of foreclosed properties will be scary

Absolutely Tony. It will be ugly.

I have to admit I predicted the first signs of the crash would come a year earlier than they did. but here they come....

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#28

08-09-2005, 03:00 PM

Originally posted by Ghost Pro Sales

Alot of talk has focused on California or Florida as areas that would possibly see a bubble. Here's the list of the 13 riskiest housing markets from the August Kiplingers magazine:

Boston, MA
New York, NY
Ft. Lauderdale, FL
Washington, DC
Detroit, MI
Los Angeles, CA
San Francisco, CA
Minneapolis, MN
Providence, RI
Sacramento, CA
Denver, CO
Miami, FL
Tampa-St.Petersburg, FL

Keep in mind, this will effect you if..

A) Want to sell your home and the value decreases
B) Carry an adjustable rate mortgage and the rates go up
C) Want to take out equity on your property

If you are able to make your mortgage payment now and it is fixed, any of this news should not worry you. And it would recover eventually, even if it dips.

And my friend is so happy he passed his real estate exam.......

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#29

08-09-2005, 04:07 PM

I hope theres a depression, our industry will thrive, along with liquir & weed sales.

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#30

08-09-2005, 04:09 PM

no weed there though

yeah but i would spend all my money on way overpriced weed.

Originally posted by detoxed

ouch. Memphis is where its at. One of the safest places to invest in real estate in many aspects. Strongly considering buying 2 rental houses within the next 6 months in a suburb.

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#31

08-09-2005, 04:10 PM

Originally posted by tony404

all these people going for variable rate mortgages when the bubble pops , the amount of foreclosed properties will be scary

And if that happens, and you're smart, you will make a lot of !!
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#32

08-09-2005, 04:12 PM

Originally posted by $5 submissions

The first casualty of the early 1990's bubble burst in Southern California were the ARM people who put only 1% or less down.

Yep. These zero down loans and home equity loans where you can borrow more than 100% of the home value are just nuts. There WILL be people who will find out they can't afford home ownership.
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#33

08-09-2005, 04:15 PM

Damn, thank god Seattle isn't in there. At least my house is safe for a bit... I hope...

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#34

08-09-2005, 04:20 PM

I noticed this in SLO county a few months ago...houses sitting longer than the last year's norm of overnight sales...

It was only a matter of time, now the next question is how long of a flat is the market going to sit on...

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#35

08-09-2005, 04:23 PM

Originally posted by venus

the bubble cant burst, Bush wont let it, what do you think is keeping our economy alive.

Our economy doing good is only an illusion, when the war in Iraq is over and all those thousands of national guard troops come home, and when all those truck driver and other contractors come home and when interest rates go up, you will see the real state of our economy.

speaking of truck drives, saw a few minutes on the news this morning that was very bad news in general for them and the economy at large...

apparently this gas hike has caused a substantial number (not sure how substantial) of previous 'owner operator' truck drivers have either gone over to company trucks or looking for other lines of work...won't be much longer until that gets passed along to everything those trucks are carting around :/

the rest of '05 looks to be an interesting time...

.

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#36

08-09-2005, 10:18 PM

Originally posted by pr0

I hope theres a depression, our industry will thrive, along with liquir & weed sales.

But a depression would fuck everything else up

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#37

08-09-2005, 10:20 PM

people will only get fucked in the ass for so long, ya know?
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#38

08-09-2005, 11:10 PM

Originally posted by $5 submissions

But a depression would fuck everything else up

A depression would suck ass in many ways for sure.

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#39

08-09-2005, 11:12 PM

Just a matter of time cause interest rates keep going higher and higher.........

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#40

08-09-2005, 11:25 PM

Originally posted by $5 submissions

But a depression would fuck everything else up

True but knowing your style, you'd find a silver lining somewhere.

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#41

08-10-2005, 05:22 AM

Originally posted by lchaim

True but knowing your style, you'd find a silver lining somewhere.

Well, I like to think positive... as they say... a crisis is just an opportunity in disguise. But it is indisputable that a depression (as the post I was responding ot mentioned) would be catastrophic for the world economy.

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#42

08-10-2005, 05:39 AM

I jost got offered 700k by a developer for my house, he wants to knock it down and put up 2 new homes.

not bad for a 150k investment 11 years ago.
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#43

08-10-2005, 05:44 AM

Originally posted by Fred Quimby

I jost got offered 700k by a developer for my house, he wants to knock it down and put up 2 new homes.

not bad for a 150k investment 11 years ago.

not bad at all!

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#44

08-10-2005, 06:25 AM

Originally posted by tony404

all these people going for variable rate mortgages when the bubble pops , the amount of foreclosed properties will be scary

Yep, it's gonna be great! All these idiots are gonna lose, I'll be right there picking up a few
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#45

08-10-2005, 06:27 AM

Originally posted by sweetcuties

Yep, it's gonna be great! All these idiots are gonna lose, I'll be right there picking up a few

Margins probably depend on when you go in. Usually it reaches a crescendo after a slow but deepening downturn.

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#46

08-10-2005, 06:30 AM

Originally posted by sweetcuties

Yep, it's gonna be great! All these idiots are gonna lose, I'll be right there picking up a few

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#47

08-10-2005, 06:33 AM

A bit off topic but... what do you guys think will be the overall economic impact if the bubble DOES burst? Regional meltdown or is there no such thing as regional economic effects in today's globalized economy?

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#48

08-10-2005, 06:50 AM

Originally posted by Fred Quimby

I jost got offered 700k by a developer for my house, he wants to knock it down and put up 2 new homes.

not bad for a 150k investment 11 years ago.

since when living in a house is called an investment? maybe your car is investment as well? oh no, it's getting cheaper so it's not an investment.

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#49

08-10-2005, 07:07 AM

Originally posted by $5 submissions

"Amid concern that prices may be peaking, more homeowners are selling, doubling the number of single-family houses and condos on the market from a year ago. Yet fewer are finding takers. Homes that a year or two ago sold virtually overnight ? in many cases triggering bidding wars ? are on the market for weeks."

the sky is falling, the sky is falling!
houses have been on the market for weeks! we're doomed!

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#50

08-10-2005, 07:10 AM

Originally posted by 12clicks

the sky is falling, the sky is falling!
houses have been on the market for weeks! we're doomed!

Unfortunately, fear and greed are main movers of markets. While some people can be calm and see opportunity throughout the process, the vast majority are driven by either of these two emotions. The effects can be crushing. It's mostly based on perception.

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