1% and shutting down a recurring paysite - Page 2 - GoFuckYourself.com

Drake · 07-02-2003, 08:06 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Kimmykim
I'm supposed to give you a solution within 36 hours of hearing this, and for free?

;-}}}}

Yes, and we're all ears

StuartD · 07-02-2003, 08:18 PM

Don't take any new memberships, and give existing members access for a dollar a month.

Screw it.. you're pulling the plug. Starting on the 1st, cut everyone's bills down to a buck.

3 months from now... you'll still have just about all of your 12k recurs. Who's gonna cancel a dollar membership?

More importantly.. who'd do a charge back on it?

3 months down the line, when you're cb% is still safe... turn it off.

cash69 · 07-02-2003, 08:24 PM

if your going to close your sites.. wait until there's a few weeks left.. send them an email that says they have to sign something and fax it back.. maybe like 30% will.. then you can keep those recurrings.. but the one's that don't.. your going to cancel them anyway so who cares

stocktrader23 · 07-02-2003, 08:27 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by SinEmpire
Ugh, does this topic give anyone else chest pain?

Brad

No, but some of the responses do.

stocktrader23 · 07-02-2003, 08:28 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by cash69
if your going to close your sites.. wait until there's a few weeks left.. send them an email that says they have to sign something and fax it back.. maybe like 30% will.. then you can keep those recurrings.. but the one's that don't.. your going to cancel them anyway so who cares

Perfect example as noted in my previous post.

Keev · 07-02-2003, 09:17 PM

Sounds like visa / mc need to deal with fraudulant customers who knowingly freeload knowing they can chargebck and get refunds anytime they like with visa , and mc at the cost of the merchants pocketbook and resources...

Snowone · 07-02-2003, 09:34 PM

Shouldn't the transaction volume of the current month and the month used to calculate the number of chargebacks be figured into the comparison?

In Quiet's example the number of charge backs was 90 3 months ago on a volume of 18,000 transactions. So the expected chargeback volume this month should be 30 on a volume of 6000 transactions. Which still works out to .5 percent. That is if the volume of transactions is figured in...

Otherwise, isn't VISA just creating a bastard number?

mpegposter · 07-02-2003, 09:58 PM

Well,

you'd have to take a look at where your members are charging back. If you get 100 per month (half an entire day's sales) that's 3 per day, that's a whole lot of chargebacks frankly, at eighteen bucks.

If most of them are from members who joined for 1 month, you can calculate what it takes to make it over that 'hump' and maybe gradually phase it out.

I would wager that longer-term rebills who have seen you on their statement for a few months are low chargeback risks. So I don't think it's exactly fair to equate those to initial spur-of-the-moment purchasers who may be more inclined to seek a free ride.

Maybe my numbers are off, and the monkey wrench is people who are allowed to charge back 5-6 months retroactively. But I don't see your rebills as the threat, just your newer members.

quiet · 07-02-2003, 10:06 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by mpegposter
[B]Well,

you'd have to take a look at where your members are charging back. If you get 100 per month (half an entire day's sales) that's 3 per day, that's a whole lot of chargebacks frankly, at eighteen bucks.

actually, the total number of 'sales' ie: transactions for any given day is 600+ (200+ first time plus 400+ recurring). and my chargeback ratio is actually slightly lower than 0.5% - i used that figure for ease of example.

mpegposter · 07-02-2003, 10:14 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by quiet

actually, the total number of 'sales' ie: transactions for any given day is 600+ (200+ first time plus 400+ recurring). and my chargeback ratio is actually slightly lower than 0.5% - i used that figure for ease of example.

So then, do some easy math and see where the majority percentage of your chargebacks come from; people with 1 or less charges, or members with 2 or more charges/rebills. Should be able to figure with some accuracy what you'd need to thwart disaster.

quiet · 07-02-2003, 10:15 PM

anyway, it's too bad they are calculating cb% this way. i was hoping to stop marketing the site at some point in the future, and then just run off recurs. the recurs are worth a lot of money - it would have been nice to only have to update the site and run the members servers for a couple of months, then shut down.

the costs of doing that would be very small, and the profit would very nice. a good way to end things. ah well.

i suppose it's either sell, or possibly do what donnie said and run recurs as long as they let you, and sacrifice the reserve.

quiet · 07-02-2003, 10:18 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by mpegposter

So then, do some easy math and see where the majority percentage of your chargebacks come from; people with 1 or less charges, or members with 2 or more charges/rebills. Should be able to figure with some accuracy what you'd need to thwart disaster.

they are spread out everywhere. there are more people charging back on initial su's, but those who cb after more than a month will usually cb several transactions. more than two months, and so on.

mpegposter · 07-02-2003, 10:21 PM

In that case I'd taper it off as Donnie had suggested. Tough call, if you've already done that math. Good luck.

