I hate to say shaving, but...(Warning, Business Thread)
 

How many times has this happened to you?

I sign up for a new program (not necessarily new, just a program I've never pushed before)
I test it out with some traffic, and it converts like gangbusters.

So I ramp up the traffic a little bit more, and it still converts like gangbusters.

So now my eyes are filled with $$$$ after the first two weeks, so I wage an all out campaign to promote the site(s), and then the conversions go to absolute shit.
From 1 in 250-500 to 1 in 5000-10,000.

This has happened so many times with so many programs it's not even funny.

There are some programs that are so consistent that I could set my watch by them, they always convert within a certain range (plus or minus a standard deviation) and have for years. Same thing goes for paysites I've owned in the past. But 98%+ of the new sponsors I try follow the exact same pattern I've described above.

Things that make you go hmmmmmmmm

You are assuming though that most of those new programs even understand how to shave someone. Trust me that is not the case, most have not even figured out the complexities of setting up an RSS feed.

It really seems to just be a natural occurance in the industry. At first I swore there had to be foul play, yet eventually I came to the conclusion that it was just to common to be foul play and it happens with every program and site type.

I have also seen it running my own paysites as well. I may not see it in overall every day numbers which seem to keep increasing ever so slowly. However I can look at certain affiliates and walla they went from 1:500 to 1:5000 with no damn good reason. While others who were at like 1:3000 suddenly go to 1:100 out of the blue. I have tried to track down the reasoning and look for anything foul like spyware or other crap and rarely do I ever find any reasons though.

companies have to shave to keep up with webmaster demands. that's just part of the biz.

Remember I didn't say necessarily new programs, just programs that I haven't tried before. Some of them have been around since the beginning of internet porn.

Also, I'm not talking about a small statistical sample, I'm talking about hundreds of thousands of clicks, and after the first two weeks or so the conversions go to shit and never come back. I'm not talking about 100 clicks a day for several months, I'm talking about 10,000+ clicks a day.

<insert jew screwing someone out of money joke here>

I tell you again, we no shave...

Proof: http://www.legendsofamerica.com/phot...s/HairyGuy.jpg

ADG Webmaster

quit crying goy.

Similar experiences here, but only with a 2 programs I finally dropped. 1:400 for two months, then the signups stopped, completely, pulled links after 0:26000.

The second one just got like 500 hits daily, didn't really promote them, but it averaged at 25 signups a month, for over a year. Then I pushed in traffic, for two days the conversion rates stayed like all those months before, then it was like a cut and I did around 1:2000 for a week, went to 1:4000 the next, then I kicked them as well.

Shaving ? Who knows, maybe just bad luck, but in general ratios get worse for me as soon as I start sending alot of hits...and I don't talk about flooding with 404 traffic, same traffic sources.

You just have to look at the stats some heavy hitters publish here, same phenomenon, they rarely convert at ratios better than 1:1500-2000

Maybe your traffic sources are starting to get tired of the sites prehaps...

dude..try us out...i have consistent sales everyday...from multiple traffic sources...havent lost a webmaster yet

Same thing noticed here. Not all but some do it.

saturation factor kicking in maybe?

if i see conversion going from 1:300 to 1:700 just for a day or 2 it worries me already let alone seeing 1:300 to 1:5000-10000.. I'd freak out.. don't think I've promoted 1 of those in a long time thou.

the avg surfer looks at the same 10 sites,so could it be you got exposure to those surfers in the first few weeks. Then you were old news. Ive seen that with our sites, we find a new place to market get a shitload of sign ups then it drys up.

There have been a couple of remarks like this in the thread.

I've thought of this of course, but there are sites that I've been promoting for 3+ years from the same traffic sources and sales are very consistent (plus or minus a standard deviation)

If saturation were the case, it would take alot longer than a couple of weeks. Also, why would the surfers click on the ads for the site if they weren't interested in it? There are no blind links in this equation, in fact I usually put the price out there for them to see ahead of time. If it were saturation I could understand less click throughs to the sponsor, but not the same number of click throughs and less sales.

Also why would saturation be the case for every other sponsor except for the two that are always consistent for me?

i think its saturation. especially if you're talking galleries.

I've seen this sometimes with sites who change something about their system, be it the landing page, processor, etc....

I've also seen it with ones where nothing has seemingly changed and under easy-to-gauge traffic cases and am inclined to agree with you Lenny. I truly believe some programs do show great conversions at the start perhaps even padding sales on to get a new affiliate excited hoping they will then leave their links up or not check stats again for awhile while they benefit. :2 cents:

We are the opposite LOL, when a new affiliate starts they have to be patient until the free members start converting into paid, but then i tonly gets better from there and snowballs :)

I promiss that we dont shave and you will see $$$$ signs.

I know of 2 of my affiliates who's traffic fluctuates like yourself. One week they convert around 1:200 and get 25+ signups, then the next they're sending the same hits and converting around 1:1500 with obviously less signups. Often they msg me and we discuss the stats and possible causes but when nothing has changed it just doesn't seem to line up. I just assume it is a saturation thing in these cases. :(

I experience the same thing and yeah it makes you wonder. I also find when a sponser has a "special hig payout promo" day and I pump in lots of extra traffic ratios will go to shit. Been burnt on that a lot. :disgust

Another thing I'm finding lately though is that sales seem to fluctuate madly at times. Feb and March for me have been all over the place. In March I've had my three highest sales days ever... and also had my three worst!

Case in point this is from one of my best sponsers that is normally fairly stable.

2007-03-14 1579 12 $420 1:131
2007-03-15 1517 0 $0 n/a

Exact same traffic. Join page hits shown.