Shap · 07-02-2003, 11:12 PM

Hey Quiet. Glad you brought this up. This is exactly what I asked in the original post about the 1% rate. It really is a shame. Like yourself the idea of marketing marketing marketing and then letting something run its course was on our minds. However with the new limit you basically have to be operating at the top of your game at all times and the second you aren't you close down....<Sigh> that's about all i can say.

SleazyDream · 07-02-2003, 11:16 PM

gota love rules that keep changing..........

Kimmykim · 07-02-2003, 11:20 PM

Hey quiet, if you wanna sell, let me know. I'm buying.

Shoplifter · 07-02-2003, 11:48 PM

Start selling $2 non recurring memberships. The chance of a chargeback on such a small denomination is unlikely. It will pump up your transaction volume while your rebills expire out.

Or just sell your site.

Kevin2 · 07-03-2003, 03:22 AM

If we had an option that we can turn on so that when a new member signs up and he has done chargebacks in the past that he is rejected there and then with the reason "You have charged back a CC transaction in the past" or something like that.

If Visa and the 3rd party billers included something like this in their signup process I think it may help us.

Carrie · 07-03-2003, 03:43 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Kimmykim

Rumors abound... 2% 'chargeback' rate for checks coming down the pipe from the Fed...

I DO NOT know that it is true, just that I have heard it.

*slams head on desk repeatedly*
Why do these people keep fining the merchants for fraud perpetrated by the customers???

Everyone I've seen talking about accepting checks hold that the fraud on them is about 30% - and by the time the check does come back fraudulent the guys has already been in your site downloading everything for a week.

Dropping back to a 2% cap on bad checks is even more insane than Visa's 1% - I'm just not understanding the thinking of these people whatsoever.
Do they HONESTLY believe that all of the customers are 100% pure innocent angels and it's ONLY the webmasters/merchants who are fucking people over?? We have NO control over whether some scammer is typing in bad check info when he's sitting on our join form...
excuse me while I go slam my head on the desk some more. Maybe I'll dumb myself down enough to be on the same level as these idiots.
*sigh*

Carrie · 07-03-2003, 03:47 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Kevin2
If we had an option that we can turn on so that when a new member signs up and he has done chargebacks in the past that he is rejected there and then with the reason "You have charged back a CC transaction in the past" or something like that.

If Visa and the 3rd party billers included something like this in their signup process I think it may help us.

Most processors actually *do* have a database of cc's that are permantly banned from being used again through their system, no matter what site the person is trying to join.
Someone grabbed my debit card number a few months back and went nutty joining porn sites. 5 of the sites/processors I called (including Ibill) made sure to make it clear to me that if they gave me a refund, I would never again be able to buy anything through them as my card would go into a banned list.

I actually really liked the way they all presented it to me, all with the same tone of "are you really SURE you want to do this?" in their voice, which would immediately let a "friendly fraud" customer know that it would be the absolute last time he'd be able to do it. I was ecstatic over the option and seriously considered calling every processor I could find and having them put the number into their banned database - the only thing that kept me from doing it is that some of these content providers use the same processing that the adult sites do, and I was getting a new debit card anyway.

quiet · 07-03-2003, 03:50 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Kimmykim
Hey quiet, if you wanna sell, let me know. I'm buying.

you'll be the first to know

i've just finished up a pile of long term advertising deals, so now it's unlikely i'll be selling for at least 12 months (if i sell)...

Kevin2 · 07-03-2003, 04:04 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Carrie
Someone grabbed my debit card number a few months back and went nutty joining porn sites.

I'm not talking about someone stealing your card and using it to signup for sites.

What I meant was that we should have an option that we can select so that during the signup process the code checks to see if that customer has ever done a chargeback before and if so then we as the owner of the site can reject the customer. Not the bank.
We should be able to select who joins our sites but if VISA can't give us the information to make a decision about this then why should we pay the penalty. I know VISA couldn't give two hoots about us but this may be a great help for us to filter out the serial CB assholes out there.

SGS · 07-03-2003, 05:12 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Shoplifter
Start selling $2 non recurring memberships. The chance of a chargeback on such a small denomination is unlikely. It will pump up your transaction volume while your rebills expire out.

Or just sell your site.

Chargebacks seem to happen a lot when a spouse is confronted with the news that her partner likes to jerk off to porn. A partner who is trying to save face in this kind of situation would despute even a single penny.

GoLiaT · 07-03-2003, 05:31 AM

cant you set it so you just accept new members from a special
country with the lowest cb ?

PornMeister · 07-03-2003, 05:36 AM

set up a new corporation. Get some friend to be the officer of that company. Sell your site to that company on credit => that company now has liabilities towards your other company. Shut the site down. Chargebacks come. Fines come. Company will be liquidated. Visa gets nothing as there are also other liabilities.

fiveyes · 07-03-2003, 09:12 AM

current daily:
200 new joins
400 recuring
3 chargebacks (@ 0.5% of 600)

Assuming the site is stable at this point,
where new joins balance drop outs, there is:
app. 1 2/3% turnover/day, or 98.3% expected daily shrinkage w/o new joins

Using: <B>#recurs * (daily shrinkage)^#days</B> (where #recurs = 400, daily shrinkage = .983, #days = 30)

400 * (0.983)^30 = 400 * 0.597868311 =~
app. 239 recurs/day after one month

BUT, due to the previous month's activity, still with 3 chargebacks daily, so:

3/239 = 1.26% Chargeback Ratio after 30 days w/o new joins.

And it's worse after 60 days; if there are still 3 CB's/day- you'd have a 1.52% Chargeback Ratio.

The way I see it, you either need to find a rampdown percentage of new joins that keeps you around a 0.75% CB ratio (easily computed if the CB lag time is known) or work out a deal ahead of time with your processor on the expected.

Or, of course, just sell it to KK and let her deal with it.

cafeaulait · 07-03-2003, 09:26 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by cash69
if your going to close your sites.. wait until there's a few weeks left.. send them an email that says they have to sign something and fax it back.. maybe like 30% will.. then you can keep those recurrings.. but the one's that don't.. your going to cancel them anyway so who cares

That's 4000 faxes !

Kimmykim · 07-03-2003, 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by fiveyes

Or, of course, just sell it to KK and let her deal with it.

Now we're talking ;)

07-02-2003, 08:01 PM	#51
BigFrog Confirmed User Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 2,057	50

07-02-2003, 08:18 PM	#53
StuartD Sofa King Band Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Outside the box Posts: 29,903	Don't take any new memberships, and give existing members access for a dollar a month. Screw it.. you're pulling the plug. Starting on the 1st, cut everyone's bills down to a buck. 3 months from now... you'll still have just about all of your 12k recurs. Who's gonna cancel a dollar membership? More importantly.. who'd do a charge back on it? 3 months down the line, when you're cb% is still safe... turn it off. __________________ This is me on facebook This is me on twitter

07-02-2003, 09:17 PM	#57
Keev Confirmed User Join Date: May 2001 Posts: 5,335	Sounds like visa / mc need to deal with fraudulant customers who knowingly freeload knowing they can chargebck and get refunds anytime they like with visa , and mc at the cost of the merchants pocketbook and resources... __________________ ReliableServers.com - NO REF LINK!

07-02-2003, 09:58 PM	#59
mpegposter Confirmed User Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Tri-State Posts: 483	Well, you'd have to take a look at where your members are charging back. If you get 100 per month (half an entire day's sales) that's 3 per day, that's a whole lot of chargebacks frankly, at eighteen bucks. If most of them are from members who joined for 1 month, you can calculate what it takes to make it over that 'hump' and maybe gradually phase it out. I would wager that longer-term rebills who have seen you on their statement for a few months are low chargeback risks. So I don't think it's exactly fair to equate those to initial spur-of-the-moment purchasers who may be more inclined to seek a free ride. Maybe my numbers are off, and the monkey wrench is people who are allowed to charge back 5-6 months retroactively. But I don't see your rebills as the threat, just your newer members. __________________ The voice of the Moral Minority. New Sponsor Converting Like Hell!

07-02-2003, 10:21 PM	#64
mpegposter Confirmed User Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Tri-State Posts: 483	In that case I'd taper it off as Donnie had suggested. Tough call, if you've already done that math. Good luck. __________________ The voice of the Moral Minority. New Sponsor Converting Like Hell!

07-02-2003, 08:24 PM	#54
cash69 So Fucking Banned Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: chandler, az Posts: 1,052	if your going to close your sites.. wait until there's a few weeks left.. send them an email that says they have to sign something and fax it back.. maybe like 30% will.. then you can keep those recurrings.. but the one's that don't.. your going to cancel them anyway so who cares

07-02-2003, 09:34 PM	#58
Snowone Confirmed User Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Around the Bend Posts: 183	Shouldn't the transaction volume of the current month and the month used to calculate the number of chargebacks be figured into the comparison? In Quiet's example the number of charge backs was 90 3 months ago on a volume of 18,000 transactions. So the expected chargeback volume this month should be 30 on a volume of 6000 transactions. Which still works out to .5 percent. That is if the volume of transactions is figured in... Otherwise, isn't VISA just creating a bastard number?