I have seen it many times,

''padding sales on to get a new affiliate excited'':thumbsup

when you say "I test it out with some traffic" do you buy that traffic or its from your sites that you already have?

More common than one thinks.

saturation that would effect ratios that drastic cannot happen overnight

Totally off topic, but are you still running TFTM under a different name?

Yep. sounds like the reverse shave. Get you real good ratios upfront to get you turn the traffic spigot on full force.

TFTM? What's that?

Alot more comments about saturation in this thread.
See post #15.

I have sites I've been pushing for years with galleries listed at the same TGP's, and sales keep humming along.
How is it I try a new program and it converts great at first and then nosedives in a couple of weeks, and you call that saturation? So one programs site never becomes saturated and another programs site is saturated after they've seen it twice? Makes no sense.

Lenny2, where have you been?

I was hoping you would continue the traffic/sales competitions...

ie, theHun paired with Hundies.

happened to me few times,

it sucks

i shave my balls

What about a sponsor youve pushed consistently at 1:700 for about 2 years suddenly going to crap and hitting 1:3000 ~ yes I feel like crying.

Lenny2 - its something that has been going on for years - and I do agree with you as Ive done similar testing when the source of traffic stays the same (usually SE or LL,TGP)
The only variable Ive been able to come up with that would explain part of the problem is a change in processor scrubbing filtering - although if you are comparing two programs that use the same processor that should take that out of the equation.
Other than that I still keep what a good friend told me many years ago in the back of my mind - there isnt a program out there that doesnt shave in one way or another - its all in how you define it :)
When I find someone doing the "initial push" or the ratchet down the sales during higher payouts - I play them for as long as sales stay better than a certain level - then drop them and move on to the next sponsor that I can play for two or three weeks :thumbsup

just sign up for my site , I can give you the people that send traffic now and you can ask them, and like above I have no clue how it would even work, I use ccbill anyway. Thanks

Have you checked out the tours of the sites you've been testing?

Sponsor A has updating/dynamic tours
Sponsor B has static tour

If your traffic source is made up of many repeat visitors, the tours could explain why the surfers would choose to revisit and join sponsor A, but fail to revisit sponsor B after 2-3 times and seeing no changes. :2 cents:

I dont know if any fuckers shave or not - Its simple - FUCK EM OFF if you dont like the stats - its their loss.

Like I say - FUCK EM RIGHT OFF - give no reason, just move along the bus.

:)

Is it possible that your "all out" campaign has a substantially different quality of traffic that affects your previously good ratios?

I agree with some of this. I disagree with the thought that sponsors would shave you during bonus payout days or weekends.
The bonus payouts they do cost them a fortune and are done specifically to get new affiliates to try out the program. If they hope to keep any of your traffic after the promo period is over they have to convert well, so if anything they would turn the shave off during the promo period and back on afterwards. :2 cents:

Ahhh, well a couple of things happened.

I took a job with Epiccash. I'm not there any longer, but while I was in their employ I didn't think it would be good to be on the boards pushing another sponsor.

Also, alot of people seemed to be convinced that the results weren't real. I was looking for a way to test out new sponsors without taking a financial risk, and at the same time the sponsor would get exposure and possibly new affiliates out of the deal.
BUT, alot of people on the boards seemed to think that the sponsors were padding my sales to make themselves look good on GFY so they weren't taking the results seriously.

I did have a few sponsors contact me and ask about doing a test like that, but I haven't really thought about it in a long time.

because you have alot of the samesurfers, so when you promote a new site there is a rush-in effect to something they've never seen and the longer its promoted the smaller the pool of potential joins.

if it were oversaturation, they would not keep clicking your ads.

trust your instinct.

Maybe the problem is something else entirely, namely the unlikelihood that when ratios are 1:500 or whatever, there really is the consistency which people claim.

As anyone who bets colors in roulette knows, near-even chances "cluster". You don't just see red-black-red-black, but frequent runs of a single color. If we know that, perhaps from experience, how do we kid ourselves that it is reasonable to expect greater consistency from odds as long as conversion rates commonly represent?

If a sponsor converts over a year at a given ratio, unless you are sending a huge amount of traffic, it wouldn't be surprizing if not a single month matched that annual rate. If you really do have a sponsor converting at normal (low) ratios who is reporting consistent stats month in and month out, that is the sponsor of whom I would suspicious.

part could be the return visitors.

I just choked on my cheerios... Ratios like that would turn a pimp into a pauper.
Sounds like these "heavy hitters" need to promote my sites!
Seriously http://www.HowIgotRich.com is no joke, everyone should be getting a check from me :)

All of my top affiliates have been very consistent with sales, for years.
The ones that are always chasing something "new" seem to be the ones with very irregular conversions.

Good point for affiliates that see good conversions that fall off over time.
No tour updates = fewer sales

werd

Thank You

PS - conversion ratio is a function of traffic source, period. Given the proper source of traffic, any site could convert at 1:50 (given stable hosting and processing).

two words


Spy + Ware

try mine. no shaving guarantee. Only hairy

Really? So then why do I see such dramatic swings with a stable traffic source?

Conversion ratio is a function of several different things. A link that says "click here for more free videos" will convert at a drastically different ratio than a link that says "click here to join for 2.95 with a major credit card".....regardless of traffic source.

Also, to be perfectly fair I'm not comparing program A's ratios with program B's. I'm comparing sales volume on program A in weeks 1 & 2 to sales volume on program A in weeks 3 and beyond. :2 cents:

If shaving is as common as you say, why are more sponsors not caught doing it? There is no shave function in CCBill / NATS, which leaves it to the sponsor to mess with the actual join links on the site. Surely someone would notice crap like that?

Thank you... I hate it when people start comparing other people's conversion ratios with their own, as if that member actually means something outside of your own traffic.