07-02-2003, 10:15 PM	#62
quiet we'll miss you our friend. RIP Industry Role: Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: Fernie, BC Posts: 25,115	anyway, it's too bad they are calculating cb% this way. i was hoping to stop marketing the site at some point in the future, and then just run off recurs. the recurs are worth a lot of money - it would have been nice to only have to update the site and run the members servers for a couple of months, then shut down. the costs of doing that would be very small, and the profit would very nice. a good way to end things. ah well. i suppose it's either sell, or possibly do what donnie said and run recurs as long as they let you, and sacrifice the reserve.

07-02-2003, 11:12 PM	#65
Shap Confirmed User Industry Role: Join Date: May 2001 Posts: 8,313	Hey Quiet. Glad you brought this up. This is exactly what I asked in the original post about the 1% rate. It really is a shame. Like yourself the idea of marketing marketing marketing and then letting something run its course was on our minds. However with the new limit you basically have to be operating at the top of your game at all times and the second you aren't you close down....<Sigh> that's about all i can say.

07-02-2003, 11:16 PM	#66
SleazyDream I'm here for SPORT Industry Role: Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: Phone # (401) 285-0696 Posts: 41,470	gota love rules that keep changing.......... __________________ This dog, is dog, a dog, good dog, way dog, to dog, keep dog, an dog, idiot dog, busy dog, for dog, 20 dog, seconds dog! Now read without the word dog.

07-02-2003, 11:20 PM	#67
Kimmykim bitchslapping zebras!!!!! Industry Role: Join Date: Jun 2001 Location: In a shack by the beach Posts: 16,015	Hey quiet, if you wanna sell, let me know. I'm buying.

07-02-2003, 11:48 PM	#68
Shoplifter Richest man in Babylon Industry Role: Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Posts: 10,002 Posts: 5,742	Start selling $2 non recurring memberships. The chance of a chargeback on such a small denomination is unlikely. It will pump up your transaction volume while your rebills expire out. Or just sell your site.

07-03-2003, 03:22 AM	#69
Kevin2 Confirmed User Join Date: May 2003 Location: Australia Posts: 1,429	If we had an option that we can turn on so that when a new member signs up and he has done chargebacks in the past that he is rejected there and then with the reason "You have charged back a CC transaction in the past" or something like that. If Visa and the 3rd party billers included something like this in their signup process I think it may help us. __________________ Webmasters Trade Traffic!!!

07-03-2003, 05:31 AM	#75
GoLiaT Confirmed User Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 1,130	cant you set it so you just accept new members from a special country with the lowest cb ? __________________ "where ever you go..there you are."

07-03-2003, 05:36 AM	#76
PornMeister Confirmed User Join Date: Aug 2001 Posts: 158	set up a new corporation. Get some friend to be the officer of that company. Sell your site to that company on credit => that company now has liabilities towards your other company. Shut the site down. Chargebacks come. Fines come. Company will be liquidated. Visa gets nothing as there are also other liabilities.

07-03-2003, 09:12 AM	#77
fiveyes Confirmed User Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: New Orleans Posts: 1,680	current daily: 200 new joins 400 recuring 3 chargebacks (@ 0.5% of 600) Assuming the site is stable at this point, where new joins balance drop outs, there is: app. 1 2/3% turnover/day, or 98.3% expected daily shrinkage w/o new joins Using: <B>#recurs * (daily shrinkage)^#days</B> (where #recurs = 400, daily shrinkage = .983, #days = 30) 400 * (0.983)^30 = 400 * 0.597868311 =~ app. 239 recurs/day after one month BUT, due to the previous month's activity, still with 3 chargebacks daily, so: 3/239 = 1.26% Chargeback Ratio after 30 days w/o new joins. And it's worse after 60 days; if there are still 3 CB's/day- you'd have a 1.52% Chargeback Ratio. The way I see it, you either need to find a rampdown percentage of new joins that keeps you around a 0.75% CB ratio (easily computed if the CB lag time is known) or work out a deal ahead of time with your processor on the expected. Or, of course, just sell it to KK and let her deal with it. __________________ <CENTER><A HREF="http://www.hot-off-bourbon.com/" target="_blank"><IMG SRC="http://www.hot-off-bourbon.com/images/hob-logosmall.jpg" border="0"></A> <FONT face="Comic Sans MS" SIZE="-1"><I>Mardi Gras, Spring Break, Wet-T, Night Club Action, UpSkirt, Oil Wrestling, Voyeur</I></FONT></CENTER>